Dwellings occupied by usual residents:
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
|Lewis Clarke Dahlby
2011 Results (redistributed)
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam
(100% of voters in current riding)
Reference - Pundits’ Guide
|James Moore's old riding, went Liberal last time. I think this yr. it returns to the cpc.
|This was a surprise liberal pick up in 2015 although was no incumbent that year as long time cpc mp James Moore decided not to run again. Ron Mckinnon has now been mp since 2015 and Nicholas Insley is the new cpc candidate this year. Could return to the cpc this year as the riding had been cpc in the past. I believe both Trudeau and Scheer have campaigned in this area so far.
|It'll be a tight race, but I'd bet on the Liberals' Ron McKinnon in this riding. The Conservative candidate is too far aligned with the religious right-wing to carry support from the broader base of more moderate conservatives here. Meanwhile, Liberal McKinnon has been a productive and involved MP, and is very popular in the community. The NDP and Green parties will siphon off some votes from the Liberals, but are not really in the running here themselves.
|Let's remember with the Cons is that not only was this turf ably represented for years by James Moore, they had a star 2015 replacement candidate in BCLib MLA Douglas Horne...and then, wouldn't you know it, the Libs came up the middle. Re flipping from the Conservatives to Liberals several times: the only other time it went Liberal in recent history was by way of late 90s byelection (and this being BC, it was mostly an NDP stronghold pre-1993). PoCo's the provincial NDP fiefdom of Mike Farnworth; but that's countered by the right-leaning Burke Mountain (and in terms of '15, the southern Mary Hill tip of PoCo). So, a bit more complicated than a standard BC swing riding, though the three-way circumstance may make it appear so--but if the opposition candidates are as weak as reported, the incumbent Libs just might have more present-day headway in the three-way.
|This will be close, right down to the wire contest between the Liberals and Conservatives. I give a slight edge to incumbent MP Ron McKinnon because the Conservative candidate is not well known and appears to be more inclined to the religious right (in contrast to popular former Conservative MP James Moore) and the NDP has nominated an no-name candidate who is best known for prominently supporting disgraced Port Moody Mayor Rob Vagramov who is now charged with sexual harassment.
|Coquiltlam-Port Coquitlam is a bit of a problematic riding to predict correctly. Historically, there has been a strong presence from all three of the major parties, with the federal riding flipping from the conservatives to liberals several times with the NDP not far behind, and a relative NDP advantage in the provincial PoCo seat. Although Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives are especially targeting this riding and neighbouring areas like Pitt Meadows, it may not be enough. If the NDP fields a well-known popular candidate like perhaps mayor Brad West (very unlikely), they would probably end up winning, but the NDP may end up vote splitting with the liberals. The NDP does have a shot at this riding, with PoCo being union territory as well with the large railyards in the area, but ultimately this riding will end up being incredibly close in the 2019 election. Due to the 2015 3% victory margin for the liberals, I'd say very slight tilt for the Conservatives, but it could go either way.
|First off, I would respectfully disagree with parts of the previous statement that disregards the NDP's presence in the riding. Statistically, the NDP has been very consistent in this riding in its current rendition and its previous boundaries under Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam, perhaps because of Port Coquitlam's working-class demographic. The NDP support in this riding has never dipped under 20% in the past 20 years and consistently hovers around the mid-20 to low 30%, which is enough to influence the outcome of a predominant Liberal-Conservative swing riding.
That said, I do agree with the premise that the riding with either be Liberal or Conservative come October. It really depends on how much leakage the Liberals will transfer over to the Tories. This will be TCTC until we have a clearer idea of who will win the election, as the winning party nationally will likely scoop up this seat.
|If the incumbent can capitalize heavily on collapsing NDP support, he may be able to achieve re-election.
If not, and perhaps regardless, this is a riding with a pretty strong conservative base. I would suggest a very, very slight conservative edge at this moment but Liberals are absolutely in the game. The NDP don't know what the game is in this riding.
|One of the standard BC swing ridings, this will probably be a bellwether. Although Ron McKinnon is running again if the winds blow the Conservatives' way his candidacy will not be enough.