Election Prediction Project

Port Moody-Coquitlam
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:09:57

Constituency Profile


Badiei, Sara

Chabot, Jayson

Shin, Nelly

Verrier, Roland

Watts, Bryce

Zarrillo, Bonita


Fin Donnelly

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



95.23 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Fin Donnelly ** 1970636.00%
Jessie Adcock 1688830.90%
Tim Laidler 1611229.50%
Marcus Madsen 18783.40%
Roland Verrier 830.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1200.28%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   New Westminster-Coquitlam
   (82.06% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam
   (17.94% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
I think the NDP surge will let them hold on here.
18/10/19 Physastr Master
My first post here was done when the NDP seemed to be still very vulnerable to national obliteration. If the NDP are anywhere near first in the province, they'll hold this, and that's what most polling aggregators are indicating here. The local dynamics as described by previous posters sound even more promising. NDP Hold. It would appear that the front lines of the VanBurquitlam orange blob are now on the north bank of the Fraser (i.e. PM-C and PM-MR, with a longshot chance in M-M-FC) and Surrey.
18/10/19 Prediction
This riding looked rocky for a while but can now safely go back to the NDP column.
1. Singh is surging and on track to beat the NDP’s 2015 percentage of the vote in BC.
2. Conservative support isn’t growing with parachuted in far right wing candidate Nelly Shin.
3. Liberals are bleeding support.
4. The local NDP candidate is a popular city councillor.
Add it up and you get an NDP win in a riding they held against Trudeaumania in 2015. Shouldn’t be a surprise.
15/10/19 End of Inlet Observer
Local Conservatives are divided over the parachuted social Conservative candidate. Shin will get a boost from local Korean community but will come in third in the end. Liberal candidate will receive a boost from those disaffected local Conservatives and has made a good push, but she won't be able to overcome the late NDP surge and the well-established NDP ground game in the riding. NDP's Zarrillo will win by 4-6 points over the second place Liberal candidate Badiei.
11/10/19 R.O.
There also was a mainstreet poll for this riding and it shows a tight 3 way race in a riding that had been held by the ndp.
iPolitics? Verified account @ipoliticsca · 2h2 hours ago, Meanwhile, a second Mainstreet poll reveals a three-way statistical tie in the British Columbia riding of Port-Moody—Coquitlam, where a tight race is forming to replace thrice-elected NDP incumbent Fin Donnelly — who has elected not to run again this fall #cdnpoli #elxn43
25/09/19 Physastr Master
I've been bullish about the NDP's chances elsewhere, but there really is no reason to believe this will be a slam dunk as an open seat, it has always been a bit of a nailbiter, even with NDP incumbents. Most of it is pretty BCL-BCNDP competitive provincially, so the NDP does need to put in work here to win federally. They would have lost it in 2011 with the current boundaries! The NDP organization here is strong and they have a strong candidate which will help hold onto Fin's supporters, but the national campaign is the main variable here. It's starting to show signs of life, over the last week Jagmeet Singh has been gaining in favorability while all other parties (especially the liberals, obviously) have been in varying degrees of freefall. At this stage this really should be TCTC (NDP vs CPC, Trudeau is racking up so many scandals I can't see the momentum existing for them to take this). It is still likely to go NDP, but it *definitely* is not one of the 12 safest NDP ridings in the country.
23/09/19 David B.
Sorry, a small correction. The Liberal candidate lives in Coquitlam but outside the riding - in the Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam riding.
18/09/19 David B.
With all due respect to those posters who don’t seem to understand what exactly is happening in this riding.
The Conservatives have parachuted a candidate in from Ontario who failed to win her nomination in her own riding and, so, had to be moved all the way across the country to find a riding for her. I can’t see Ms. Shin mounting a serious challenge to either the Liberal or NDP candidate. She will finish in 3rd.
The Liberal candidate is accomplished and a strong candidate. She is an immigrant who has worked in the energy sector and is raising her family in the riding. If the NDP didn’t have such a strong candidate I would most likely have this one at least TCTC.
Ms. Zarillo has been referred to as just a city councillor. She is more. She is someone who is well known in the community for fighting for the little guy, sometimes completely out on her own. She is known for her integrity and her compassion.
While the NDP does not have the incumbency of Mr. Donnelly in the current election, he announced his retirement with so much time that the door knocking and other preparations began in the Spring. I would be surprised if Ms. Zarillo had not knocked on every single door from this Spring to election day, many of these rounds of doorknocking done with Mr. Donnelly.
You underestimate the importance of a good ground game at your peril.
18/09/19 A.S.
Were it not for Fin Donnelly, this *probably* would have gone with the Liberal flow in ‘15--and on those grounds, it’s tempting to say that it’s Fin-ito for the post-Fin New Democrats. OTOH the fact that Fin held on despite the uncongenial swap of New Westminster for Anmore/Belcarra/Heritage Mountain *might* bode well for Svend next door potentially overcoming the Seymour factor. And it’s presently by no means certain that there’ll be significant strategic leakage btw/ LPC and CPC either way--something that helps the opposition-split prognosis--plus it might appear that good campaign press for Jagmeet + the popularity of the provincial government no longer makes Audrey-esque third-place stagnation in the face of open-seatdom a certainty. (But I do find it odd that EPP kept this marked as an NDP hold through the worst of the Jagmeet doldrums.)
05/09/19 South Islander
With no incumbent, I don't see how the NDP are predicted to win a riding that they held by only 5% in 2015. Based strictly on current polling average, it looks like a CPC vs LPC horse race with the CPC maybe slightly favoured. The NDP are likely to finish third here but could pull off a win if they recover. I suspect the campaign will result in enough movement in voter support for a favourite to emerge, but for now, this is TCTC.
07/05/19 NDP13
I would like to respectfully disagree with the call for the NDP already. With relatively high-profile MP Fin Donelly retiring, the NDP will not win with relative certainty unless they nominate someone of Donnelly's caliber--A city counciller is not going to cut it. This is going to be a very close race between the NDP and Conservatives, and although the Liberals will shed some votes to the NDP, they will also shed some to the conservatives, who will also gain from the NDP's stagnation in British Columbia. Too Early to Call overall.
15/04/19 Richmondite
Still quite early to make a definitive call, but the best odds still remains with the NDP at this point. Having nominated an incumbent city councillor as the candidate in a riding with a relatively strong support for the NDP provincially and federally under strong representation by Selina Robinson and Fin Donnelly, the NDP does appear to have an edge. The deciding factor will be whether the Liberal support will leak more towards the NDP or the Tories. As previous historical voting pattern suggests, more of the Liberal leakage tends to benefit the Conservatives in this riding. Still, a strong NDP presence plus a strong Liberal-Tory swing that favours the Tories should make this race interesting to watch. For now, this should riding be leaning NDP if not TCTC.
19/03/19 Branden M
My home riding! Definitely too close to call now that Fin Donnelly is retiring, but i would give the edge to the NDP given the both the history of the riding, the strong performance of the provincial NDP, and the likely nomination of a fairly strong candidate Bonita Zarrillo.
08/03/19 Sam
With Fin Donnelly retiring, this seat starts off as a three-way race. I'd personally favour the Conservatives to jump from third to first; they notionally won it in 2011, but this will be definitely close. The NDP may attract support on key issues however, making this too early to call.

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