Ashton, Niki
	Bird, Cyara
	Klassen, Judy
	Klyne, Ken
	McLean, Ralph
Incumbent:
	Niki Ashton

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			87027 85148 30539 25057 433173.82 km² 0.2/km²
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Niki Ashton **	13487	45.00%
	Rebecca Chartrand	12575	42.00%
	Kyle G. Mirecki	3090	10.30%
	August Hastmann	537	1.80%
	Zachary Linnick	255	0.90%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		5540	26.13%
		10962	51.70%
		4213	19.87%
		490	2.31%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Churchill    (92.17% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Selkirk-Interlake    (7.74% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Provencher    (0.08% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide

	21/10/19	Tony Ducey 24.137.73.188
NDP hold here, I think Ashton would have won here even if the NDP went to single digits in seat count.
	18/09/19	R.O. 24.146.17.200
the provincial ndp swept the northern ridings , returning all the area ridings to the ndp at the provincial level so perhaps that offers some hope for the federal ndp that the ridings voters naturally lean ndp and might stay ndp even in a bad year. But the federal race is a different election , either way feel it leans ndp at this point
	08/09/19	South Islander 205.250.53.29
Ashton held on in 2015 by 3% against a lesser-known LPC candidate. Since then, her father has also lost his provincial seat contained in this district while Ashton's current opponent Klassen wrestled her seat away from the NDP. The province went 47/37/14/3 LPC/CPC/NDP/GPC in 2015. Campaign Research and Ekos are some of the few pollsters that shows separate results for MB, and CR shows 41/41/8/10 in MB with the NDP in 4th while Ekos shows 35/32/18/6 (and the PCC in 4th with 9%). Small sample sizes and methodology differences account for the discrepancy, and the current provincial election might also be distorting these results. However, it seems clear that that pollsters who lump SK and MB together as ‘prairies’ might lead people to the probably incorrect conclusion that the LPC are in trouble in MB, at least as many MBNDP voters are LPC voters as federal NDP voters, and that the LPC still have a shot of finishing first in the province again. I don't think Ashton is toast, but neither do I think there is any solid basis to conclude that she is probably safe against Klassen with her party struggling this badly at the federal level. It might be easier to tell once the MB election is over and the federal election gets underway.
	07/09/19	A.S. 99.225.32.21
With the federal party flirting with single digits, we must keep in mind the ‘there are no safe Dippers’ party line--if her dad could lose provincially, who says Niki still can't lose federally. And if it were to be at the hands of the Libs, who better than Judy Klaasen? Except that this is rural Manitoba in 2019, which might mean more of a ‘split anti-NDP right’ situation--Libs too plumped within the reserves, Cons too outflanked by the reserves, etc. Also, even in defeat in 1993, Rod Murphy got, at 36.9%, the second highest NDP share in the country; so the floor's high. (Ashton did worse in her first run in '06, but only because of Bev Desjarlais running as an independent. Together, they got 45%.)
	13/04/19	OttawaGuy94 184.146.168.170
While Judy Klassen is running for the Libers it should not change much, Ashton survived 2015 and should easily win this time too.
	27/03/19	Laurence Putnam 50.68.187.24
Now a ten-year incumbent, Ashton has become a fixture of Manitoba politics in her own right. Such is her profile now that I think she can probably weather just about any storm that comes her way. It was close last time and that was back when everybody loved Trudeau's ‘sunny ways’. That's all over now. Even with a weak national NDP campaign, Ashton will be able to carry this.
	01/03/19	MF 69.159.84.69
The Liberals came close in the red wave of 2015, but with the Trudeau honeymoon over and Niki Ashton's profile continuing to grow I expect the NDP to win this by a more comfortable margin this year.
	27/02/19	Sam 86.28.79.130
Although this riding has been strong for the NDP, who have an edge with a high-profile incumbent. The provincial riding of Keewatinook which makes up a large proportion of the riding went for the Liberals, despite the weakness of said party provincially. The NDP certainly aren't ruled out but the Liberals may seriously contest it and have a good chance. It probably leans NDP for now, but this could change.