Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:03:48

Constituency Profile


Calliou, Travis

Doell, Neil

Drzymala, Emily

Garver, Noah

Lake, Mike

Wong, Richard


Mike Lake

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



4842.44 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Mike Lake ** 4494965.80%
Jacqueline Biollo 1466021.50%
Fritz K. Bitz 66459.70%
Joy-Ann Hut 15952.30%
Brayden Whitlock 4950.70%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1420.34%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (39.71% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (30.21% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont
   (28.13% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (1.95% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

15/09/19 A.S.
Given how the riding's population jumped over 40% in 2011-16, the commission probably used farsighted logic in putting the ‘Edmonton’ before the ‘Wetaskiwin’--though next redraw, we might see something more like ‘Edmonton-Leduc’ at most. For those same population-growth reasons, I also wouldn't be too quick to call this as a 70-plusser; the Redmontonian bleed from Mill Woods (together with PPC eating at the edge) might even lead to a drop in share over '15. But dropping under *60%* would be a shocker, for sure.
19/05/19 Sam
For the sake of consistency the commission should've referred to this as Wetaskiwin-Edmonton, as that's more reflective of the riding's large exurban/rural element - and its resulting Conservative strength.
10/04/19 Laurence Putnam
As Miles Lunn rightly points out, this isn't even really Edmonton. Would be surprised to see the Tories under 70% here.
23/02/19 M. Lunn
This only includes a tiny portion of Edmonton and is mostly rural so with the Tories likely to do well in Edmonton while run up the margins in rural areas, easy Tory hold.

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