Election Prediction Project

Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:09:20

Constituency Profile


Csaszar, Julius Nick

Kidder, John

Nenn, Michael

Sidhu, Jati

Vis, Brad

Wismer, Elaine


Jati Sidhu

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



21350.11 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Jati Sidhu 1662537.20%
Brad Vis 1558734.90%
Dennis Adamson 917420.50%
Arthur Alexander Green 22935.10%
Wyatt Scott 9142.00%
Elaine Wismer 580.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1530.45%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission
   (41.42% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (33.14% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon
   (25.44% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

19/10/19 R.O.
There was a surge in advance voting in this riding but not sure what it means , according to David Akin this riding has the highest advance poll turnout as % of eligible voters at 33 %. 24,953 voters have already voted at the advance polls . which is a very high advance poll turnout .
17/10/19 R.O.
A riding that the conservatives should be able to win back, was a surprise liberal pick up in 2015 that few people would of predicted. Brad Vis was the cpc candidate in 2015 and back this year for a rematch against rookie liberal mp Jati Sidhu. also the riding where Elizabeth May’s husband is the green candidate , not sure that will make much difference although be interesting to see how the greens do here .
19/09/19 A.S.
This is a strange one--and beyond the rematch making it obviously low-hanging fruit for the Cons (i.e. making up for what they *should have* won last time), it also offers a chance to contemplate the weird nature of BC’s Justinmania pickups in 2015. On the one hand, it was an obvious matter of the Grits leapfrogging the NDP in the promiscuous-progressive/anti-Con sweepstakes; but also, it was a matter of the Justin Libs hitting a certain ‘hey, why not’ radical-middle maverick chord vs the entrenched/complacent HarperCons--ironically, when it came to BC, the Justin Lib option somewhat became to 2015 what Reform was to 1993. (One thing that might have helped: thanks to the maternal element, Justin might have been the most ‘BC native son’ Liberal leader ever--John Turner not excepted.) And in this particular riding, things were even quirkier in ‘15 than just-plain urban-rural. Like, when it came to the interior, while the Cache Creek/Ashcroft area remained Con, the Lilooet/Fraser Canyon polls were predominantly stick-to-the-guns *NDP* (and there’s something of a history to that). Mission, meanwhile, was the heart of the promiscuous-progressive NDP-to-Lib morph--but south of that, the rural Matsqui buffer was Fraser Valley Bible Belt heartland where the Cons were majority-territory and the NDP often single-digit. And finally, one last, dramatic deal-sealing lurch into Liberalism of a different, post-promiscuous-progressive sort in the form of urban Abbotsford’s Sikh-leaning NW neighbourhoods--yes, it would appear that Abbotsford’s diversification *did* leave its federal electoral mark, after all, albeit not in the riding actually called ‘Abbotsford’ (and Sidhu’s background surely helped). And now on top of all that weirdness (including the uncertainty of what the Jagmeet factor means for those Sikh Abbotsford polls), it’s the chosen riding for Mr. Elizabeth May...
22/06/19 Mark in Mexico
Lifelong GV Resident...If the Greens were to pull off a victory in this riding, they would have to come out of nowhere to do so. Funny thing is, that's exactly what the Liberals did four years ago, so it's not out of the question.
I would have favoured the Conservatives without John Kidder running, and now that his hat is in the ring, that outcome seems even more likely. This is a riding where we really need the next four months to tell us what's going to happen, depending largely on Kidder's campaign, and the momentum of the federal Green campaign. Does he get the 10-15% we might currently expect from a mainland Green candidate, based on polling? Does he move on up into the twenties and threaten the Liberals for second place? Or is there even enough momentum out there for him to get over 30%, at which point this riding could become a real free-for-all, given that it's traditionally blue-orange with a red incumbent?
Speaking of orange, it's odd to be discussing an election in Mission without mentioning the NDP, but here we are.
As Lifelong notes, this is one of those quirky half-urban, half-rural ridings, with the caveat that the urban and rural parts have little to do with each other. So whilst I maintain that it's the CPC's to lose in the current polling climate, there are many wild cards in play, so we'll have to wait and see.
08/05/19 Lifelong GV Resident
In the Nanaimo by-election, the Greens succeeded by marshalling disaffected from all the other parties. In raw numbers, the Green vote was the only one to go up, the other main parties all lost thousands of votes. The Greens appear to have stemmed the Conservatives tide there, as the Conservative percentage stayed about the same and their raw vote total was down, despite them being up in the polls province-wide. It seems the Greens have made a similar calculation here, that the Liberal incumbent is vulnerable and that the Greens are better positioned to pick up Liberal votes than the NDP are, as Elizabeth May's husband is now running in this riding. I think this riding is now too-close-to-call. 2019 may see an anti-incumbent fervour like we last saw in 1993.
09/04/19 Laurence Putnam
A win with 37% for the Liberals in Western Canada in 2015 does not look hopeful for a repeat in 2019 given current polling.
03/03/19 Sam
This was the last riding to be called on election night last time; it was close and should be contested this time in a rematch. As it's a riding of two halves, the city of Mission and the interior region, it's not prime territory for any party, and with a close fight expected, it's too early to call.
02/03/19 seasaw
This riding narrowly elected a Liberal last time, this time, however, with the CPC polling higher, and the Liberal numbers slightly lower, along with Mr Sidhu's inappropriate remarks, which he's apologized for, should put this riding in the win column for the CPC

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