Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:09:24

Constituency Profile


Chamberlin, Bob

Chumsa, James

Clarke, Jennifer

Corfield, Michelle

Hirst, John

Manly, Paul

Marlatt, Brian

Stoneman, Geoff

White, Echo


Paul Manly

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



1728.28 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Sheila Malcolmson 2365133.20%
Tim Tessier 1675323.50%
Mark Allen MacDonald 1663723.40%
Paul Manly 1407419.80%
Jack East 1260.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2750.49%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (55.41% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (44.59% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

19/10/19 R.O.
Considering the by election occurred in May of this year I’m left thinking the riding will stay green and Paul Manly gets back in. although there has been a fair number of campaign visits by May and Singh to this riding so perhaps its still close.
19/09/19 A.S.
I’ll *allow* for a general-election Green setback--though I’m not sure whether re-running the NDP candidate that came third in the byelection is the way to go about it. Perhaps, in the end, it might not be a matter of Paul Manly being defeated, but of his ultimately (re)joining the New Democrats...
28/06/19 Sam
My previous prediction was for Esquimalt but somehow ended up here - either way this is now a very likely Green hold. The surge on Vancouver Island has stayed for them, so I expect Paul Manly to be re-elected.
19/05/19 seasaw
The by-election win for the Green has set a new tone in the riding. The Greens are probably going to be the party with the largest percentage of seat increase in the country. Wouldn't be surprised if they actually get official party status.
19/05/19 Sam
I predicted Nanaimo would go Green and it did by more than I expected, so I see no reason why this doesn't go Green also. Most people have already said what I believe, but even more noteworthy is that not one person has predicted an NDP win here. And why should they? They're in a real bad spot.
10/05/19 Mizisuga
Well, Greens managed to pull off a pretty groundbreaking byelection victory. They are definitely favored to include this in their list of gains in October. However, let's not be too quick to assume their victory is assured, as NDP may yet surge at the expense of the Greens.
09/05/19 Dr Bear
The Greens have made their beachhead in this riding in the byelection. I don't see any compelling reason (at the moment) why voters will switch back to the NDP. The NDP lost almost as much of the vote as did the Liberals. The Conservatives only did marginally better than they did in 2015. With VI voters particularly concerned about climate change, I think we will see 3-4 Green seats on the Island in October.
08/05/19 Islander
Manly managed to win the by-election by a considerable margin as a Green candidate in a race that was expected to be a toss-up. Now that the vote-splitting rhetoric is out of the way here, I don't think there's any reason to believe he will lose in October.
07/05/19 Craig
Establishing a beachhead farther up Vancouver Island, the Greens should easily hold this in the general election. The Conservatives are too far behind on the Island to win much of anything even on a vote split, while the Liberals and NDP are definitely on a downward trend. Paul Manly should gain a few more colleagues though...
07/05/19 Laurence Putnam
Wow. Well I was wrong. A third place finish for the NDP in a riding they won last time is very, very bad news. Winning by-elections with strong union-backed organizational effort is an NDP specialty. To lose a by-election in an already historically dyed-in-the-wool NDP riding - coming third no less - is an extremely distressing sign for New Democrats headed into a national campaign they have no budget to spend on. I suspect the NDP is headed for big, big trouble in October.
07/05/19 Lifelong GV Resident
Well, it's now a question of whether this riding is a Green hold rather than a green pick-up in October, and that changes the dynamic.
People now know the Greens can win here, so they can now vote Green with confidence in this riding, no need for Green supporters to worry about voting strategically here. And yes, some will just say it's only a by-election (NDP pundits were already saying that last night halfway through the counting, despite not playing it down before the polls closed). But it was a by-election with very good turnout for a (probably close to 45% once all the votes are counted, as some were still outstanding this morning). As much as I was rooting for the Greens, I felt that they'd have to having a really good night in October to pick this one up. But what we saw last night was the Greens taking more than half of the Liberal vote, taking a third of the NDP vote, and even taking some of the Conservative vote (the Conservatives are up in the polls across BC, but they were flat in Nanaimo, suggesting the Greens were depressing the anticipated Conservative increase here). This is now almost certainly to be a Green hold in October.
07/05/19 Sam
Having had my suspicions confirmed by the by-election, I maintain that this will be a Green seat in October. The question is, how many others will there be?
06/05/19 NDP13
The NDP has long been very popular in Nanaimo and the surrounding areas, and after the green vote share collapse in BC such as in the Nanaimo provincial by-election, this riding will stay orange. The greens were a trend in the 2017 election, but now everyone is realising that the greens are just a environmental subgroup of the liberals, with centrist policy, and it isn't a party to be taken seriously policy-wise. It may gain Victoria and possibly Nanaimo in 2019, but if they do, they will be decimated in the next federal election. By-election NDP +5%, federal +8%.
05/05/19 AR
If the Greens finish first or second in the by-election, they will win this in the general election but I suspect that they will have no problems winning earlier. They are out-fundraising the other parties in Nanaimo and one of the only reasons they lost in 2015 was because of strategic voting and I'm still honestly surprised that they were not victorious back then.
30/04/19 J.F. Breton
It will be interesting to look at the result of the next by-election here. NDP or Greens, it will be a good indicator, for this riding and for the entire island.
28/04/19 Islander
I stand by my previous position here. While I haven't been to Nanaimo recently, I've been told that Manly is winning the sign game, which the Conservatives are apparently doing poorly at. The NDP chose a good candidate, but their current polling numbers and the fact that they nominated their candidate just after the by-election was called while Manly has been campaigning for far longer puts them behind the Greens. Unlike last time, it appears the Liberal candidate is putting on a viable campaign; however, it won't be enough to make any gains as Trudeau has since significantly lost popularity here over issues like Kinder Morgan - this will be more likely to bleed out to the Greens more than anyone else. The PPC candidate is apparently putting on a surprisingly visible campaign as well. Obviously it won't be enough to win, but it could bring the Conservative vote down somewhat. In addition to this, as the winner of the by-election will only be in parliament for a few months before the actual election happens, people may be less likely to care about vote splits, which benefits the Greens the most.
If Manly wins this by-election, I'd expect Nanaimo-Ladysmith to stay Green in October. If he doesn't, then this will still be a crapshoot.
09/04/19 Laurence Putnam
A Green victory here is by NO MEANS farfetched. A Conservative victory is a possibility. But the NDP are clearly still the party to beat here. Incumbency, good party machinery, traditional roots, etc.
Interestingly, Calculated Politics seems to indicate this is a 3 way race between the three, with each polling at 26% a piece, Liberals trailing in fourth with 18%.
It's all about ground game here.
13/03/19 Stevo
The Conservatives took 40% in 2011, so their ceiling is certainly higher than reported below. If the Greens win here it means they've won 5 seats in BC and I don't see that happening. Best for them to focus on Victoria where they have a very good shot. As for here, any of the three major parties have a chance to take it.
27/02/19 Craig
Tossup. The Greens will likely be strong (this is probably target #3 or #4), but all they might do is split the progressive vote. I think the Conservatives have a ceiling of 30-32% here, but that might be enough to win on a perfect four-way split. That said, if the Liberal vote collapses, I would suspect most of it would go to the Greens and give them another seat.
26/02/19 climate_voter
@Sam I would have to agree with what you're saying. There have been multiple instances recently where Greens have won in ridings where incumbents from other parties had stepped down. For example, in the November 2017 by-election in Charlottetown-Parkdale
24/02/19 Sam
It's far too early to declare it a definite Green gain but their chances are very high. There is no longer the popular NDP candidate Sheila Malcolmson running, and so this riding is now an open contest. A common trend for the Greens is to do very well when races are wide open and they have a lot of attention, such as in Guelph in the 2018 ON Provincial Election, and so if I had to choose one candidate, the Greens' Paul Manly, who ran last time, would be the favourite.
20/02/19 Islander
Paul Manly is running again, and although he didn't have the breakthrough that some had expected in 2015, the Green vote still rose significantly here. Back in 2015, this riding was very anti-Harper, with many concerned about splitting the vote since half of the riding used to be part of Nanaimo-Alberni. Now that the NDP are polling as low as they are, and with the Greens polling much better than previously, this argument wouldn't really work in favour of the NDP as much anymore, and I would expect a good chunk of their previous support to haemorrhage over to the Greens. Left-leaning Liberal voters disappointed with Trudeau's environmental policies will probably move over to the Greens as well. The Conservative vote will probably grow somewhat with Harper gone, but Trudeau is still relatively popular enough that the unusually-high fraction of the vote the Liberal candidate had in 2015 (which I highly doubt will grow here) will likely not significantly turn blue. Additionally, I don't think there is any reason to believe that the provincial by-election in Nanaimo is an indicator that the Greens are losing support here considering how crucial it was for the NDP government.
Like 2015, I expect this to be a very close race, but I'm nonetheless leaning towards the Greens on this one this time.

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