Election Prediction Project

Saanich-Gulf Islands
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:10:18

Constituency Profile


Broda, Ron

Busch, David

May, Elizabeth

Singh, Sabina

Windsor, Ryan


Elizabeth May

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



499.47 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Elizabeth May ** 3707054.40%
Robert Boyd 1326019.50%
Tim Kane 1138016.70%
Alicia Cormier 61819.10%
Meghan Jess Porter 2490.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Saanich-Gulf Islands
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
May will keep her seat tomorrow. She may be the only green to win though.
18/10/19 R.O.
Don’t think there is much doubt May will hold the Saanich Gulf Islands riding , bigger question is if the green party makes gains in the other Vancouver Island ridings or not and that is much tougher to predict.
11/10/19 Eddie E.
Saanich Gulf lslands is the only safe Green seat in the country. Esquimalt, Victoria and Nanaimo should all be tagged too close to call and are if anything probably trending NDP. Singh helped himself in the debates and could yet rebound to save most of his seats in English Canada. May did not have great debates and Green appeal will, as per usual, trend downwards as the election get closer. May needs to do the right thing by her party and step down to allow younger, more charismatic leadership take the next step.
07/09/19 A.S.
At this point, I think voters simply regard Elizabeth May routinely in pan-ideological electoral-parking-lot terms, not unlike Alberta Cons or NF Libs. Almost like Hedy Fry in '15; hey, she's a dotty old lady, but she's *our* dotty old lady, kind of like. Why upset the (Green) apple cart...
24/05/19 Sam
The interesting question is how high the Greens go, as much of the swing here has already happened. Needless to say, Green hold.
02/05/19 seasaw
This one's a no Brainer, it's no longer whether Elizabeth May will win the seat by how much. Whether or not she will be joined by other MP'S. Easy Green hold.
27/02/19 Craig
Even without Elizabeth May, this would probably be a solid win for the Greens, as they have basically consolidated the entire progressive vote here and climate change is the #1 issue in this region. All she does here is turn a solid win into a blowout win - the Greens will probably top 60% (and maybe exceed 70%) with the Conservatives a distant second. Will she have caucus company though?
23/02/19 M. Lunn
As long as Elizabeth May is leader this will stay Green. Even without her, support for the Greens has grown quite a bit in the southern part of Vancouver Island so I suspect they would win this anyway, she just ensures a competitive race becomes a blowout.
19/02/19 Stevo
The question here isn't whether or not Elizabeth May will win, but whether she will be joined this time by other Green MPs from BC. Certainly a possibility, with the apparent Trudeau 'betrayal' on pipelines adding wind to the Greens' sails on the Left Coast. Just don't tell them that Vancouver is the biggest exporter of coal in North America.
18/02/19 climate_voter
In both 2011 and 2015, Elizabeth May had won this seat safely. There is no indication that she won't be resigning, as she herself made it clear that she will be leading the Greens into the 2019 Federal Election. Apart from strong popularity at the federal level, 2 provincial ridings (which overlap with Saanich-Gulf Islands) have Green MLAs elected (Andrew Weaver, Adam Olsen).

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