Election Prediction Project

Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:09:50

Constituency Profile


Cherrier, Bryton

Dalton, Marc

Jaschke, Ariane

Mogk, John

Ranta, Steve

Ruimy, Dan


Dan Ruimy

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



2045.92 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Dan Ruimy 1767333.90%
Mike Murray 1637331.40%
Bob D'Eith 1545029.60%
Peter Tam 22024.20%
Steve Ranta 4520.90%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

14/10/19 MBD
Tight 3-way race last time. Now the Liberals are falling and the NDP are rising. This is too close to call, but I think it's between the Conservatives and NDP now.
22/09/19 R.O.
Prior to 2015 this was one of the most conservative friendly ridings in the Vancouver suburbs , in 08 and 2011 they got over 50% of the vote , I’d be surprised if it stays liberal this year. The riding is so conservative its hard to believe it even elected a liberal mp.
18/09/19 A.S.
BC's tightest Liberal 3-way--some of these fluke-through-the-middle chopped-up ‘didn't expect this’ races have a strange way of evoking the Ontario NDP in 1990. Dalton might not be *completely* the star Cons are hoping for--after all, he lost the nomination in 2015. At the atypical moment, PMMR looks like a bellwether for whatever awaits urban/suburban BC
19/07/19 Laurence Putnam
Dalton shouldn't have much difficult plucking this from the Liberals. Overlay current polling trends on the previous result and a 33% win in BC in 2015 is not something to be confident about going into this race. The NDP could compete here, but won't be a factor this time.
09/06/19 Sam
Seems to me this is now headed for the Conservative column - obviously not certain but it's highly likely now. Even if TCTC is the call for now, it would make sense to change it to the Conservatives in the future. Marc Dalton is probably overrated - he's not a huge star, he lost overall but he'll still be a boost to the Conservatives. Dan Ruimy may be known for being Chair of the Industry Committee, but that won't mean much. With a split left - more evenly split than the neighbouring ridings, the Conservatives are in a great position to come up the middle, given the poor performance of the Liberals and the NDP in BC (the NDP being hurt by Bob D'Eith running provincially), it's hard to see support consolidating behind one, especially enough to offset the Conservatives should their vote share increase as is likely. When the left are largely united as we saw provincially we can get some narrow BC NDP wins - but federally, the Conservatives have far and away the best chance, enough for me to put this in their column. Sure, it's early, but even with a shift to the Liberals I think the Conservatives have the factors in their favour, so I'm prepared to change my projection.
15/04/19 Richmondite
Former MLA Marc Dalton is on the ballot for the Conservatives, which boosts the Tories' efforts here. Furthermore, there seems to be a strong enough split of centre-left votes as the incumbent Liberals and the NDP, which represent this riding provincially, are both in position to finish 2nd or even 1st depending on how the election campaign unfolds. However, given the name recognition of Dalton and a strong likelihood of vote splitting between the NDP and Liberals, the Conservatives are likely to prevail with a mid to high 30% of popular vote.
03/03/19 Sam
A three way race on paper, but it's one of the Conservatives' best hopes for a gain in BC, with former BC Legislator Marc Dalton a good recruit for the Conservatives. It's too early to call at this point.

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