Dwellings occupied by usual residents:
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
|Ron Cannan **
|Norah Mary Bowman
2011 Results (redistributed)
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
(100% of voters in current riding)
Reference - Pundits’ Guide
|This was the riding in BC the liberals won in 2015 because the local green association decided not to run a candidate but there is a green candidate this year. in fact riding had only 3 candidates that year which is virtually unheard of in Canadian elections. This year there is 7 candidates , which includes 2 independents and a Peoples Party candidate. Before 2015 this riding had always been conservative or held by a right of centre party, not sure when it last would have been held by another party but likely a very long time ago. Not sure I can envision a realistic scenario where the riding stays liberal unless Stephen Fuhr is much more popular locally than I realise. More likely scenario is that new cpc candidate Tracy Gray returns the riding to its conservative roots.
|Good thing someone brought up the even-in-defeat best-Con-share-in-the-non-Peace-River-interior matter; nonetheless, even with the Green dropout accounted for, the Lib victory *was* impressive in its own right--and it didnt require a Green dropout for the equally impressive *near*-victory in neighbouring COSN. Somehow, Liberalism struck a chord in Greater Kelowna, despite its retirees-and-hard-righters reputation--maybe a bit like the Notley NDP in places like Red Deer? And maybe, like that, a one-election phenomenon--maybe. Though perhaps radical middle seeds of said Liberalism could be deduced through such things as the Judy Tyabji interlude in the 90s; that is, for all its apparent Socred-bedrockism (not only through the Bennetts provincially, but through Werner Schmidt federally), Kelowna wasnt all that it seems. Also, re the urban-vs-rurban argument: actually, despite the Lake Country appended to its name, Kelowna is already pretty much an urban seat in its near-entirety, and even the most rural-interior polls went mostly Liberal, so swapping those for West Kelowna would have made negligible difference...
|Mark in Mexico
|p.s. For lack of any better place to do so, can we just take a moment to acknowledge the rural-urban nature of the Interior ridings? I'm not sure I've seen anyone else do so.
In Saskatchewan, the 2013 redistribution eliminated these so-called rurban ridings that the geography of Saskatchewan made so plain to see, to the obvious advantage (at least then) of the NDP. In the same redistribution, the opposite effect seems to have taken hold in Interior BC.
I stand by my prediction of a Conservative pickup in Kelowna-Lake Country, but I have to wonder what the outcome would be if that sizable chunk of urban Kelowna weren't allocated to Central Okanagan-Similkameen-Nicola. What if, instead, one urban Kelowna riding had been created, with outlying Lake Country areas shifted to the neighbouring rural riding? Would Stephen Fuhr have a better chance at holding the riding this year?
We see similar divisions elsewhere in the Interior. Most notably, could Prince George have elected a non-Conservative candidate in 2015 if it had not been split in two?
And although it doesn't fit quite as neatly into the urban-rural divide, the slicing-and-dicing of the Kootenays and neighbouring Columbia, Boundary, and the southern Okanagan -- whose two seats would fairly be split between the CPC and NDP in a proportional representation situation -- created a lopsided 2-0 NDP result in 2015, and may very well create a lopsided 2-0 CPC result in 2019, despite the vote totals being very close in this region.
The contrast with Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, a large but still primarily urban riding that contains the entirety of Kamloops and has voted both blue and orange, is somewhat striking.
To be clear, I am not advocating purely urban seats in the next redistribution. A Peace River-Cariboo riding, for example, would be geographically unwieldy for the MP. But on the whole, it's an interesting what if discussion to have.
The Conservatives are on course to all but sweep the Interior in October. This is primarily because:
1/ they will get the most votes!
2/ the non-Conservative vote is being split too many ways
3/ the map happens to be friendly to them.
Interesting fodder for discussion as we prepare to redraw the map again after the next census...
|Mark in Mexico
|In 2015, I suggested Kelowna-Lake Country could produce a Liberal cabinet minister -- and it did!
Nonetheless, despite losing, Ron Cannan's 40% was the second-best result for the Conservatives in the Interior. The CPC appears to be trending upward in BC, so unless there have been some serious demographic changes in the riding in the past four years, that number should be expected to tick up by a few points.
Of course, the big factor was the absence of a Green candidate. That can't go unmentioned. Although the Greens likely wouldn't have taken enough votes to prevent a Liberal victory in 2015, when the Liberals beat the Conservatives by five points in BC, they certainly would in a scenario where that margin is flipped, as it appears to be in 2019.
The Liberals have to keep pretty much all of their 46% from 2015. Now that the Greens are fielding a viable candidate in a year when they are surging, that seems all but impossible, as there is nowhere for the Greens to go but up from, ahem, zero. Even if the NDP shed half of their 14% from last time, there is still not enough left to go around.
For the Liberals to have any chance here (which they still do) they have to keep the Conservatives as close to 40% as possible, pick up more votes from the NDP than they lose to the Greens, and hope for some help from the PPC candidate -- all whilst not bleeding too many of their own votes to the CPC. That's a tall order.
A lot can change in four months, but if the election were today, it would be in the Likely CPC category.
|Stephen Fuhr is in trouble here. He benefited in 2015 from
a nominated Green Party candidate who immediately dropped
out, and endorsed Fuhr. Elizabeth May decided not to contest the riding. There was also a significant drop in the CPC vote throughout vote.
Stephen Fuhr has been a competent MP for the riding, but
circumstances are not in his favour.
On April 6, the CPC nominated Tracy Gray in a fierce
battle against Renee Wasylyk. Both are high profile
businesswomen with impressive credentials. There were a
reported 1,769 people who voted at the nomination meeting,
although the results were not officially released.
With the Green Party expected to run a candidate in 2019,
and Liberal Party support catering from 2015, I expect this seat to go back to the CPC.
|With a Liberal majority no longer likely it all, having diminished significantly over the last few months, these ridings which are low-hanging fruit for the Conservatives look to be changing hands. The Greens appear to be putting up a candidate this time which should seal it for the Conservatives.
|I seem to see a lot of postings in other ridings in Western Canada suggesting that this is some sort of Liberal fortress. I strongly beg to differ. Fuhr's single-digit point margin of victory in an election year the Liberals crushed it all across the country, making him the first Liberal to be elected in Kelowna since 1968, does not auger well for his long term chances. He's maintained a reasonably high profile and everyone knows the demographics of this area are changing...but there's still an awful lot of folks up there who like their quads and boats which they will spend this summer filling up at approximately $2 per litre thanks partly to Trudeau's carbon tax. Fuhr's a good candidate; but he should cross the floor to the Conservatives if he wants to keep his job.
In 2015, the Conservatives, with a meagre 40% of the vote (sarcasm), got their worst result here in 50 years last time. That was a black swan event. You have to be a dyed-in-the-wool grit to truly believe that will not reverse itself this go around.
|It was a surprise this went Liberal last time, perhaps helped by Stephen Fuhr's candidacy, but this only goes Liberal in majorities and so is definitely at risk. The Conservatives will invest a lot here.