Election Prediction Project

Surrey Centre
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:10:44

Constituency Profile


Bains, Tina

Breti, Jeffrey

Dilawari, Jaswinder Singh

Gidora, George

Pielak, Kevin

Sarai, Randeep Singh

Saran, Sarjit Singh

Werring, John


Randeep Sarai

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



40.34 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Randeep Sarai 1947145.10%
Jasbir Sandhu ** 1299230.10%
Sucha Thind 855619.80%
Jeremiah Deneault 14933.50%
Kevin Pielak 5531.30%
Iqbal Kahlon 1330.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 9482.91%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Surrey North
   (99.94% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/10/19 Physastr Master
The Liberal-ness of this is really more due to the large south asian population in the southern sections of the riding than anything else, they voted pretty resoundingly for the Liberals in 2015. The rest of it is a pretty classic working-class region that the NDP can win by large margins. If anyone can break up the Liberal's monopoly on south asian voters, it's Jagmeet Singh. Note that even without predictions of a massive orange surge in Sikh communities, this is being marked as competitive by all major polling aggregators. TCTC.
17/10/19 R.O.
I believe there has been several campaign stops to this riding by the party leaders so a sign the race is close. Liberal mp Randeep Sarni was first elected in 2015 although the riding had not been liberal before that and had a colourful history . Of flipping between the ndp and conservatives , in the 90’s it had been a reform/alliance riding when Chuck Cadman mp until he became an independent mp. It had been in ndp riding in 2006 and 2011 elections. Its history points to it very much being a swing riding although the ridings demographics have changed over the years.
12/09/19 Daniel Blanchette
I wonder how the NDP would select a Mr. Sarjit Saran as their candidate for Surrey Centre since many unionized employees (maybe hundreds) at Seastar Solutions now called Dometic (address 3831 No. 6 Rd, Richmond, BC V6V 1P6) say he was anti-union and made things worse for the unionized employees especially with regards to their health benefit plan. If I were the NDP I would quickly go and find out find out if this (my) statement is true, and if it is, ask Mr. Saran to officially cancel his candidacy. There is a limit hypocrisy can be tolerated.
08/09/19 A.S.
I think it's more proper to say that the NDP struggles federally in BC when they're in power *and unpopular* provincially...and this happens to be that rarest of moments when they're *not* unpopular provincially. But conversely, let's not jump to conclusions about Surrey turning away from the Liberals, especially since the federal Libs and provincial BCLibs are different kettles of fish (in fact, the latter's decline might reflect federal *Con* levels more than Lib levels); plus, not only was 2011 exceptional, 2015 was the best year for the federal Libs in modern-day suburbanized Surrey *ever*. (In fact, Sukh Dhaliwal was the first Liberal to *ever* be elected in a Surrey-dominant riding.) True, Surrey Centre might be new to the Liberals, but as a reflection of increasingly ethnoburban demos + the Justin coalition (whereas the Cadman dominance was founded more upon SC's bygone white-trashburbanity, not totally unlike Ford Nation), Sarai seems far more foretelling than fluke. What might make this TCTC, in fact, is the Jagmeet effect--if there's anywhere it'd be a plus, it's in ridings with high Sikh/South Asian populations (as Brampton provincially in 2014/18 proved); and particularly now that he represents a nearby riding. (That is, assuming he's not the catastrophe some polls are predicting.)
22/08/20 South Islander
I don't see how this one is TCTC. Surrey North, the predecessor riding, went for Chuck Cadman for the Reform/Alliance when it was a protest party and again when he was an independent, and for his widow for a single term. However, it is not a naturally strong riding for the CPC. Despite the popularity of the provincial NDP here, the party struggles federally in the province when they are in power provincially. There is also considerable voter overlap between the BCNDP and LPC, particularly in greater Vancouver. With the the NDP struggling and no Cadman on the ballot, I cannot see any party other than the LPC winning Surrey Centre. Polls put the LPC in first or near-first in BC. Even if they don't come out on top in BC, Sarai's incumbency should put the LPC over the top here.
06/05/19 NDP13
Surrey Centre narrowly went to the NDP in the 2011 election, with Jinny Sims beating out now-MP Sukh Dhaliwal of the Liberals. However, Surrey seems to be slowly turning away from the Liberals, first in 2011 where they won no seats in Surrey, and then in the 2017 BC Provincial election where the NDP wiped out the Clark Liberals. Surrey Centre is union territory as well, with the industrial areas of Surrey within the riding. Overall, the NDP will most likely gain some support in the riding, with, as well as the conservatives, but ultimately the Liberals will edge out their competitors by around 5-10%.
25/03/19 Richmondite
I'm not so certain if this is a Liberal hold for sure at this point. This riding is the heart of NDP support provincially and looking at the numbers from 2015, the NDP only lost a small fraction of votes to the Liberals. Conversely, the Conservative vote collapsed in 2015 in favour of the Liberals which yielded the first Liberal MP for this riding ever. Given the past electoral history of Conservative/NDP incumbency and and increasingly densified urban demographic that tend to favour the Liberals and NDP, this sets the stage for a potential 3-way races come October. TCTC for now.
08/03/19 Sam
This is probably a Liberal hold, after switching between the Conservatives and NDP several times in 2015 the Liberals took this and if the Liberals shed votes to both sides as may happen it would take a lot of votes to be shed. The NDP overperformed provincially but it's unclear if they can repeat that trend again.

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