Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Sherwood Park-Fort Saskatchewan
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:04:25
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Genuis, Garnett

McElrea, Patrick

Sanderson, Laura

Theroux, Aidan

Thiering, Ron

Villetard, Darren


Incumbent:

Garnett Genuis

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

122193
111541

46293
44828

1230.95 km²
99.3/km²


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Garnett Genuis 4264263.90%
Rod Frank 1361520.40%
Joanne Cave 65409.80%
Brandie Harrop 16482.50%
James Ford 15632.30%
Stephen C. Burry 6781.00%


2011 Results (redistributed)

2488949.46%
564811.22%
32546.47%
20464.07%
Other 1448628.79%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Edmonton-Sherwood Park
   (78.64% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Vegreville-Wainwright
   (21.36% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


09/10/19 R.O.
24.146.17.200
Garnett Genius was first elected in the 2015 election and this is one of the more conservative friendly ridings in the Edmonton area so he should hold it.
15/09/19 A.S.
99.225.32.21
On top of everything that makes SP-FS Con-safe, Genuis has turned out to be among CPC's more personable young rookies (even being voted Parliamentarian of the Year by Macleans in 2017); so if for any reason his party loses ground in Alberta at large, I can picture him among the likelier to gain ground. (It helps that there's no more real reason for a Jim Ford to steal Con votes.)
22/04/19 Sam
86.152.231.91
Even the UCP won here, defying expectations. The federal Conservatives will have no problem holding this, they won 64% last time and they will rack up votes in the Cooking Lake and Fort Saskatchewan half of the district.
23/02/19 M. Lunn
174.7.100.252
This is suburban/rural so if they could survive the meltdown in 2015, they will easily hold this with more favourable conditions.



Navigate to Canada 2019 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2019 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2019 - Email Webmaster