Election Prediction Project

Burnaby North-Seymour
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:07:35

Constituency Profile


Beech, Terry

Dahlby, Lewis Clarke

Dong, Rocky

Kuttner, Amita

Leung, Heather

Robinson, Svend

Taylor, Robert


Terry Beech

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



114.61 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Terry Beech 1893836.10%
Carol Baird Ellan 1553729.60%
Mike Little 1461227.80%
Lynne Quarmby 27655.30%
Chris Tylor 2520.50%
Helen Hee Soon Chang 2070.40%
Brent Jantzen 1260.20%
Brian Sproule 430.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 4381.01%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (75.03% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   North Vancouver
   (24.97% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
Svend Robinson's presence will play a factor. Also the CPC booted their candidate here. I think the Liberals will win a close race.
19/10/19 SG
I don't think we've brought up the Jagmeet effect. The NDP leader's popularity has skyrocked in the polls of late. Will he have a coat-tail effect that will boost Robinson in the neighbouring riding, and perhaps other NDP candidates in the Lower Mainland?
18/10/19 ndsz
I think the outcome of this riding hinges on whether the turnout is stronger in north van or burnaby
16/10/19 Laurence Putnam
Sorry, Physastr Master, but that's not going to happen. The last time Svend Robinson won a contest was 19 years ago, in what was then just the Southern half if this riding. Even at that, he won it only barely with 37%. The North Vancouver half of the riding is kryptonite to Svend. He will do so badly in that half of the riding that he'd need to be winning polls with 50-60% in Burnaby, and based on current trends that is simply not going to happen. Where I will agree is that based on the unique circumstances of this riding in this election, he will appear to do much better than he otherwise would/should...perhaps enough to keep his hopes of a political comeback alive. But he will not win.
16/10/19 SG
Should this be discussed further? 338 Canada is now showing this riding as a tossup but with NDP at 68 % odd of winning (as of Oct. 15).
15/10/19 Physastr Master
Apologies for the second post, but there are important updates here. First of all, saying that Heather Leung will win is clearly insane. You may not like that Scheer didn't stand by his candidate, but he made the call for a reason: blatant homophobia is absolute poison in Canadian elections, and Scheer knew that keeping that ideology attached to the party would hurt him. In Burnaby, that's especially true - we're talking about one of the less religious suburbs of North America's least religious city, religiously inspiried homophobia has no place there, even among Conservatives. Meanwhile, I put some more research into the candidates here, and the PPC candidate seems like a wonderful, very interesting guy - the sort of candidate I wouldn't expect out of Maxime Bernier's party. I think he'll do a good job of sweeping up Conservative votes, but it won't be a clean enough swing for him to be competitive.
Meanwhile, the latest polls have BC starting to develop into a 3-way race, with the conservatives slightly ahead. In light of this movement, 338 now has this riding going NDP, even with no conservative present. This is due in part to Trudeau's absolutely cratering second choice rankings since my last post. The NDP is now favored over the Liberals by more than a 3-to-1 margin *among conservatives* according to the latest angus reid poll (23 NDP vs 7 LPC). Does this mean that a quarter of Conservatives will suddenly vote for Svend Robinson? Of course not. As other posters here rightly pointed out, Svend is a tough pill to swallow for Conservative voters. However, it won't be that *no* conservatives vote for Svend either. Not everyone pays as much attention to politics as we do, a lot of conservative voters won't even know who Svend Robinson is, and will just vote for the NDP because they like Singh. I'd say that that's at least half of voters, if not more. Especially in cities, people pay much less attention to the candidate because there is more movement of people. Why care about your local representative rather than your party when you've only lived somewhere for a few months? I'm in the demographic that lives this sort of lifestyle, and I can verify that I have never heard anyone in that sort of situation say they're voting specifically for the candidate, not the party. That effect isn't as significant here as it is in Quadra and Van Centre, but the riding does contain SFU, so that dynamic is present. Based on that, my guess is that 10-15% of Conservative votes will go NDP here, rather than the 23% that polling is indicating. This is still much more than the 7% going liberal, which is the important part. The anti-Svend votes will go PPC or to Leung, not Beech. The current 338 projection still has a significant influence from earlier polls that show the NDP at the low-20s to high-teens in BC, but the movement is clearly upwards right now, and this late in a campaign momentum rarely halts. Even if we assume the DART and Nanos numbers with no further movement, in which the NDP is competitive for first in the province, this would be a comfortable NDP win with or without the conservatives (an 11-point win according to the tooclosetocall.ca simulator with those numbers inputted). Without the Conservatives, the Liberals' atrocious second choice numbers will be the nail in the coffin. It's becoming increasingly clear that Conservative voters hate Trudeau much more than really anything else, so I think Svend likely wins here almost by default. Singh could still stall, so I wouldn't call it yet for the NDP, but it certainly shouldn't be labelled as a Liberal lock.
12/10/19 Sam
I have little more to add to the analyses offered - had this down as a three way race, and it was on paper, but all indicators show it's heading in one direction only. Svend Robinson isn't doing much for the NDP here, and the Conservatives aren't doing much either - it leaves only the popular Beech who adds a positive spin to the Liberal brand here.
10/10/19 prognosticator15
This is yet another retreat by Scheer in the face of progressivist despotism in order to emphasize how 'Liberal light' the party is. Not standing by the candidate wins no new votes elsewhere, in my opinion, much like in Salim Mansur's case in London North Centre (in Ontario) where the candidate was disqualified for immigration views. Here, however, Heather Leung is not changing parties and now runs as an independent, and in spite of inevitable progressivist finger-pointing, extra publicity, an image of her as a victim of repressive agenda imposing unGodly values, and relative freedom to express herself on other and still debatable public policies once the party cabal is removed actually makes her a stronger candidate. Brainwashing by dominant media will probably limit her appeal to progressives, but she is now certain to attract PPC and many independent voters, helped by the fact that PPC candidate is a maverick who was a Liberal supporter until recently, not quite a profile to expand a centre-right constituency considering divisions Trudeau has created and his policies of progressivist dictatorship and identity politics (and that unusual boxing video of PPC campaign launch here in summer is nothing special). She will also be a draw for faith-oriented voters of different religions who might have voted for other parties, in addition to keeping practically all Conservative vote. Hence, Leung now has a better chance than former Liberal Judy Wilson-R in Vancouver-Granville since unlike (SNC-Lavallin fame) Wilson-R, she has no competition from her former party - it is legally too late to become a candidate now. Beech is a weak MP in a riding where economic issues favor conservatives, while Robinson's image of a jewellery thief is hard to erase. So, while it is a three way race, Leung has now acquired enough momentum to secure a win here for a good conservative, while Scheer might believe he had not shot himself in the foot - time will tell.
09/10/19 Eddie E.
Con candidate dropping out won't help Svend here. Blue cons will go PPC or vote for the now independent, and red tories will go to the Liberals or Greens. You might get some red tories going NDP in other ridings, but not in ones where Svend is the NDP candidate.
08/10/19 Marco Ricci
This riding was actually a Liberal vs. Conservative tossup according to the model projection sites like 338, with the NDP running third. With the Conservative candidate out (but still on the ballot), it may now become a Liberal vs. NDP race with the Liberals having a small edge, but it's hard to say for sure until more polling data emerges.
07/10/19 Nick M.
In light of the Conservative party ditching its candidate, this election went from a Conservative/ NDP toss up, to a Liberal Win.
06/10/19 seasaw
As promised, I'm revisiting this closer to election day, and my prediction is the same. The expulsion of the Tory candidate, ensures a Liberal victory here. Svend Robinson is trying again, to make a political comeback, but he's too old and clearly doesn't belong in this era.
05/10/19 Marco Ricci
The Conservatives have removed their candidate, Heather Leung, for homophobic comments, but it's too late to remove her name from the ballot. Could help the Liberal candidate Terry Beech, but too early to tell.
05/10/19 South Islander
The rejection of Leung by the CPC probably seals the deal for Beech. According to Ipsos and Ekos, second choice of CPC voters is overwhelmingly nobody, but LPC and NDP are even. I would imagine that rural CPC voters are slightly more likely to choose NDP as their second choice while (sub)urban CPC voters are more likely to go LPC. Given a choice between Svend Robinson and Terry Beech, North Shore CPC voters will probably go overwhelmingly for Terry. I also have a hard time believing more North Burnaby CPC voters would opt for the famously far-left former incumbent over their current incumbent.
05/10/19 Physastr Master
Oooo, this is interesting now! The CPC candidate is gone, but where will the votes go? The PPC is the obvious first choice, and they'll probably see a third-place finish because of this, but what about the LPC and NDP? The LPC seems obvious due to their adjacency to the CPC on the political spectrum, but second-choice polling may indicate otherwise. A recent angus reid poll (which I think is the most recent with second-choice information) says this about second choices for conservative voters:
PPC: 30
NDP: 24
GPC: 17
LPC: 15
The moral of the story is that it appears Conservatives are willing to vote strategically to get Trudeau out of office. That said, the complicating factor (and reason I'm not making a prediction here) is Svend, the one man possibly polarizing enough to nullify the anti-Trudeau CPC votes. Regardless, it does not seem likely that the LPC will benefit from a Conservative's absence. Still TCTC.
05/10/19 Patrick Cooper
The removal of Heather Leung as the Conservative candidate after the deadline for bringing in a replacement will secure this seat for the Liberals.
05/10/19 SG
The Conservatives ejected their candidate today for past homophobic quotes. It's too late for the party to appoint a new candidate so I'm not sure where the would-be Conservative votes will go. This probably helps Beech more than any other candidate.
05/10/19 DurhamDave
The Conservatives have removed their candidate for this riding due to her anti-LGBT comments.
This riding was always going to be a Liberal-NDP race, but it'll be interesting to see where those Conservative votes go now.
03/10/19 Nick M.
Three way race, if this was Ontario the past NDP vote would go to Liberals and it would be a shoo-in Liberal. But this isn’t Ontario.
The is going NDP or Conservative. Svend is a workaholic and will get a lot of support here. He has been door knocking for a long time. Unless the Liberal incumbent is popular like Hedy Fry, I will say the Liberals are long shots in this riding.
03/10/19 Seth
This will be one to watch. If this were still a Burnaby-only riding I'd predict an NDP pickup. But with the large chunk of the North Shore now in this riding it's a Liberal-NDP toss-up.
17/09/19 A.S.
Svend chose here for a reason: Kinder Morgan, plus it was the only Burnaby seat available (and hopefully, the dust from his disastrous mid-noughts has cleared). And while the north-of-Burrard Inlet part doesn't help NDP matters, it needn't be fatal, either--after all, it didn't prevent them from second place at nearly 30% in 2015; and in fact, they sort of ‘held their own’ in Seymour, suggesting that were it not for Justinmania's left-oxygen theft, the NDP actually could have won it. Besides, except for a few golf-and-affluence bits Seymour's really more North Van than West Van in nature, i.e. not exactly historically NDP-congenial, but not averse to lending them at least *some* support were they proven to be viable around these parts. And even if it were on behalf of the ‘Svend left’--after all, Corbyn in 2017 was no barrier to the rise of Labour in relatively genteel Leave constituencies. Of course, according to some polls the NDP looks to be in more of a Lib Dem '17 than Labour '17 position; but let's not get into that matter now...
13/09/19 Laurence Putnam
Going to agree with the general trend here that this is leaning Liberal, though subject to change as the campaign goes on.
The NDP are definitely out - the Robinson brand has lost much of its currency in Burnaby and in the Seymour part of the riding was never a popular brand to begin with. He's a formidable campaigner that will get votes, but the cards are stacked against him here.
The Conservatives are off to a poor start. I live in the riding and while the Liberal and Green sign crews had signs up immediately, the NDP did the following day. Still haven't seen any Conservative signs. If that's an early indication of their organizational level in the riding (and it may or may not be) it doesn't signal that they're off to a very good start.
The incumbent is running hard. I think the Liberal handling of the pipeline is this candidate's Achilles heel, but then again, only if the Tories (the only other party with a realistic chance) can capitalize on it appropriately - that remains to be seen.
For now, I think the Liberals are ahead by a hair.
06/09/19 South Islander
Burnaby Douglas was NDP-leaning, particularly with Svend Robinson as an incumbent - at least before the incident that led to his retirement. Burnaby-North Seymour is not. If you look at the 2011 transposed results and 2015, they are very similar to the province-wide result. (The CPC would have won here by 10% in 2011!) This is much more like the Burnaby-Seymour district that ousted Tommy Douglas in 1968 than to Burnaby-Douglas, and likely the closest thing to a ‘bellwether’ for the BC popular vote total.
Polling has the LPC and CPC tied in BC, with the NDP substantially down from 2015. Pipeline expansion opponents are very vocal, but in the minority. Terry Beech has been a very visible MP and an advocate on the pipeline issue. Unless the CPC open up a big lead in BC or the NDP recover, I think Terry Beech will hang on. Whether post-retirement Svend gives the NDP a boost has yet to be seen, but I suspect any boost will not be enough to overcome Beech's incumbency advantage or current NDP weakness overall. And that's just the Burnaby portion. In North Vancouver, his name recognition will probably help him even less than it did in Vancouver Centre in 2006.
01/09/19 Marco Ricci
It's hard to know what will happen here. Svend Robinson was one of the best-known NDP MPs of his day -- a name known not only in B.C., but across Canada. He made an impact from being the first openly-gay MP. On the other hand, he hasn't been in Parliament for 15 years, and the demographics and boundaries have changed. As for Terry Beech, he is not a big name MP and didn't win by a large margin, but the Liberal numbers in BC are ahead of the NDP (eg. today's Leger poll shows Libs 1st in BC and NDP 3rd). If Libs stay ahead in BC, Beech may win. Maybe one of the pollsters will do a riding poll here before the election to give us some clues.
24/08/20 SG
Svend Robinson was one of only two federal NDP MPs elected in B.C. in 1993 and 2000, and one of only three in 1997, so he has a history of defying the national polls even when the NDP has poor showings overall. Could that winning streak resume now? The boundaries of this riding are different from the ones he held as MP, and there is the turnover of voters to consider. My gut tells me that Beech keeps the riding on Oct 21, but campaigns matter.
10/05/19 seasaw
Terry Beech won by a small margin the last time, but he's done a pretty good job and should be able to win by a bigger margin this time. Send Robinson wants to go back to parliament but he's well past his best before date. Conservatives are up slightly but not high enough to take this riding. That might all change, so I will revisit this closer to the election.
06/05/19 NDP13
Burnaby North Seymour was already a surprise narrow victory for the Liberals in 2015 in the traditionally NDP riding. With the Kinder-Morgan pipeline terminal in this riding, along with the huge amount of opposition it brings in this area, Terry Beech will not win, especially considering that long-term popular NDP MP Svend Robinson is running again.
13/04/19 Cookie
The Liberals had won this riding by a pretty small margin, so it's probably a Conservative/NDP race, especially with the SNC Lavalin scandal in play. This also isn't one of those ‘oddball’ ridings where the Liberals will maintain momentum because of a star candidate.
However, anything can happen here. The riding isn't just Burnaby, so this could be a slim Liberal victory.
03/04/19 Craig
Svend Robinson, what were you thinking running here? Sure, the Burnaby part is very progressive, but he often had fairly close races. Across Burrard Inlet, though, it is very affluent and business oriented (a Liberal-Conservative swing area) - not a recipe for NDP success at all, and certainly not from the socialist wing.
The NDP will likely gain votes in central Burnaby where they are strongest and pipelines are toxic (and keep the Greens at bay), but the North Shore and more affluent areas will probably strategically vote anti-NDP against him a lot more than in 2015. I'd guess whichever party forms government. I'd give a slight lean to the Conservatives right now, but if it is clear the Liberals are going back to power, they will hold on. The NDP won't be able to win either way.
18/03/19 Laurence Putnam
I will not be the brave soul who makes the first call. This will be the most interesting race in BC, one of the most interesting in the country.
NDP has a definite bedrock of support in the Burnaby half wth an obviously high-profile candidate and extremely effective campaigner, although one who has been absent for 15 years and may now be unknown to a whole segment of voters here. The biggest problem for Robinson is the ‘Seymour’ part of the riding; the lion's' share of his support will be on the South side of the Inlet. Votes will be hard to come by on the North Shore; especially for a New Democrat as immoderate as Robinson.
Liberal incumbent has been visible in the riding and has the aforementioned advantage of said incumbency. The Liberal weakness here is Kinder Morgan. They haven't spoken strongly in favour enough to win over supporters, and not strongly enough against to win over detractors. If Liberals lose, dithering over KM will be to blame.
Best thing the Conservatives have going for them here is the split between the Liberals and NDP (and to some extent...the Greens, too, given how close this race could be.) Of course, with a PPC candidate, they may have to face shedding a few points to their right flank as well. Seymour portion should be fertile ground; few renters, lots of million dollar+ homes.
I'd say all three main parties sit on bedrocks of about 25% support each - perhaps a little less for the NDP - but any one of them could claw their way to the 33-36% which may be all that's necessary to win...maybe even less than 30% if the Greens and PPC mount credible campaigns.
It's going to be fun.
13/03/19 Stevo
Frankly I think it is more likely that Svend Robinson will play spoiler and hand this seat to the Conservatives rather than actually win it for the NDP. All the pieces are in place for such a scenario:
- Conservatives rising slightly in BC
- Liberals falling (but not drastically)
- NDP stagnant with a well-known but controversial candidate that will galvanize votes in support AND against
But it's still far too early to make a definitive call here.
01/03/19 Sam
This is going to be a close one; all three major parties are in contention on paper. Whether this becomes a two way race as the election goes on remains to be seen, but the Liberals are in danger. They didn't win a large share of the vote last time and may take a hit due to regional issues such as pipelines as well as ethics concerns. In contrast, this area is actually fertile for the other main parties, although who can actually compete is not clear at this point. It's too early to call.

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