Election Prediction Project

Dauphin-Swan River-Neepawa
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:05:20

Constituency Profile


Godon, Frank

Johnson, Jenni

Lewycky, Laverne

Mazier, Dan

Scofield-Singh, Cathy

Storey, Kate


Robert Sopuck

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



50818.98 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Robert Sopuck ** 1927646.30%
Ray Piché 1227629.50%
Laverne M. Lewycky 509712.30%
Inky Mark 33578.10%
Kate Storey 15923.80%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 270.08%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette
   (85.61% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (10.09% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (4.31% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
No incumbent here but I think the CPC will hold on to this riding.
14/09/19 R.O.
No incumbent as Robert Sopuck retired but been a fairly reliable conservative riding , provincial seats also stayed pc even as northern Manitoba went ndp .
31/08/19 A.S.
Remember that Sopuck was up against *two* former MPs in 2015 (Mark & Lewycky)--and he still chalked up 46%. Back in the not-terribly-long-ago days when the NDP and Liberals were actually competitive hereabouts, 46% would have been high par for the PCs. Such is rural Prairie electoral sorting.
21/06/19 Laurence Putnam
Regardless of national outcome, Tories should be flirting with 60% here.
16/03/19 Sam
The Conservatives only look as if they dropped substantially because of Inky Mark's candidacy. Even with a great MP in Robert Sopuck retiring, they will win big here.
23/02/19 M. Lunn
Rural Manitoba which outside the north is solidly Tory so easy Tory hold.

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