Election Prediction Project

Edmonton Centre
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-02-27 21:42:41

Constituency Profile


Boissonnault, Randy

Cumming, James


Randy Boissonnault

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



45.39 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Randy Boissonnault 1990237.20%
James Cumming 1870335.00%
Gil McGowan 1308424.50%
David Parker 14032.60%
Steven Stauffer 2570.50%
Kat Yaki 1630.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2970.69%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Edmonton Centre
   (96.62% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Edmonton-Spruce Grove
   (3.38% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

20/04/19 Craig
This is the only Alberta riding the Liberals have any real chance of holding, but even then it is a longshot. The large government workforce here should keep the progressive parties in the game, but all they might do is split the vote in favour of the Conservatives.
Another possible wildcard could be the NDP. Since there is already an NDP candidate in Strathcona, could Rachel Notley decide to run here federally rather than upset Heather McPherson if she decided to make a federal run? That would instantly change the dynamics, given that the Alberta NDP won big here even in a province-wide loss. However, absent that, I would say Tossup with a slight lean towards the Conservatives.
01/04/19 Sam
I agree - this is the best shot for the Liberals in Alberta. It wouldn't surprise me if they pulled out of Calgary and focused on the two Edmonton ridings. The only suggestion to others I would make is that I would say Kelowna is second to Wascana rather than here, but I think Wascana could potentially be the only red riding between Winnipeg and Greater Vancouver anyway. The Liberals aren't out of it, but the Conservatives have the edge here.
27/03/19 Laurence Putnam
Most likely will be the closest race in the province, and I believe the only one in Alberta where the Liberals stand a chance. In fact, after Wascana it's probably the only other seat between Winnipeg and the Pacific Coast that has a chance of going Liberal. At that, it's about a 50/50 shot. If the Liberals are going to do it, they'll need to take advantage of cratering NDP support.
24/03/19 Lolitha
I agree this is leaning Conservative now. The SNC stuff has led to a lot of Alberta vs Quebec treatment talk and sapped the appeal of a strategic vote from NDPers. Boissonnault was prominent on the Justice committee - most voters won't have taken notice or remember but it is still another hurdle that might be used against him in adverts.
22/03/19 John
Randy Boissonnault is the incumbent. At the same time, I've already had James Cummings come by door knocking. Also, the Liberals have done a certain amount of foot dragging on issues like getting the TransMountain Pipeline butile, which won't make them friends in Alberta where lots of people work in the oil patch. I'll leave it as too close to call for now, but I am leaning Conservative.
19/03/19 seasaw
The Liberals barely won this the last time, and the last time there was a red wave going on. Randy's arrogant demeanor in the justice committee, may have won him support in the PMO, but not amongst his constituents. NDP supporters here won't vote strategically, because they don't want another Liberal majority
26/02/19 Lolitha
Too close to call for now. Conservatives will gain votes, but I could see NDP voters in this riding switching to voting Liberal strategically and keeping the Liberals in the lead here.

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