Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Saskatoon-Grasswood
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:00:08
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Friesen, Mark

Muggli, Tracy

Ritchie, Erika

Sinclair, Neil

Waugh, Kevin


Incumbent:

Kevin Waugh

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

82946
72010

36211
33909

335.90 km²
246.9/km²


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Kevin Waugh 1916641.60%
Scott Bell 1390930.20%
Tracy Muggli 1216526.40%
Mark Bigland-Pritchard 8461.80%


2011 Results (redistributed)

1811950.23%
1437339.84%
26427.32%
9002.49%
Other 430.12%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Blackstrap
   (93.13% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Saskatoon-Humboldt
   (6.87% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


06/10/19 R.O.
24.146.17.200
This riding was predicted to go ndp in 2015, funny how much has changed in the years since. Kevin Waugh should be able to hold the riding this year as the cpc polling well in Saskatchewan.
14/09/19 A.S.
99.225.32.21
That the NDP finished closer to the hitherto-no-hope LPC than CPC in '15 is telling--and the same Lib's running, which *might* mean second-place dynamic in that direction this time. Which, together with suburban growth and, of course, native-son Scheer, only further enables Waugh.
18/07/19 Laurence Putnam
96.53.49.70
There simply exists no foundational basis to believe the Tories would suddenly lose this riding, which they already hold, in an election led by a Saskatchewan leader. The NDP are the only natural threat here and under Singh that's not going to happen.
07/07/19 Billy P.
70.64.21.244
Should be no contest. I live in this riding and have no party affiliation. Waugh is very well liked, hard working, and visible. Liberals ran a very good candidate last time, and I expect most of her support to go to PC's. Still 100% in my predictions on this site, and I think this one is easy.
01/03/19 Sam
109.148.237.245
This is obviously not as safe as the rural Saskatchewan ridings for the Conservatives, but in 2015 they did far better than expected here despite the open seat. With the Conservatives doing better in the West, they should hold this.
28/02/19 Dr.Bear
204.187.20.70
Another seat where the Liberals appeared to have played spoiler to the NDP in Saskatchewan. Currently the NDP are going nowhere in their birth province. Unless things chance, Team Orange will be kicked out of the prairies. The question is, can the Liberals capitalize on former NDP support to oust the incumbent Conservative. I would say no, at the moment, however we are still many months away and things can (and will) change.



Navigate to Canada 2019 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2019 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2019 - Email Webmaster