Election Prediction Project

Calgary Confederation
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:03:02

Constituency Profile


Hunter, Kevan

Korol, Colin

Moen, Tim

Odd, Natalie

Sidhu, Gurcharan Singh

Stein, Jordan

Webber, Len


Len Webber

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



54.38 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Len Webber 3066945.90%
Matt Grant 2908343.50%
Kirk Heuser 47707.10%
Natalie Odd 21463.20%
Kevan Hunter 1400.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2010.40%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Calgary Centre-North
   (69% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Calgary West
   (23.03% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Calgary-Nose Hill
   (7.97% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
I think if the Liberals were more popular in Alberta they'd win here but they're not so CPC win.
08/10/19 R.O.
This is actually a downtown Calgary riding and was close in 2015 but since then liberal support has declined in alberta and the cpc easily held 2 nearby ridings in by elections in 2017. Len Webber is now the incumbent and better known in the riding.
21/09/19 Eddie E
Won’t be competitive. 2015 was an outlier as all non-con support went to the rising tide of the Liberals. Cons will get around their normal 50% here, and with the Liberal brand in serious trouble in Alberta the Libs will be lucky to hold off the Greens for 2nd place here. Even though the Cons will win by 20% or so, it will still be one of the closer results in Calgary.
16/09/19 A.S.
The NDP/Green vote was ‘very small’ in '15 because the strategic energy galvanized within the Liberal camp--however in the preceding elections, the former Calgary North Centre was actually the *best* NDP/Green seat in the city, with regular shares in the teens for either party. In which case, the Libs nominating a provincial Dipper makes logical sense--who knows, with Kent Hehr's woes, she might even outpoll *him*. (Then again, the Green candidate is one who managed 16.5% and a near-2nd in Calgary Centre in 2008. Once again, a a sleeper to be monitored given high national Green polling.)
22/07/19 Michael
I don't agree that this is very conservative area (by Alberta standards !). It includes parts of the provincial ridings of Calgary Mountainview (which elected Bob Hawksworth (NDP) in the past, and David Swann (Lib) for years, and was won by Kathleen Ganley (NDP) this year) and Calgary varsity (represented in the past by Harry Chase LIB, Stephanie Maclean NDP, and very closely fought in 2019).
Len Webber is an OK MP (actually does a fair bit in the community), though definitely not cabinet material. But he only won by a slim margin last time vs. Matt Grant. The Liberal nomination was won by Jordan Stein, who ran for the NDP in Calgary Glenmore in the provincial election, and did OK (but not great - still, over 8000 votes). Now I don't know if voters will hold the switching of parties against her, or if she can unite the NDP and Liberal votes, which might (based on 2015 results) give her an outside chance.
This is still mosty likely to go Conservative, but it will be one of the ones in Calgary that might actually be something of a contest.
08/03/19 Sam
The Liberals may target this but this is a very Conservative area and they are unlikely to repeat the same success they had last time. The NDP/Green vote is very small and the even if the Conservatives didn't gain at all a sizeable portion of it would have to go to the Liberals in order to make this more competitive.

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