Election Prediction Project

North Island-Powell River
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:11:10

Constituency Profile


Blaney, Rachel

de Bruijn, Mark

Downey, Shelley

Neal, Carla

Rundle, Brian

Schwarzhoff, Peter

Staples, Glen


Rachel Blaney

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



53659.67 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Rachel Blaney 2434040.20%
Laura Smith 1584026.20%
Peter Schwarzhoff 1541625.50%
Brenda Sayers 49408.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3670.72%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Vancouver Island North
   (81.17% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country
   (18.83% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

27/09/19 JSn
There is more voter to voter conversation & cooperation going on, especially on the Island, than people without direct contacts there know.
Effectively hundreds to thousands of GreeNDP votes are fluidly swapping around, with the Southerners willing to vote Green if their Green-leaning friends north will vote NDP. The lower key Green campaigns in the North are going to show less support than typical. Far less split.
22/09/19 Walnut
I can see that this will go either NDP or Conservative but I can't say with any confidence which. NDP Blaney is probably the favourite as the incumbent and because of her profile in Campbell River. Being from the small, remote town of Port McNeill Conservative Downey will have more difficult time raising her profile elsewhere in the riding. This is made more ambiguous because the Greens are running a good candidate in de Bruijn who will increase the party's vote share. Even the People's Rundle is making an effort that could result in a percent or two.
19/09/19 A.S.
Frankly, it’s incredible that Blaney won by as much as she did, given the preceding string of CPC-NDP heartbreakers around these parts--though of course, it’s a bit the illusion of 2015’s perfect Lib-Con split and Green bottom-feeding. And ironically, a critical factor to the scale of victory was the reinstatement of Powell River, which had spent a generation as a hopelessly impotent Dipper rump within West Van riding. The main thing working against Blaney now: the ‘no safe riding’ NDP conventional wisdom (though the local economy isolates NIPR from the more Green-favourable dynamics down the island)
18/07/19 Laurence Putnam
It's going to be really interesting to see how this riding unravels; I too think the Green ceiling here is fairly low, although I would expect to see a good uptick in their result here particularly from the Powell River area, mostly at the expense of the Liberals I would say.
Most of the towns in this riding are dying mill towns (or at least former mill towns that are trying to re-invent themselves in some way) and the biggest employer in all of them is the Government. The hospitals, Ferries, Canada Post and everyone else who's in a union job provide the NDP with a solid base here.
There are enough hunters and small business people that you'd think the Conservatives would put up a fight once in a while but they never seem to be able to muster it around here.
Eventually the Green split if it continues could make things interesting here but I think you have to figure the NDP remain the front runners here.
Even if they lose every other seat on Vancouver Island (a distinct and horrifying possibility for dippers) they ought to hold onto this.
04/06/19 seasaw
This race is too early to call, but it's going to be a fight between the NDP and the Conservatives. Liberals did well enough the last time but that was a high water mark for them. They're not likely to do as well this time which raises the question, where are their votes going to go? Also, we can't count out the Green surge either. Anyway, more accurate prediction will come close to the election
07/05/19 Craig
Should be a close race between the NDP and the Conservative. As mentioned, the Greens probably won't come close to winning here (the North Island is more resource-dependent) but they could play spoiler and potentially split the vote enough for a Conservative pickup.
The NDP vote will likely decrease with some leakage to the Greens, but it should be more stable than in the rest of the Island. The key is the Liberal vote - can the CPC pick up some of it? They will need a few points of it (with the help of the Greens splitting the vote) to win back the seat. Otherwise, probably an NDP hold. Too close to call.
31/03/19 Sam
I largely agree with what @M. Lunn had to say, and I don't think we can call this yet. Although it requires unique circumstances for a Conservative gain, there is a good chance of them occurring.
23/02/19 M. Lunn
I agree the NDP are favoured here, but I wouldn't totally rule out the Tories. They will likely do better than they did in 2015, but probably worse than 2011, however unlike 2011 will have stronger splits on the left so although I think NDP has the edge here, I want to wait until we get closer to e-day before calling this.
22/02/19 Islander
Blaney's relatively decent margin over the Conservatives came from an apparent swing towards the Liberals, which will likely lose slack this time around. While this is the least Green riding on the Island, the Greens will still gain something this time around looking at the current polls. Still, the NDP appears to have a relatively strong base here in comparison to the Conservatives, so I'm leaning towards a close victory for them for now.

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