Election Prediction Project

Saskatoon West
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:00:14

Constituency Profile


Benson, Sheri

Hayes, Isaac

Redekopp, Brad

Rukh, Shah

Setyo, Shawn


Sheri Benson

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



91.40 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Sheri Benson 1492139.60%
Randy Donauer 1240132.90%
Lisa Abbott 923424.50%
Lois Carol Mitchell 6581.70%
Jim Pankiw 2710.70%
Bronek Hart 2300.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (73.61% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (26.39% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

20/10/19 R.O.
If the ndp win a seat in Saskatchewan this would be the most likely riding as it was redistributed in 2015 into an urban only riding. That being said it was still reasonably close in 2015 and could be close again this year. Brad Redekopp is the new cpc candidate this election, I don’t believe he’s ran federally before. its also the only riding Scheer visited to campaign in this election in Saskatchewan from what I saw.
15/10/19 Riverdale Resident
As of Oct 14, 338 has this as leaning NDP, with a 6% lead and 8% margin of error.
Definitely not a Conservative lock!
12/10/19 Sam
As Gumpfor rightly mentioned, the presence of the poor and seniors communities play a big role here - and Sheri Benson has been big on these files; that is arguably her biggest asset. Still, the Conservatives are favourites here, and I would expect a win for them, but I'm still not seeing a big one for them here.
11/10/19 Ontario Voter
This needs to be moved back into the too close to call column. 338Canada has this as a toss up with a slight lead for the NDP. It’s clear this isn’t as easy for the Conservatives to take as they thought it would be.
20/09/19 Gumpfor
I drive in Saskatoon West riding each day and I am seeing more and more NDP signs poping up on private property each day! I agree the Conservative man has worked hard and he has a good shot but the NDP lady is well liked and this riding is a poorer riding with a lot of seniors in it! I feel it would be wise not to give it to the Conservatives yet but to have it too close to call till the end of the election.
16/09/19 HAS
Even the NDP don't seem to like the NDP anymore and Liberal hopes in Saskatchewan are pie in the sky. An easy pickup for the Conservatives.
31/08/19 A.S.
How deep *is* Sask's favourite-son embrace of Scheer, anyway? Seems to me that any potential NDP rejection here has more to do with Jagmeet's impending Audrey-dom (and unlike Audrey in '93, *not* counteracted by provincial strength), with a touch of ‘Erin Weir’ fallout for good measure. Or, for that matter, how high is the Con ceiling in Saskatoon West? If anything, Benson's share in '15 was pressed down more by Justinmania bandwagoneering, which is something that *could* be strategically ameliorated in '19--even if involves piling the resources so that she becomes the Ralph Goodale of the NDP, an Prairie oasis amidst wasteland...
31/08/19 themusicgod1
from the outside this one looked as though it was going to be a relatively safe NDP hold: but now that I've been here for a few months, I can see this was an illusion and there's plenty of disaffected people here who are going to try to sweep the Trudeau liberals out by voting CPC, far more than by voting NDP again.
One thing's for sure: the liberals haven't got a hope in hell here.
18/07/19 Laurence Putnam
The unpopular leadership of Jagmeet Singh (particularly in Saskatchewan) versus the Tories' homegrown leader is how this race will be decided. Benson might be a good MP but so too were Lorne Nystrom, Dennis Gruending and many other former NDP MPs from Saskatchewan that got turfed when the tide turned.
13/07/19 themusicgod1
Saskatoon West will either go NDP or CPC at this rate, probably NDP again but by a narrow margin.
31/03/19 Craig
With Singh not being well-liked among the Saskatchewan NDP and the Liberals hated now with the SNC-Lavalin saga, this should join almost every other riding between Abbotsford and Headlingley in the blue column. Sheri Benson may be working hard, but the tide is against her.
That said, the Conservatives holding on to Saskatoon West in a future election under different leaders may be a tall order. But for 2019, this flips CPC.
08/03/19 Sam
Another tight one that people haven't wanted to predict, the NDP is not gaining in Saskatchewan even though this riding is urban. It will go Conservative on a good night despite Sheri Benson being a hard-working MP who has led on relevant files.

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