Election Prediction Project

Edmonton Riverbend
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:03:37

Constituency Profile


Chaudary, Tariq

Jeneroux, Matt

Kennedy, Valerie

Morris, Kevin

Redman, Audrey


Matt Jeneroux

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



61.50 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Matt Jeneroux 2880549.90%
Tariq Chaudary 1742830.20%
Brian Fleck 984617.10%
Valerie Kennedy 12752.20%
Steven Lack 3860.70%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

11/10/19 R.O.
Matt Jeneroux was first elected in 2015, there was no incumbent that year as longtime mp James Rajotte had retired and riding somewhat redistributed . cpc polling well in Alberta this year so there likely to hold these seats.
15/09/19 A.S.
Well, 2015's NDP predictors might not have been *totally* out to lunch, as they still managed 17% in Riverbend, which was higher than in three other Edmonton-centric ridings (granted, those ridings had star Liberals or an Independent incumbent stealing the oxygen). Also, only a portion of UCP-pickup Edmonton SW is in Riverbend; the rest is in West or Wetaskiwin. This might be the most *affluent* part of Edmonton; but were it like the GTA or Greater Vancouver, the ‘most Conservative’ element could just as well leverage Liberal a la Don Valley West. Except that this is Edmonton, not the GTA or Greater Vancouver. (Still. a hint of such potential can be can be gauged through provincial results in the 80s/90s/00s.)
15/07/19 Laurence Putnam
I remember in 2015 how many people on this site believed the NDP would somehow win this riding, probably half the posts here anyway. You can't blame NDP partisans, they were drunk on the wine of victory after their provincial win. Butl the NDP honeymoon is long over in Alberta -- and it never even happened in Edmonton Riverbend in the first place. Tories ought to be back up over 50% here.
20/04/19 Craig
This is the most affluent part of Edmonton, and apart from the mostly rural Edmonton-Wetaskiwin riding, this is the most conservative part of the city. The UCP even picked up one of the provincial seats here and came close in the others, even though the NDP support held its own elsewhere in Edmonton.
Hence, this is the safest of the urban Edmonton seats, especially considering the downturn in the oil sector. While the Liberals and/or NDP should at least be competitive in the other Edmonton urban seats (even if the Conservatives are favoured), Riverbend won't be particularly close - Jeneroux should get back well above 50%. 2015 wasn't a great year for the CPC and they still got more than the combined left.
31/03/19 Sam
I don't expect the Conservatives to lose any seats in Alberta, and here in particular I think Matt Jeneroux will turn his 2015 plurality into a majority.
26/02/19 Lolitha
Safe Conservative riding, semi-suburban Alberta, not the type of place the other parties have much of a chance.

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