|Fully agree with what Laurence Putnam said. The Green/Independent candidacy could play spoiler to the Conservatives. Sure, JWR is a popular MP, but the election campaign is between the governing Liberals and the other parties. It's not like Bill Casey who was sticking up for his constituents in his vote, but rather, it will be sympathy and respect for JWR. Now, I believe that such sympathy and respect exists, but I don't believe that will be entirely the main issue. Too early to call.|
|I think a lot of people are vastly overestimating the personal appeal of JWR...if she does run as a Green it definitely is a huge game changer, and she will draw a lot of votes...but she's starting out with a base of 3%. Even getting that to 25% is going to be difficult. |
It's just a very broad assumption that to assume because JWR was mistreated in the SNC-Lavalin affair that a wave of sympathetic constituents will re-install her as an MP from the fifth party as some form of poetic justice aimed back at Trudeau. Many constituents vote purely along party lines and the Liberal machine here will still pack a wallop.
I'm thinking the real beneficiary here of a JWR Green candidacy is probably the Conservatives. With a possible progressive 3-way split they wouldn't need much to win. This is an affluent riding in the West side, absent Kits and UBC. Had it existed in 2011, the Conservatives would have won it with 35%. They may not need that much to win it this time if JWR runs a strong Green campaign.
|A prediction made based on the assumption that Jody Wilson-Reybould will run as an Independent, if she does, she will win. She'll win if she decides to run for another party as well. If Jody doesn't run, then this will become a three way race between CPC-NDP-Green.|
||Right Honourable Adult|
|Where Judy goes, this riding goes...and really this prediction is more about what party I think she's pick (based on her comments so far).|
|Wild card now. No matter what party JWR runs in, even as an independent, she can succeed. I don't see her joining either the Conservatives or NDP, judging by her attempts to remain within the Liberal caucus, and considering the substantially environmentalist stance that Liberals have taken, it really does not seem far off that Wilson Raybould could join the Green caucus and actually win.|
|My previous prediction turned out right, Jody's no longer a Liberal. If she runs, she'll win regardless of what she runs under. If she doesn't run, then, don't know who's going to win, I know who won't win, the Liberals.|
|Jody Wilson-Raybould will definitely be re-elected, as she has become even more liked here in the SNC-Lavalin fiasco. However, what banner/affiliation will she get re-elected as? |
If Trudeau is still PM (which seems likely), I'm going to make a guess that she gets re-elected as an Independent. I can't really see her crossing the floor from the LPC to the CPC or NDP, although she could win in either banner as well.
|This is the riding of Jody Wilson-Raybould, and as such, if she is tossed from the Liberals and runs as an Independent, she will win this riding. She can win it as a Liberal. She can win it as a New Democrat. She can win it as a Green. She can win it even as a Tory. It's her riding to lose.|
|Jodi Wilson-Reybould will in all likelihood not be the Liberal candidate here, after her testimony, she's most certainly fallen out of not only the PM's but also most of the other Liberal MP's. We'll have to wait and see what she does. It would be hard for the Liberals to keep the riding without Jodi|
|Jody Wilson-Reyboud may have received a demotion but this is a fairly solidly Liberal riding. The NDP is strong on the north end but very weak on the south end while Tories strong on the south end but weak on north end. Liberals by contrast are competitive throughout the riding so even if they underperform they should hold this one. As a bonus, any fallout from the SNC Lavalin scandal will likely work in her favour unlike in other ridings.|