Election Prediction Project

Edmonton Centre
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:03:24

Constituency Profile


Boissonnault, Randy

Cumming, James

Eckstrom, Donovan

Hookham, Paul

Morton, Peggy

Murray, Grad

Pirbhai, Adil

Swampy, Katherine


Randy Boissonnault

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



45.39 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Randy Boissonnault 1990237.20%
James Cumming 1870335.00%
Gil McGowan 1308424.50%
David Parker 14032.60%
Steven Stauffer 2570.50%
Kat Yaki 1630.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2970.69%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Edmonton Centre
   (96.62% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Edmonton-Spruce Grove
   (3.38% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
I think for the federal Liberals this is their best shot in Edmonton but even then I think they'll still lose here.
15/10/19 John
I've seen a lot of Randy Boissonnault campaign signs in my wanderings in the riding. Way more Liberal signs than Conservative signs. There are a few NDP signs and no Green signs.
So while I think the Liberals have an uphill battle here, I won't rule out the Liberals keeping Edmonton Centre.
Right now, I'm going with too close to call.
10/10/19 Laurence Putnam
Ready to call this. I think you're going to see the Liberals shut out completely between Winnipeg and Vancouver - with the exception of Goodale's Wascana riding. It's looking more and more like the Tories will run the table. Enough NDP/Lib/Grn vote splitting and not enough CPC/PPC vote splitting will, I think, hand this riding to the Tories - barely.
06/10/19 Eddie E.
As l stated below this is the only truly competitive riding in Alberta, but its leaning Conservative and l don't really see a path forward for the Liberals except for a complete collapse of the NDP vote. Boissenault is a good MP, but for him to win the NDP vote has to collapse to single digits and even then its not assured. CPC Cummlng ls going to get into the low 40s at worst, so lf the NDP/Green between them get close to 10% then the Liberals are toast.
04/10/19 ghoris
I'm going to go out on a limb here and predict that Boissonault squeaks through. He has a few things going for him:
1) The area has some Liberal history as the former base of ‘Landslide Annie’ McLellan for multiple terms.
2) With redistribution, the riding is now more squarely downtown than in was during Landslide Annie's tenure. The demographics now tilt more in favour of the Liberals.
3) The NDP candidate has been pretty invisible and the NDP is struggling nationwide. The 'progressive' vote should coalesce around Boissonault.
4) Scheer and the CPC should be way, WAY ahead nationally after blackface-gate and SNC Lavalin. Instead they're now dealing with their own mini-scandals with Scheer's fudged credentials and the late-breaking revelation of his dual citizenship. That suggests to me that there is still some resilience in the Liberal 'brand', even here in Oilberta, but more importantly, people are not sold on the CPC.
The only thing that makes me hedge a bit is that James Cumming is a decent candidate for the Tories (and has name recognition from last time), but I still think Boissonault has a tiny edge. This one will be decided by GOTV. If the Liberals are smart, they'll pull whatever resources they have in ridings like Edmonton-Strathcona and Edmonton West and put it into this riding. (Sohi is also a lost cause in Mill Woods but I suppose they can't be seen to be abandoning a minister.)
02/10/19 HAS
Why is this TCTC ? The Libs are toast in Alberta. Even they know that and you will probably not see Trudeau back here in the remainder of the campaign. Conservative pick-up.
02/10/19 Nick M.
I just can’t picture liberals winning anything in Alberta. Rachel Notley had major struggles with the Federal Liberals.
They Libs are despised left or right in Alberta.
I don’t think many people have nice feelings for the federal Liberals in Alberta or Saskatchewan. It’s not like this MP is some local legend like the Liberal MP in Regina.
26/09/19 Nolan
The Liberals have not been doing very well in Alberta but they will most likely barely lose this riding and with the fall of the NDP nationally this riding will be a tossup.
My predicition
Conservative: 42
Liberal: 40
NDP: 11
Green: 6
PPC: 1
20/09/19 Eddy E
The only Alberta riding that might possibly stay non-Con as the Libs have a popular incumbent who could manage to steal enough NDP votes from the imploding Dippers to stay ahead of the surging Cons. l wouldn’t bet on it though, while Randy will run well ahead of his party, the Liberal brand is absolutely toxic here, and not sure he can bring over enough Dipper votes to make up for the loss of Liberal/Justinmania votes that barely saw him through in 2015. The riding will probably stay TCTC until well into election night, but if l were a betting man, l’d bet on the Conservatives sweeping Alberta...even this last redoubt in downtown ‘Redmonton’. lf Randy does squeak through though, he’ll probably be in line for a junior cabinet position...small business would be a good fit as he is very active in the start-up community here.
19/09/19 Shoop
The Justin Trudeau black face revelation has handed Edmonton Centre to the Conservatives. Cumming has been working the riding hard and it would have been a close race between Cumming and Boissonault in normal times.
Sometimes national events overtake local campaigns. This is one of those times. Cumming will win comfortably now.
15/09/19 MF
If the Liberals hold any riding in Alberta it is Edmonton Centre. Expect the NDP '15 vote to collapse to stop the Conservatives. Still, that may not be enough. Marking it TCTC.
15/09/19 A.S.
The key here is that it's become a more squarely central riding with each redistribution; so the non-CPC lean is arguably more ‘organic’ now than when Landslide Annie was earning her squeakers--and on top of that, the provincial counterpart to Edmonton Centre was faithfully Liberal right up to the moment the Notley sweep bulldozed everything in its Edmontonian path. So by Alberta standards, things actually don't look bad for Boissenault--’by Alberta standards’; he may have had the lowest share of 2015's Liberal victors, but he also has the most room to grow off NDP entrails, particularly with an incumbency advantage he lacked in '15.
13/09/19 Stevo
The old riding of Landslide Annie, for whom every election was a nail-biting affair lasting well into the early hours of the morning, has become the riding of Landslide Randy. Of the four Liberal seats in Alberta this is the one most likely to stay red, so I expect the Libs to focus their resources here. Too close to call.
13/09/19 Ryan
It's a tight race between Liberal and Conservative but I think the Liberals will win. In the last election, the NDP had a well-known candidate but not this time. I think this fact alone will secure a Liberal win again.
02/09/19 South Islander
I think Boissonnault should be able to hang on. LPC held the predecessor riding in 2004 when they lost Alberta 61/22. They lost it by only 6% when they lost the entire province by 65/15. The provincial election in May showed just how increasingly polarized the province is, with the NDP winning most of Edmonton despite losing overall by 22%. CPC won less than 35% here last time, while the now-imploding NDP won 24%. Polling puts the Conservatives and LPC near 2004 levels in Alberta. The LPC will likely win overall simply because, barring a recession, it is exceedingly rare for governments in Canada not to be given a second term, and suspect that this will be clear by election day. If they do, they will probably lose Alberta by less than 38%, courtesy of the collapsing NDP, with support concentrated enough to hold this and possibly also Mill Woods.
01/09/19 Steve Smith
Agree with keeping this TCTC for the time being. I lived in this riding last election, and there was a perception that the NDP had some chance of winning it. There will be no such talk this time, which should push substantial components of the Anybody But Conservative vote towards the Liberals. Weighed against this are declining Liberal fortunes generally. Agree with Craig that it's the only Alberta riding that the Liberals might keep, but I think ‘longshot’ may be understating their chances at this point--it could legitimately go either way.
31/08/19 Ty Erwin
I think the popularity of Rachel Notley in Edmonton Strathcona will certainly carry over into good results for the NDP in this riding. However, I think there is a very good chance that NDP voters will realize that the party performed 3rd in 2015 and NDP voters will carry over a good chunk of voters to the Liberals. I think it's going to be a marginal three-way race for the NDP, Conservatives, and Liberals on election day and I have no idea which one it will be.
20/04/19 Craig
This is the only Alberta riding the Liberals have any real chance of holding, but even then it is a longshot. The large government workforce here should keep the progressive parties in the game, but all they might do is split the vote in favour of the Conservatives.
Another possible wildcard could be the NDP. Since there is already an NDP candidate in Strathcona, could Rachel Notley decide to run here federally rather than upset Heather McPherson if she decided to make a federal run? That would instantly change the dynamics, given that the Alberta NDP won big here even in a province-wide loss. However, absent that, I would say Tossup with a slight lean towards the Conservatives.
01/04/19 Sam
I agree - this is the best shot for the Liberals in Alberta. It wouldn't surprise me if they pulled out of Calgary and focused on the two Edmonton ridings. The only suggestion to others I would make is that I would say Kelowna is second to Wascana rather than here, but I think Wascana could potentially be the only red riding between Winnipeg and Greater Vancouver anyway. The Liberals aren't out of it, but the Conservatives have the edge here.
27/03/19 Laurence Putnam
Most likely will be the closest race in the province, and I believe the only one in Alberta where the Liberals stand a chance. In fact, after Wascana it's probably the only other seat between Winnipeg and the Pacific Coast that has a chance of going Liberal. At that, it's about a 50/50 shot. If the Liberals are going to do it, they'll need to take advantage of cratering NDP support.
24/03/19 Lolitha
I agree this is leaning Conservative now. The SNC stuff has led to a lot of Alberta vs Quebec treatment talk and sapped the appeal of a strategic vote from NDPers. Boissonnault was prominent on the Justice committee - most voters won't have taken notice or remember but it is still another hurdle that might be used against him in adverts.
22/03/19 John
Randy Boissonnault is the incumbent. At the same time, I've already had James Cummings come by door knocking. Also, the Liberals have done a certain amount of foot dragging on issues like getting the TransMountain Pipeline butile, which won't make them friends in Alberta where lots of people work in the oil patch. I'll leave it as too close to call for now, but I am leaning Conservative.
19/03/19 seasaw
The Liberals barely won this the last time, and the last time there was a red wave going on. Randy's arrogant demeanor in the justice committee, may have won him support in the PMO, but not amongst his constituents. NDP supporters here won't vote strategically, because they don't want another Liberal majority
26/02/19 Lolitha
Too close to call for now. Conservatives will gain votes, but I could see NDP voters in this riding switching to voting Liberal strategically and keeping the Liberals in the lead here.

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