Election Prediction Project

Calgary Centre
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-04-26 20:35:58

Constituency Profile


Boonlert, Thana

Hehr, Kent

McLean, Greg


Kent Hehr

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



49.20 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Kent Hehr 2849646.50%
Joan Crockatt ** 2774645.30%
Jillian Ratti 34125.60%
Thana Boonlert 13472.20%
Yogi Henderson 2480.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 80.02%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Calgary Centre
   (96.7% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Calgary East
   (3.3% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

27/05/19 Laurence Putnam
It would have been difficult for Hehr to have been re-elected here anyways at the best of times; given Liberal polling in Alberta I think it's doubtful he would have won even without all the scandal. Scandal on top of weak polling and he doesn't have a hope.
13/04/19 OttawaGuy94
As what others said, the Liberals allowing Hehr to run again is going to hurt them. They should have let him finish out the term but try to nominate another candidate for the general.
18/03/19 Sam
This is to me the Conservative's top chance for a gain in Alberta, although I expect them to gain some others. Whereas the three non-Con Edmonton ridings are more multicultural and progressive, this is a riding which has been Conservative for a lot longer. Kent Hehr has had a lot of bad press, and the Conservative candidate has as of yet no real detractors. Justin Trudeau is particularly unpopular in the West, but that's obviously an average. Even so, this is generally a Conservative riding and it should return to its roots.
07/03/19 MF
Hard to believe that in a city the size of Calgary there isn't one reliably 'non-Conservative' riding, but the disgraced Kent Hehr barely won last time and will most likely lose.
05/03/19 Craig
Changing my thoughts: there's no way with the SNC-Lavalin scandal ongoing that Kent Hehr holds on. Alberta (and Saskatchewan) are where the anger is greatest at the Liberals, and although it may not be as strong in central Calgary, it is still going to resonate locally. Hence the Conservatives should pick this one up.
02/03/19 seasaw
Kent Hehr was already in trouble before this scandal became public, and according to the latest poll that suggests about 70% of Albertans want Trudeau out. That would make Hehr's chances of winning here non existant
26/02/19 Craig
Probably the most 'progressive' riding in southern Alberta. With the weakened NDP, that will help Kent Hehr at least get a fighting chance. There's a large millennial and immigrant population here, and it's a highly educated riding, so that would be somewhat more receptive to the Liberals. That said, this is still Calgary, and Trudeau isn't particularly popular here. I'd say too close to call, perhaps leaning Conservative but it won't be an easy win like in most of the rest of the city.

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