Election Prediction Project

Sherwood Park-Fort Saskatchewan
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:04:25

Constituency Profile


Genuis, Garnett

McElrea, Patrick

Sanderson, Laura

Theroux, Aidan

Thiering, Ron

Villetard, Darren


Garnett Genuis

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



1230.95 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Garnett Genuis 4264263.90%
Rod Frank 1361520.40%
Joanne Cave 65409.80%
Brandie Harrop 16482.50%
James Ford 15632.30%
Stephen C. Burry 6781.00%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1448628.79%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Edmonton-Sherwood Park
   (78.64% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (21.36% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

09/10/19 R.O.
Garnett Genius was first elected in the 2015 election and this is one of the more conservative friendly ridings in the Edmonton area so he should hold it.
15/09/19 A.S.
On top of everything that makes SP-FS Con-safe, Genuis has turned out to be among CPC's more personable young rookies (even being voted Parliamentarian of the Year by Macleans in 2017); so if for any reason his party loses ground in Alberta at large, I can picture him among the likelier to gain ground. (It helps that there's no more real reason for a Jim Ford to steal Con votes.)
22/04/19 Sam
Even the UCP won here, defying expectations. The federal Conservatives will have no problem holding this, they won 64% last time and they will rack up votes in the Cooking Lake and Fort Saskatchewan half of the district.
23/02/19 M. Lunn
This is suburban/rural so if they could survive the meltdown in 2015, they will easily hold this with more favourable conditions.

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