Dwellings occupied by usual residents:
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
|Cathy McLeod **
2011 Results (redistributed)
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
(100% of voters in current riding)
Reference - Pundits’ Guide
|Just wanted to follow up with the update that although Conservatives will win here, I think the order will revert back to the usual, despite what I posted a few weeks ago.
Cons, NDP, Lib, then Green. Terry Lake is well-regarded in the community but is hampered by a leader who is liked by no one.
|Liberals are down in the province, didn't win it on the Justin Mania wave, therefore out of luck and no going Liberal.
This is a NDP / CPC race. Since no one here thinks the NDP can win it, I am placing this as a CPC win. As I assume low volunteer base for the NDP at the start of campaign will hamper their chances.
|The BC Interior is tempermental. It votes Liberal in waves before returning to its natural CPC/NDP dichotomy. Remember 2011: 5% LPC? This won't be *that* bad with Terry Lake as the candidate, but he certainly won't climb uphill against the provincial trend to win this, the Liberal ceiling is just too low. Sure, the NDP have messed up their chances with their nomination debacle, but Terry Lake is a well known BC Liberal, and for most BC NDP supporters, voting for a BC Liberal is like voting conservative. I suspect disgruntled New Democrats will go green here, while most will just vote NDP anyway. This might even make for a 3-way race for second, but make no mistake, this will go conservative. That mainstreet poll just reinforces the inevitable.
|With the Liberal support nationally holding stagnant or decreasing, I would give the edge to the incumbent Cathy McLeod. As the riding also encompasses huge rural areas such as 100 Mile House, they should help hand it back to her with a slight increase in the vote since 2015.
|A mainstreet poll has conservative incumbent Kathy Mcleod leading with the liberals in second , ndp third and greens forth.
Conservatives leading in Winnipeg and Kamloops-area ridings: Mainstreet polls
By Marco Vigliotti. Published on Sep 30, 2019 6:00am
|Lets not make too much of four decades of NDP being mostly ahead of the Libs--thats blurred by those four decades being mostly a period when the Liberal name was mud in BC; or else, during the AudreyAlexa years, when Nelson Riis counteracted the NDP name momentarily being even *more* mud. (And 2015 was too second-third dead-heatish for NDP-ahead-of-Lib to be of much consequence.) Terry Lake would have been a terrific dead-cert catch for the Liberals in 2015; 2019s a less certain matter even accounting for NDP candidate woes. Meanwhile, Kamloops provincially epitomizes how the BCNDP has receded in the Interior while becoming more of a Greater Vancouver & Island force--then again, Terry Lakes on the BCLib end of the spectrum (of course)
|The NDP has dropped their candidate, Dock Currie, for previous arguments on social media with pro-pipeline activists:
|The NDP just lost their second candidate! It's almost as if they are deliberately trying to throw this to LPC. There is of course time to find a third candidate and a possibility that some BCNDP supporters will refuse to vote for a former BC Liberal cabinet minister. However, given that (1) the NDP and LPC won a combined 42,600 votes last time (of which half were LPC votes for a relatively unknown candidate), (2) the LPC have a well-known and well-liked candidate who might even be able to win over 2015 CPC voters, and (3) the NDP is so obviously not viable this time, I have to think Terry Lake is now the favourite.
|This riding is 75% City of Kamloops where, in the last 20 years Lake, has been the councillor, mayor and MLA. He can win this city. This was great recruitment by the Liberals.
|From 2006 to 2015, the order the candidates finish has always been same. Cons, NDP, Lib, then Green. It's likely to be different this time. The NDP candidate, Gina Myhill-Jones, has stepped down for undisclosed personal reasons, and the party has yet to name a new candidate. The NDP is likely to drop in the rankings, while the Lib and Green parties are both running strong candidates. It's going to be interesting but the likelihood is that McLeod hangs on for a forth term.
|Mark in Mexico
|The Terry Lake Liberal candidacy adds an interesting dimension to this race, but mostly it gives me the impression that it seals the deal for the Conservatives.
Only one non-Conservative candidate, the rightish NDPer Nelson Riis, has won this riding in the past 40 years. The New Democrats have outperformed the Liberals in all but one election during those 40 years, even in 2015, when the Liberals hit their high-water mark (and the NDP were flailing).
Lake is a rightish Liberal who says he's running because of climate change. In theory, this should allow him to build a coalition bridging everyone from small-g green types to more centrist conservatives. But the federal Liberal brand seems to be suffering when it comes to the climate file, and it was weak to begin with in Kamloops. Even with the NDP struggling, I can't help but wonder if running as a rightish climate change NDP candidate would have made it easier for him to build a potential non-Conservative coalition of voters.
If anything, the Lake candidacy muddies the waters for voters looking to coalesce behind someone who isn't Cathy McLeod. Unless the NDP and Green candidates absolutely tank, I *do* see the Liberals finally overtaking the NDP here, but I *don't* see them besting Cathy McLeod. Assuming she is closer to 40% this time (instead of 35% last time), and that the PPC candidate picks up a point or two, he would have to take twice as many votes as the NDP and the Greens combined. I just don't see that happening.
|This riding was close last time, and could be even closer with popular former MLA and cabinet minister Terry Lake as the likely LPC candidate.
|I'm still expecting the Liberals and NDP to have a go here. However, with the chance of a Conservative government on the rise, this isn't the battleground it was at the beginning of the year, it's Vancouver Island, Delta, Surrey, Coquitlam and Stikine.
|Back when Nelson Riis was around, this was reliably NDP, but that was a different time. Riis represented the old Broadbent-era NDP that branded itself as the defender of blue collar jobs. Today's NDP with its anti-pipeline politics, etc. doesn't relate to people in a riding like this the way it used to. Just as the provincial NDP has slowly eroded away its base in the interior, so too has the federal party. It may have been a close call last time, but that was an election where voters were fatigued by a decade of Conservative government. On the rebound this time, with a Liberal Party that hasn't delivered to communities like this one and an NDP in deep trouble, this will return safely to the Conservatives with a recognizable incumbent.
|This could be close again, but the Conservatives held this by going up the middle last time and are in a good position to do that again. It's on the other parties' target lists, but as the election draws nearer it could easily fall off them as they have only an outside chance.