Election Prediction Project

Churchill-Keewatinook Aski
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:05:08

Constituency Profile


Ashton, Niki

Bird, Cyara

Klassen, Judy

Klyne, Ken

McLean, Ralph


Niki Ashton

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



433173.82 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Niki Ashton ** 1348745.00%
Rebecca Chartrand 1257542.00%
Kyle G. Mirecki 309010.30%
August Hastmann 5371.80%
Zachary Linnick 2550.90%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (92.17% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (7.74% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.08% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
NDP hold here, I think Ashton would have won here even if the NDP went to single digits in seat count.
18/09/19 R.O.
the provincial ndp swept the northern ridings , returning all the area ridings to the ndp at the provincial level so perhaps that offers some hope for the federal ndp that the ridings voters naturally lean ndp and might stay ndp even in a bad year. But the federal race is a different election , either way feel it leans ndp at this point
08/09/19 South Islander
Ashton held on in 2015 by 3% against a lesser-known LPC candidate. Since then, her father has also lost his provincial seat contained in this district while Ashton's current opponent Klassen wrestled her seat away from the NDP. The province went 47/37/14/3 LPC/CPC/NDP/GPC in 2015. Campaign Research and Ekos are some of the few pollsters that shows separate results for MB, and CR shows 41/41/8/10 in MB with the NDP in 4th while Ekos shows 35/32/18/6 (and the PCC in 4th with 9%). Small sample sizes and methodology differences account for the discrepancy, and the current provincial election might also be distorting these results. However, it seems clear that that pollsters who lump SK and MB together as ‘prairies’ might lead people to the probably incorrect conclusion that the LPC are in trouble in MB, at least as many MBNDP voters are LPC voters as federal NDP voters, and that the LPC still have a shot of finishing first in the province again. I don't think Ashton is toast, but neither do I think there is any solid basis to conclude that she is probably safe against Klassen with her party struggling this badly at the federal level. It might be easier to tell once the MB election is over and the federal election gets underway.
07/09/19 A.S.
With the federal party flirting with single digits, we must keep in mind the ‘there are no safe Dippers’ party line--if her dad could lose provincially, who says Niki still can't lose federally. And if it were to be at the hands of the Libs, who better than Judy Klaasen? Except that this is rural Manitoba in 2019, which might mean more of a ‘split anti-NDP right’ situation--Libs too plumped within the reserves, Cons too outflanked by the reserves, etc. Also, even in defeat in 1993, Rod Murphy got, at 36.9%, the second highest NDP share in the country; so the floor's high. (Ashton did worse in her first run in '06, but only because of Bev Desjarlais running as an independent. Together, they got 45%.)
13/04/19 OttawaGuy94
While Judy Klassen is running for the Libers it should not change much, Ashton survived 2015 and should easily win this time too.
27/03/19 Laurence Putnam
Now a ten-year incumbent, Ashton has become a fixture of Manitoba politics in her own right. Such is her profile now that I think she can probably weather just about any storm that comes her way. It was close last time and that was back when everybody loved Trudeau's ‘sunny ways’. That's all over now. Even with a weak national NDP campaign, Ashton will be able to carry this.
01/03/19 MF
The Liberals came close in the red wave of 2015, but with the Trudeau honeymoon over and Niki Ashton's profile continuing to grow I expect the NDP to win this by a more comfortable margin this year.
27/02/19 Sam
Although this riding has been strong for the NDP, who have an edge with a high-profile incumbent. The provincial riding of Keewatinook which makes up a large proportion of the riding went for the Liberals, despite the weakness of said party provincially. The NDP certainly aren't ruled out but the Liberals may seriously contest it and have a good chance. It probably leans NDP for now, but this could change.

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