Election Prediction Project

Battle River-Crowfoot
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:02:54

Constituency Profile


Clarke, Dianne

Fryzuk, Natasha

Kurek, Damien

Michaud, David A.

Nelson, Geordie


Kevin Sorenson

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



51977.75 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Kevin Sorenson ** 4755280.90%
Andy Kowalski 55059.40%
Katherine Swampy 38446.50%
Gary Kelly 18683.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 4861.02%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (65.87% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (33.61% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Medicine Hat
   (0.5% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.02% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
While Kevin Sorenson is not running here anymore the CPC will still keep the riding.
11/10/19 R.O.
Actually this riding has no incumbent this year as long time mp Kevin Sorenson retired, Damien Kurek is the new cpc candidate for this riding. Being that its rural alberta , likely to stay conservative.
09/10/19 Laurence Putnam
Only re-posting to take issue with A.S' most recent posting...in the interests of historical accuracy, you cannot possible be comparing Jack Ramsay's ‘floor crossing’ to that of either Horner or the one you speculate Sorenson to be contemplating. Ramsay was ejected from caucus after a rape conviction! Associating his motives for ‘crossing the floor’ to any other MP past or present is absurd. Any suggestion that Kevin Sorenson would consider crossing the floor is equally absurd by itself.
31/08/19 A.S.
Actually, don't rule out the possibility of PPC reducing Sorenson's share to 3/4 or even 2/3 of the vote. Below that, though, it'd be likelier if Sorenson himself *for whatever reason* jumped ship to PPC. (Not that futile party-jumping's new to these parts: consider Jack Horner in 1979, and Jack Ramsay in 2000)
27/03/19 Laurence Putnam
In the last five contests, Kevin Sorenson has not once dipped below 80% of the vote. You could define a Liberal result of 25% as a tremendous success in this riding, were it ever to happen. It won't.
In fact, the PPC have a realistic shot of placing second here, albeit second by a wiiiiiiiiiide margin.
16/03/19 Sam
This is the best Conservative riding in the country. They'll win again.
26/02/19 Craig
It's the heart of rural Alberta...what more can you say. Unless the PPC can find a star candidate (they will very likely finish 2nd here), this should be one of the best ridings for the CPC. Could an Alberta or Western separatist do well? Perhaps. Trudeau is despised here.
Combined, the 'progressive' parties will be lucky to crack 10%.
18/02/19 JW
Rural Aberta riding. Enough said.

Navigate to Canada 2019 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2019 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2019 - Email Webmaster