Dwellings occupied by usual residents:
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
|Dennis Fraser Bevington **
2011 Results (redistributed)
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
(100% of voters in current riding)
Reference - Pundits’ Guide
||North of Ottawa Centre|
|For what it's worth, 338 is now predicting this as an NDP win again, so perhaps TCTC at best and not Liberal.|
|This may well end up being the only riding outside of Quebec in which the Liberals achieve victory by an even greater margin than in 2015. I also predict that it will be the only seat they'll win on a longitude between Vancouver and Winnipeg. |
The Conservatives and NDP both had candidates with no meaningful prior political experience and little name recognition acclaimed, the latter of which is essential for any candidate in a federal election to have any hope of victory in the Northwest Territories.
The Liberals have carpet-bombed the Northwest Territories with funding announcements over the past few weeks and Michael McLeod has made each announcement. With the Northwest Territories being a welfare territory, there isn't the same cynicism towards this approach that there rightfully is down south.
The Trudeau Liberals are largely adored by Indigenous residents of the Northwest Territories and many of the non-Indigenous public servants in Yellowknife who voted for the NDP last election will be voting Liberal this election. I predict that the Liberals will cruise to victory with 60+% of the vote.
|Bevington's not *altogether* a special case; the North (not to mention adjoining ridings in provinces) has been known to elect federal New Democrats in the past if they're seen as serving their interests, so it's not like they're averse to sending a message third parties (or in Audrey McLaughlin's 1993 Yukon case, fourth/fifth). But the NDP certainly doesn't seem in the shape to pull that off this time--and as for the Cons, they were distant third with a former territorial premier last time, so what does that tell you...|
|Bevington was a special case who won while the Liberals were in decline. Now as the governing party, it would be very unlikely for NWT to choose a third party candidate, and the Tories are not in the running here. Essentially Liberal by default.|
|The North and Territories of Canada are an area that the 2015 Liberal Surge was very noticeable in, and if the polling is accurate it appears to be staying. In the Northwest Territories incumbent Liberal Michael McLeod won by a significant margin, and is running for re-election. These ridings are more elastic than others, but it remains to be seen whether the NDP can actually challenge the Liberals here. More likely is the Liberals winning with above 40% of the vote, which I expect to happen.|