Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:08:02

Constituency Profile


Bogunovic, Rob

Green, Arthur

Lamache, Daniel

McQuillan, Heather

O'Donnell, Dorothy-Jean

Strahl, Mark

Velonis, Kelly


Mark Strahl

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



3285.73 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Mark Strahl ** 2144542.30%
Louis De Jaeger 1711433.80%
Seonaigh MacPherson 921818.20%
Thomas Cheney 23864.70%
Alexander Johnson 4160.80%
Dorothy-Jean O'Donnell 820.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2760.72%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

11/10/19 R.O.
Mark Strahl has been mp of this riding since 2011 , most years the cpc won the riding by large margins . with 2015 being closer than past years but a riding more than likely to stay conservative.
17/09/19 A.S.
Actually, the area did go Lib in 1968's Trudeaumania. And as for the present, the changing-demos argument still can't be entirely discounted--the provincial default mode might be BC Liberal, but that's more of a big-tent entity than the federal Conservatives. It might not be the ethnic-diversity reasoning that's behind Abbotsford; maybe a more generic ‘Greatermost Vancouver’ moderation thing, and the concomitant natural attrition of all that's Bible-Belty--and let's remember that the CPC share and margin here was (ominously?) lower than in Abbotsford. But for now, all it means is that 2015 was closer to a new norm, and the CPC shares might henceforth be less ‘Albertan’ than they had been over the preceding two decades. And besides, the Strahl name is gold around these parts.
18/07/19 Laurence Putnam
Yes...their was, briefly a provincial NDP MLA for a time - the time was in 2012 when anger at the BC Liberals' reversal on the HST was at its' peak - but what Mark omits in order to let his point stand is that the vote was split between a BC Liberal and a BC Conservative (who is now a BC Liberal MLA) that combined would have blown the NDP away.
There is nothing resembling a vote split in this riding which rests on the edge of the Valley and rural B.C. and there will be nobody resembling an MP from any other party than the Conservatives for a loooooong time. The area has been open to trying out various centre-right vehicles over the decades; PC, Social Credit, Reform, Alliance, etc. - but the last time this area elected a Liberal was 1949.
22/06/19 Mark in Mexico
I don't like to repeat myself, but the essence is the same here as it is next door in Abbotsford, even if the margins are slightly narrower...
‘Mark Strahl is safe, but I'll be watching to see how the shifting demographics of the valley will affect his vote share, and what it tells us about how many elections we will have to wait for this riding to become competitive. He *should* be back into the 50s, but will he be?
As it's not a competitive seat, it will also be interesting to see what non-Conservative voters do with their votes. Without strategic voting in play, small-g green voters may vote big-G Green in greater numbers that we might otherwise expect.’
I realize it's a stretch, but don't forget that Chilliwack voters elected the NDP in a provincial by-election not that long ago (and then promptly booted them out in the general). So they *can* vote other ways too!
31/03/19 Sam
There's little chance of anything other than a hold for Mark Strahl here. He should increase his vote share.
23/02/19 M. Lunn
While it was rather competitive in this normally safe Conservative riding, if the Tories could survive the 2015 meltdown, they should have no trouble holding this in 2019.

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