|Everyone may not love Jody, but they don't dislike her. More importantly, she has shown enough guts and character that everyone respects her. Those who don't have her as first choice will have her as second choice, except for a small number of fierce Liberal partisans.|
Suppose those Mainstreet poll numbers hold 'till election day, or have the Liberals leading and the other parties considerably in arrears. Conservative, Green, and NDP voters will ask themselves, would we rather have a Liberal 'yes' candidate to represent us, or an independent member who has demonstrated her integrity under fire? I think the answer is obvious.
For the same reason, any two-way race between JWR and *any* other party candidate, strategic voting is likely to give JWR victory. The only way the vote split won't favour her, is a close 3- or 4- way race where other party supporters all think they have a chance to win.
Not only does JWR have a clear shot at winning, she has considerably more than a 50% chance to take the riding.
|Islander, Elizabeth May said in an interview on CTV that the Greens will run candidates against Raybould and Philpott, but that they won't be full-scale Green campaigns.|
|I don't expect the Greens to run a candidate here, so I'd imagine that much of their support on the recent poll will go to Jody instead. That puts Jody at a reasonable enough margin over the Liberals that I'd call this a decently safe bet. Also, the Conservatives apparently not gaining support here is worth taking note of.|
|A new Mainstreet riding poll shows a close race between Wilson-Raybould & the new Liberal candidate: Wilson-Raybould (32%), Liberals (29%), Conservatives (20%), Greens (10%), NDP (8%)|
|Everyone DOES NOT love Jody. While she certainly has her fans, some of her (and Jane's) biggest cheerleaders are the two main opposition parties. The reason, she (and Jane and Celina) did what the opposition parties failed to do over four years: damage the governing Liberal party and Justin Trudeau. These opposition partisans are not going to support Jody in the election, but rather take the opportunity to try and win this seat. An opportunity that did not exist before this whole kerfuffle started. As well, there are many non-partisans who will/have looked at what happened, and not see a "woman who spoke her truth and stood up to authority", but rather someone who is manipulating an in-office disagreement with their boss to their own advantage. There will be comparisons to Bill Casey and John Nunziata, but both of these MPs were seen as fighting directly for their constituents (saving the Atlantic Accord and killing the GST respectively). Jody can not make the same clear cut claim that Trudeau was doing something directly against the best interests of the voters of Vancouver-Granville. As such, she will not get the same level of support as Bill and John did in their independent election runs. |
Now that's out of the way, unlike with Jane in Markham, I do not think Jody is in a hopeless situation. I do think she has a decent chance at winning this seat. The poster with whom I, so far, agree with most is Laurence Putnam. A very good analysis of what likely will happen. That said, I do have a few aspects where I disagree with him. Here's how I see the various players panning out:
Greens: Will not run a candidate, especially after Jody and Jane's public comments about being "natural allies". While the party constitution requires all ridings to have a Green candidate, I think it'll be either a paper candidate or one who will step down and endorse Jody.
Conservatives: Would have won this riding in 2011 if it existed. There is significant support for team blue here. That said, Conservative support has not increased substantially in Vancouver/Vancouver Island (many polls show lost Liberal support not heading to the CPC). This leads me to believe that the CPC will get between 25 - 30% of the vote in this riding.
NDP: Singh has tried hard to return the party to it's glory days in the mid 90's. Under those conditions the NDP won't have prayer.
JRW: She will get a good chunk of the vote. However, I do think she will suffer from the Green Party phenomenon: stronger support in the pre-election polls, but lower support on election day (see Liberals below). She'll do better than Jane in Markham, but still under 30%.
Liberals: Despite their record, strategic voting will be their friend. This is a progressive riding and voters generally do not want another Conservative government. If it looks like a minority government (of one colour or another), then many voters will hold their nose and vote Liberal (an example: my sister-in-law's mother is a dye-in-the-wool NDPer in Edmonton-Mill Woods. She is planning to vote Liberal for the first time in her life to prevent the CPC winning her seat). Conversely, if the Liberals are clearly doomed, then strategic voting goes out the window.
At this moment in time, I say TCTC in a three-way race: LIB/CPC/JWR, with JWR being the king maker. If the Liberals are looking like they'll crash and burn, I expect a CPC/JWR two-way race.
|Jody Wilson-Reybould will run and win as an Independent. This riding belongs to Jody Wilson-Reybould.|
|Well it's official...JWR is running as an independent. I'm going to make what I think if my craziest call yet to date, though the more I think about it I don't think it's so crazy. |
Does this really sound that far fetched?
(We could split hairs and argue whether you want to swap JWR & NDP result, or tweak numbers a little bit here and there but I digress...)
Given current trends this does not seem too far of a stretch to me. Anyone that voted Conservative last time is still voting that way...there will not be a lot of Tories who decided that they were wrong about Trudeau, or who like the more clearly defined left wing vision of Jagmeet Singh. That segment of voters is solid as bedrock and they were probably going to pick up a few more anyway. That's what the recent BC by-elections seem to have shown as well.
So with a good local campaign and a FOUR WAY progressive vote split, I would say a Tory with 29-33% of the vote (they would have got 35% in 2011) can win this and enjoy the brief experience of being an MP without the financial security of the pension which as I recall you have to serve six years to get. In other words, I would see this riding being handed back to the Liberals in a subsequent election.
|I think Ms. Wilson-Raybould will eke out a victory here as an independent. I think she will get about half of the Liberal vote she got last time, a few sympathetic Tories, a LOT of sympathetic votes from the collapsing NDP and...who knows...maybe the Greens will stand down in this riding.|
|Wilson-Raybould announced today that she will be running as an Independent. She may not get enough support to win, but perhaps the pollsters will conduct riding polls to provide more information here.|
|Jody Wilson Raybould has chosen to run as an independent. She is popular among both right-leaning and left-leaning people. Now that we know that she's committed to running as an independent, she will most certainly drain votes from the Liberals and possibly the NDP, making this a race between her and the Conservatives. I believe she'll pull through.|
|Fully agree with what Laurence Putnam said. The Green/Independent candidacy could play spoiler to the Conservatives. Sure, JWR is a popular MP, but the election campaign is between the governing Liberals and the other parties. It's not like Bill Casey who was sticking up for his constituents in his vote, but rather, it will be sympathy and respect for JWR. Now, I believe that such sympathy and respect exists, but I don't believe that will be entirely the main issue. Too early to call.|
|I think a lot of people are vastly overestimating the personal appeal of JWR...if she does run as a Green it definitely is a huge game changer, and she will draw a lot of votes...but she's starting out with a base of 3%. Even getting that to 25% is going to be difficult. |
It's just a very broad assumption that to assume because JWR was mistreated in the SNC-Lavalin affair that a wave of sympathetic constituents will re-install her as an MP from the fifth party as some form of poetic justice aimed back at Trudeau. Many constituents vote purely along party lines and the Liberal machine here will still pack a wallop.
I'm thinking the real beneficiary here of a JWR Green candidacy is probably the Conservatives. With a possible progressive 3-way split they wouldn't need much to win. This is an affluent riding in the West side, absent Kits and UBC. Had it existed in 2011, the Conservatives would have won it with 35%. They may not need that much to win it this time if JWR runs a strong Green campaign.
|A prediction made based on the assumption that Jody Wilson-Reybould will run as an Independent, if she does, she will win. She'll win if she decides to run for another party as well. If Jody doesn't run, then this will become a three way race between CPC-NDP-Green.|
||Right Honourable Adult|
|Where Judy goes, this riding goes...and really this prediction is more about what party I think she's pick (based on her comments so far).|
|Wild card now. No matter what party JWR runs in, even as an independent, she can succeed. I don't see her joining either the Conservatives or NDP, judging by her attempts to remain within the Liberal caucus, and considering the substantially environmentalist stance that Liberals have taken, it really does not seem far off that Wilson Raybould could join the Green caucus and actually win.|
|My previous prediction turned out right, Jody's no longer a Liberal. If she runs, she'll win regardless of what she runs under. If she doesn't run, then, don't know who's going to win, I know who won't win, the Liberals.|
|Jody Wilson-Raybould will definitely be re-elected, as she has become even more liked here in the SNC-Lavalin fiasco. However, what banner/affiliation will she get re-elected as? |
If Trudeau is still PM (which seems likely), I'm going to make a guess that she gets re-elected as an Independent. I can't really see her crossing the floor from the LPC to the CPC or NDP, although she could win in either banner as well.
|This is the riding of Jody Wilson-Raybould, and as such, if she is tossed from the Liberals and runs as an Independent, she will win this riding. She can win it as a Liberal. She can win it as a New Democrat. She can win it as a Green. She can win it even as a Tory. It's her riding to lose.|
|Jodi Wilson-Reybould will in all likelihood not be the Liberal candidate here, after her testimony, she's most certainly fallen out of not only the PM's but also most of the other Liberal MP's. We'll have to wait and see what she does. It would be hard for the Liberals to keep the riding without Jodi|
|Jody Wilson-Reyboud may have received a demotion but this is a fairly solidly Liberal riding. The NDP is strong on the north end but very weak on the south end while Tories strong on the south end but weak on north end. Liberals by contrast are competitive throughout the riding so even if they underperform they should hold this one. As a bonus, any fallout from the SNC Lavalin scandal will likely work in her favour unlike in other ridings.|