Election Prediction Project

Vancouver East
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:11:06

Constituency Profile


Buday, Gölök Z

Burns, Bridget

Corsetti, Chris

Demes, Kyle

Jamieson, Anne

Kwan, Jenny

Litzcke, Karin

Marcus, Peter


Jenny Kwan

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



21.53 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Jenny Kwan 2931649.90%
Edward Wong 1653228.20%
James Low 632210.80%
Wes Regan 53959.20%
Peter Marcus 5250.90%
D. Alex Millar 2160.40%
Anne Jamieson 2140.40%
Shawn Vulliez 1880.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3180.72%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Vancouver East
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

02/10/19 R.O.
Not a surprise but a mainstreet poll has Jenny Kwan leading here , been an ndp riding for a longtime.
NDP in front in Vancouver East: Mainstreet polls ,By Marco Vigliotti. Published on Oct 2, 2019 12:00am
17/09/19 A.S.
If we're dealing with a ‘no safe NDP seats’ circumstance, it's interesting to speculate on where the Liberal vote would come from--or for that matter, how ‘unsafe’ Vancouver East really is; relative to its one-term 90s interlude, it's hard to say whether it's gentrified *away* from the Libs (perhaps when it comes to the Little Italy elements, sort of like in Davenport) or *toward* the Libs (particularly when it comes to condos inching in from downtown, and maybe with Asian populations out east in Hastings-Sunrise). All in all, though, the gentrification/non-gentrification crosscurrents probably cancel one another out--and besides, Jagmeet's so far not campaigning like someone headed for a wipeout...
09/09/19 South Islander
This could be the only riding the NDP holds in all of BC, but I cannot see them losing it.
01/04/19 Craig
This has long been the safest NDP seat in Canada. Jagmeet Singh should be an asset here in a very multicultural riding, even though the party is polling poorly. Jenny Kwan is also very popular too, which should help her a lot here. After all, she survived the 2001 disaster for the BC NDP when they were virtually annihilated...
That said, in the future, I could see this swinging closer to the Liberals as gentrification continues. That is at least one or two elections away though, it hasn't got there yet. This is still mostly a working class to working poor riding which strongly favours the NDP, while this will likely be the worst riding for the Conservatives in western Canada.
23/03/19 Sam
I realise I made a minor mistake in my previous projection; the source I used stated that Jenny Kwan won with more than 50%, but she did not, coming just short. Nevertheless, safe NDP; this has been one of the few longtime NDP strongholds Federally and Provincially.
21/03/19 Sam
@JW summed this up quite well. The NDP also got over 50% here last time without an incumbent, a great performance which they can repeat.
19/03/19 Laurence Putnam
Previous poster is correct; if the NDP lose every other riding in the country, this is the one they keep. Indeed when they did lose every seat but two, provincially in 2001, this is one of the ones they did keep. The current incumbent in this race won the other one.
With the Liberals in ascendancy in the last cycle, the NDP only dipped just below 50% here. They should be back above 50% this go around.
18/02/19 JW
Vancouver East is arguably the most reliably NDP riding in the country. Considering:
- It is the only riding in Canada that has consistently elected NDP members since 1997.
- It returned NDP or CCF members in 24 of the 26 federal elections since its creation in 1935.
- Its component provincial ridings, Vancouver-Hastings and Vancouver-Mount Pleasant, both consistently returned NDP MLA since their creation in 1991 (being the only 2 ridings in the province withholding the Liberal wipeout in the 2001), and their predecessor riding Vancouver East has returned NDP and CCF MLAs in all but one election since its creation in 1933.

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