Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:00:11

Constituency Profile


Card, Claire

Hayton, Susan

Norris, Jan

Penteado, Guto

Tochor, Corey

Willerton, Jeff


Brad Trost

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



68.91 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Brad Trost ** 1859241.50%
Claire Card 1411531.50%
Cynthia Marie Block 1128725.20%
Valerie Harvey 6861.50%
Eric Matthew Schalm 930.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3100.88%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (68.75% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (31.25% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
If Brad Trost can win this riding it shows how Conservative it is, I think with him out of the picture it means a bigger CPC win here tomorrow.
14/09/19 A.S.
I'm *tempted* to withhold a prediction here as opposed to Grasswood, in part to account for the urban and ‘University’ element, in part to account for Claire Card running again (at least nominally bowing to the proposition that these environs are still more ‘NDP-winnable’ than ‘Lib-winnable’), and in part allowing for vestigial Brad Trost stink in a post-Trost era. Though maybe I shouldn't, as the heart of non-CPC support is really a south-of-College-Drive rump and the bulk of the riding remains suburban. But I'll withhold, anyway, just in case...
14/09/19 R.O.
With the departure of Brad Trost a seat that could potentially get more interesting although Corey Tochor is a strong candidate for the cpc so likely they hold the riding.
15/07/19 Laurence Putnam
Departure of Brad Trost, rebound year for the Tories in general and Saskatchewan leader no less and an NDP in turmoil, particularly in Saskatchewan, all adds up to a certain victory for the Conservatives even if not a blow-out.
31/03/19 Craig
If this was 2015, I'd call this too close to call. However, the Liberals have become toxic in most of the Prairies (even though this is a fairly well educated riding) and Singh is not well-liked among the NDP in Saskatchewan.
Sure, losing Brad Trost may keep social conservatives out of the fray (although he wasn't the best fit for this riding - he's a perfect match for a rural riding though), but it should be an easy Conservative hold. Maybe in 2023 or so, the Liberals or NDP may get a chance to reclaim this, if they find a leader more in line with Saskatchewan.
27/03/19 Sam
This is a probable Conservative hold, and if Brad Trost, a strong campaigner but an otherwise poor fit for the riding was to hold on as he has done, the Conservatives should win this. Their strength in the Prairies should secure that anyway.
Hard to believe the most highly educated and affluent riding in Saskatchewan was represented by the likes of Brad Trost. Anyway the Conservatives should have no problem keeping this with a more palatable candidate.
28/02/19 Dr.Bear
Looks to me that the Liberals played spoiler to the NDP in 2015. 25K for the Liberals (up from less than 10K in 2011) kept the NDP (31.5K) from topping the CPC (41.5K). I'm wondering if centre-left support is going to galvanize around one party or another, and finally knock of the CPC. Currently I say CPC hold but I think the Liberals have a fighting chance. NDP, at the moment, have poisoned the soil in Saskatchewan and are likely to be shut out of their birthplace (once again).

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