Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:00:05

Constituency Profile


Clark, Hailey

Friesen, Tamela

Godron, Evangeline

Goodale, Ralph

Kram, Michael

Milanovski, Mario


Ralph Goodale

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



61.98 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Ralph Goodale ** 2355255.10%
Michael Kram 1293130.30%
April Bourgeois 536212.60%
Frances Simonson 8782.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
I think the Liberals would lose this riding if they had anyone else but Goodale running here. I think this is Goodale's last election but he'll win tomorrow.
14/10/19 FH
Looks like a very tight race however at a Thanksgiving dinner it was clear that the NDP vote at the table was all going to Goodale. Seems to be a deeper appreciation that Goodale has done a lot for Regina, notwithstanding some of the dislike for the PM and this may carry him to victory. One CPC supporter was not voting. He said he couldn't vote for Goodale but couldn't vote against him.
11/10/19 R.O.
A post on ipolitics indicates there is a riding poll for this riding and it’s a close race Between Goodale and cpc candidate Michael Kram.
Goodale locked in dead heat with Conservative rival in Regina—Wascana, new poll shows
By Victoria Gibson. Published on Oct 11, 2019 9:48am
09/10/19 HistoryMaker
I’ve been in the riding several times, door knocking and interacting with the public. In 2015 it was fairly clear that Kram was “taking one for the team”, but the hatred for Ralph’s decisions and the disgust of the Liberal brand is stronger now that I have ever seen it. It will come down to who can get out the vote, but this is going to be close, And I think it’s going to go Blue.
06/10/19 R.O.
Polls for Saskatchewan all show the cpc way ahead although haven’t seen anything specific for Regina or this riding, interesting to see a riding poll for this one . Its clearly going to be closer than 2015 and more like other years when the riding closer.
01/10/19 Marco Ricci
University of Regina politics professor Jim Farney predicts Ralph Goodale will have a closer race this year than in 2015, but will probably be re-elected. CBC polling analyst Éric Grenier also predicts Goodale will be re-elected:
26/09/19 Former Saskie
This will be Ralph's waterloo... he will have trouble fighting the anti-Trudeau wave. Despite an impressive set of wins since 1993, Goodale will finally need to find gainful employment off the public payroll
16/09/19 HAS
Liberals are toxic on the prairies and I think that King Ralph will go down in flames this go round. Michael Kram is young and has an impressive resume. Since Michael is having a second crack at this riding (and Ralph) he now has the name recognition that he lacked before. I predict that Michael Kram will be the giant killer and win a trip to Ottawa in October.
14/09/19 A.S.
Just about the only thing endangering Goodale is his being next door to Scheer; and it's not like Scheer brings *that* much regional-game-changing leadership magnetism to the table (given present regional representation, it's kind of redundant, really). It'll take majority-territory Scheer and a much deeper swoon in Liberal fortunes to take this one out--otherwise, wait 'til Goodale retires.
23/05/19 Marco Ricci
I don't see Ralph Goodale losing here this year. If he was able to win in 2011 when the Ignatieff Liberals were reduced to only 34 seats across Canada, I don't see why he would lose now when he's a cabinet minister again and in a much stronger position. He won by 25 points in 2015, and although Conservative candidate Michael Kram can do better this time, the odds are still in Goodale's favour.
16/04/19 Craig
I'm going to boldly change my opinion here. The Liberals, and especially Trudeau, are absolutely radioactive in Saskatchewan and Alberta and I don't think even Ralph Goodale is insulated anymore. He may be too close to Trudeau anyway and the SNC-Lavalin scandal has destroyed them in the Prairies. It also helps that Scheer is next door, and with Lewvan likely an easy pickup, they can focus resources here.
The end result could be the Liberals completely shut out between Winnipeg and Surrey and I don't see this being an exception. This is not 2011 either - the Liberal support is even more concentrated. The blue tide will hence sweep Goodale aside.
08/04/19 Sam
I see a lot of circumstances where Ralph Goodale wins, but like @Stevo, I also see a significant number of circumstances where he loses. Some pundits expect him to drop out of the race entirely. Like in Scarborough-Agincourt and Markham-Thornhill, we shouldn't just see a Liberal win in 2011 and assume it's permanent.
03/04/19 Stevo
I wouldn't say this is as safe for Goodale as others believe. Trudeau is now poisonous in the Prairies, utterly despised in Alberta and Saskatchewan in particular. I will say this much : if the Conservatives manage a majority government (unlikely, but not unimaginable), Goodale will fall. He will not retain this redoubt as he did in the 2011 CPC majority, not in the current political climate. Anything short of a CPC majority and it will be very difficult to take him down.
16/03/19 Laurence Putnam
There is a high likelihood that Ralph Goodale will be the last Liberal left standing between Winnipeg and Vancouver.
It is a near impossibility that he loses the riding; and if he were to lose it, it wouldn't be on this go-around. He's had closer calls than this (2000, 2011) and one might reasonably assume that much of the Saskatchewan NDP, disgruntled at the current leadership, is all too happy to rally behind Ralph.
06/03/19 MF
Not a Liberal seat, but a Ralph Goodale seat. It's his as long as he wants it.
26/02/19 Craig
Ralph Goodale should win again. Even though his party and leader are quite unpopular in the Prairies, this is a more affluent and educated riding which would be more receptive, and the strong hatred is most concentrated in the rural ridings. Since there is no rural component to this riding, it should stay red. If Goodale decided to retire, this would probably be a tight race.
19/02/19 Tory Revert
The only safe Liberal seat in Saskatchewan. Ralph is a prince here, but the Liberal label is poison.

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