Election Prediction Project

Edmonton Manning
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:03:32

Constituency Profile


Aboultaif, Ziad

Kadri, Kamal

Phiri, Pam

Shaw, Laura-Leah

St. Germain, Charmaine

Summers, Daniel

Vachon, Andre


Ziad Aboultaif

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



157.73 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Ziad Aboultaif 2216645.20%
Sukhdev Aujla 1350927.60%
Aaron Paquette 1158223.60%
Chris Vallee 10792.20%
Mebreate Deres 5401.10%
André Vachon 1250.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 20495.99%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Edmonton-Sherwood Park
   (46.29% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Edmonton East
   (45.51% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Edmonton-St. Albert
   (8.21% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

09/10/19 R.O.
Zaid Aboultaif was first elected in the 2015 election and a lesser known cpc mp from Alberta . but cpc is polling better in Alberta this election although Edmonton is perhaps closer than rest of Alberta but still very likely to stay cpc.
07/10/19 Dave Yadallee
The Muslim vote will be split this time. Kadri should get most of the muslims that Aboultaif had in 2015, as Aboultaif's vote on M-103 will cost him the Muslim community.
15/09/19 A.S.
As the primary NDP wind in Edmonton has historically blown to the NW, this was naturally one of their higher 2015 federal pickup prospects in Alberta...and as so often happened, they finished third instead; it may be ‘Redmonton’, but it's just a bit too uncongenially suburban, and getting more so. And as a reflection of Edmonton's NE following in the footsteps of its SE, it's also diversifying; thus the ethnicity of the CPC-Lib candidates in '15 and '19.
14/04/19 Sam
You could be forgiven for thinking this is a good NDP given the provincial results and the blue collar population, but the federal NDP aren't palatable here, the Liberals are too far behind, and the Conservatives should gain on their 2015 result.
26/02/19 Lolitha
Was a wide margin for the Cons last election, cannot see this switching parties as the political scene stands now. Lots of oil workers live here as well, so Cons only real choice for them.

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