Dwellings occupied by usual residents:
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
2011 Results (redistributed)
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
British Columbia Southern Interior
(58.4% of voters in current riding)
Reference - Pundits’ Guide
(39% of voters in current riding)
Reference - Pundits’ Guide
(2.6% of voters in current riding)
Reference - Pundits’ Guide
|CPC win. I think their candidate being a city councillor will help.|
|This is a tough one to predict , this riding was created in 2015 from parts of several different ridings , some of which were cpc before and other an ndp riding. Dick Cummings has been the ndp mp since 2015 and running for re-election. Helena Konanz is the new cpc candidate this year and 2015 liberal candidate Connie Denesiuk is running again. Parts of this riding will almost certainly vote cpc well other areas will go ndp. Dont think any party leders have visited the riding but overall been few visits to any interior BC ridings this year.|
|Konanz is currently being favoured here because the Conservative Party is polling well in interior BC and how large Penticton (where she is a city councilor) looms in this riding. The incumbent Cannings is on the defense. He should (you hope) retain much of the pro-Environment vote since he is one of the most well-known biologists in the province (try looking for a book on BC birds not written by him). However, for him to get re-elected, he will need to keep those green voters, get a high turn-out in the West Kootenay, and keep Konanz from dominating Penticton.|
|The NDP counterpart to N Ok-Shuswap, right down to the way the opposition split--but problematic; as the notional 2011 results prove, the breakup of the former BC Southern Interior was a high-risk move for the Dippers, and theres something a bit out of whack about Penticton, previously the urban heart of Stockwell Day country, now being part of an NDP bastion (even if Cannings is from there). True, the Castlegar-Trail Kootenay West part (where Katrine Conroy got *60%* provincially) can carry a fair bit of compensatory weight on its own; but relative to where the federal NDP is at large in the Interior, I cant really give Cannings the cleanest bill of health, even if a bit in spite of himself...|
|There's an important sleeper issue that is particular to this riding; which is the proposed South Okanagan National Park. Of course, the Progressive vote Mark mentions really has no choice but to support it. The problem is, most of the locals hate the idea - a simple drive through the riding will indicate that. I rather like the idea of a South Okanagan national park...but I don't live there. I'm not the one who will lose the ability to go quadding, riding of hunting in the woods here that the locals treasure. At this point I think the park is going ahead no matter what, but I would look for that frustration to be vented through support for the Conservative candidate. I think and NDP win this time would have been tough to pull off anyway, but the park issue galvanizes Conservative support.|
||Mark in Mexico|
|Four months out, it is still really TCTC, but I see this riding leaning NDP, even in the face of poor numbers for the NDP across the province. In part, I feel much of the NDP's descent in the polls is attributable to Vancouver Island, where they are bleeding badly to the Greens. I'm not convinced they are losing *as much* on the mainland...yet.|
The Conservative vote share here in 2015 was 30% -- the same as it was across the province. There is no blue wave yet, but a blue bump with the Conservatives now somewhere between 31 and 35% provincially. Even with the Greens surging (although again, I think this is overstated on the mainland for the same reason I think the NDP numbers are understated), this still requires the remaining parties to split the vote relatively evenly to allow a Conservative victory.
I believe small-g green voters (which include many Liberal voters from 2015) will sooner coalesce behind a progressive incumbent than risk a Conservative win. With no red wave this time around to create the idea that the Liberals could win the riding, the Liberals, I would argue, stand to lose more voters than the Greens stand to gain, something like:
2015 Liberal 28% + Green 4% = 32%
2019 Liberal 17% + Green 9% = 26%
Compared to the 7% the Liberals got in 2011, even 17% is arguably generous in a riding where they have no history.
The PPC candidate will siphon off few, but precious, votes from the Conservatives.
And I can't help but think that Richard Cannings coming from right-leaning Penticton will help the NDP cause for a point or two -- although I could be mistaken on this one.
So, as of today, I see an overall swing to the right in the riding:
2015 Left-of-Centre 70% / Right-of-Centre 30%
2019 Left-of-Centre 63% / Right-of-Centre 37%
I still see this creating the conditions for an NDP win:
Of course, a three-point-margin four months out is a very slight lean. This is a very, very possible CPC pickup, but not as likely as Kelowna-Lake Country.
|I think even the most impartial observers are expecting October 21 to be a rough night for the NDP - I certainly am, and a riding like this; barely won by the NDP last time with less than 40% of the vote, is exactly the type of riding that's poised to fall. Cannings might be a diligent MP and perhaps he's a nice guy - but he is no Nelson Riis-type personality with the personal following to withstand the coming storm, and I can hardly imagine the NDP HQ with its limited resources going into this campaign singling out a riding like this as one they've got to throw the kitchen sink at in order to try and save it. The well financed Conservatives however will be chomping at the bit to take back a riding that they probably never should have lost. I suspect they will get it.|
|Not a safe riding for the NDP by any means, but they did very well here provincially. Some of that vote may go Liberal, but ultimately the main threat is the Conservatives who notionally won this new seat in 2011, due to running high margins in Penticton. The NDP incumbent Richard Cannings has been quiet but dedicated in Parliament, so it ultimately depends on how much of a bounce one party gets; if the Conservatives win government it's up for grabs.|