Election Prediction Project

Ottawa West-Nepean
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-29 20:05:44

Constituency Profile


Hameed, Yavar

Jennekens, Jennifer

Mulligan, Sean

Stibbe, David

Vandenbeld, Anita

Yeo, David


Anita Vandenbeld

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



65.21 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Anita Vandenbeld ** 2837845.60%
Abdul Abdi 1687627.10%
Angella MacEwen 1164618.70%
David Stibbe 38946.30%
Serge Guevorkian 8391.30%
Sean Mulligan 3510.60%
Vincent Cama 1030.20%
Butch Moore 710.10%
Nick Lin 480.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Anita Vandenbeld 3519955.90%
Abdul Abdi 1889330.00%
Marlene Rivier 61959.80%
Mark Brooks 17722.80%
Rod Taylor 7401.20%
Sam Heaton 1140.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 30.01%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Ottawa West-Nepean
   (99.62% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Ottawa Centre
   (0.38% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Jeremy Roberts 1659032.82%
Chandra Pasma 1641532.48%
Bob Chiarelli * 1481029.3%
Pat Freel 19373.83%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 3180.68%

05/09/21 Wildflower
Before the pandemic, most people were working, or going to college, or university.
When the pandemic hit, nobody knew at the time on how long this pandemic would be, and we had no vaccines.
It took awhile but eventually we got vaccines,and now we have 80%of the population 12 years and older vaccinated. Which is pretty high of a vaccination rate if you look at how other countries are doing when it comes to vaccination.
Mind you,we need tons of economic recovery because so many people, and small to mid businesses either laid people off, or shut down because of the covid measures. I think the lockdowns and covid measures coming from Queens Park, may have pushed some people over the edge.That is why there were so many anti lockdown protests. Many of the right wing voters against the face mask policies &lockdowns are supporting David Yeo ,the people Party Candidate this time around in the election because they are sick of the lockdowns.
From the left wing, well the NDP are only really strong in Britannia because of Theresa Kavanagh & Alex Cullen and their NDP friends that live in Britannia. I remember at 1 point Theresa Kavangh was school Board Trustee , while her husband Alex cullen was city councillor years ago. Some people had a problem with 2 people from the same household holding a position in office. So that is why the Liberals were able to make a break through in 2015, 2019. I can see some NDP Voters voting liberal to stop Conservatives because the Liberals are planning to hire more personal support workers& family doctors if they get re-elected. NDP in this riding are focused on healthcare.
Liberals have done a good job at getting people vaccinated for 12 year olds and up, and they have put up with opposition while getting people vaccinated. Liberals listen to the health Professionals, and the Scientists, while Conservatives in the past ignored scientists.
David Stibbe, Green party Candidate, has also done a good job to get awareness out there on climate change, and the need to prevent flooding. He reminded people of the past floods we had in Britannia. Actually , he is from Britannia, so he has more credibility on climate change then the NDP and the Liberals. Just unfortunate,the Greens base is quite small outside of the Britannia.
Since the right wing vote are against the face masks, lockdowns , I think the right wing vote will split between Conservatives and people party. I think Liberals will get their vote out, and will pick up k support from other voters who dont want to see healthcare being privatized, and they want action on climate change , and more job creation.
Keep in mind, the Conservative Candidate is not from the riding, and most people are local minded focus , and tend to vote for a person who is more locally driven across the riding..
So I have a feeling, Liberals will hold this riding , but they wont be so far ahead in the polls this time because NDP, conservatives are behind them in less % of the vote.
03/09/21 Matt B.
Signage is dominated by both the LPC and the CPC on private lawns, with a spattering of other parties. This is a middle-class suburb with some higher-earning households and also a significant amount of high-density apartments in certain areas. It was reported today that both Liberal and Conservative signs are being defaced (red X's on CPC signs, and the number ‘1984’ scrawled across LPC signs). The LPC is still leading in polls, but the gap is closing and I believe this riding will be hotly contested. The NDP are currently at 25% and rising and could act as a spoiler. To say this is a secure Liberal riding is premature. This riding is in contention, I think it needs to shift into the ‘too close to call’. Libs might still pull it off though. Anger at Trudeau is pretty high.
02/09/21 Sexywildcat
I think the Liberals will hold onto this riding because they invested into the LRT, and other infrastructure projects. Plus the riding has many public servants, and more francophones, migrants who are now Permanent residents living in the riding. On top of this , many residents care about climate change, and Otoole promises on climate are too weak for the residents who live in Britannia, Bayshore, and Carling wood, and around Algonquin College. Keep in mind, there are also many students who live in the riding, and many baby boomers& women& seniors care about their public healthcare services.Most people in the riding do not want a 2 tier healthcare system. Since the pandemic happened, many people are looking at protecting their public healthcare services, and do not want to pay user fees. On top of this, they would rather have full time jobs with health benefits that Liberals tend to offer in Public service , where Conservatives are more focused on part time lower waged jobs in fast food take outs, and some retail outlets. So yes , I see the Liberals holding onto this riding by 5-10 % of the vote. Plus, the Conservative Candidate is not locally from the riding and does not know the local scene that well. Many People who are right wing in the riding are voting for the People Party Candidate because he is local, tight with the chinese Fa la long right wing Chinese party that own the epoch times news paper. Yes, many Right wingers prefer Bernier ove rOtoole in the Ottawa & Gatineau region because he is a Francophone. Many right wingers in Ottawa are opposed to the face mask polciies that Otoole supports.
So yes , Liberals could win this seat for the 3rd time from the right wing vote splitting. win by 5-10 5 of the vote .
31/08/21 R.O.
This riding actually has a long history of being a swing riding despite talk of it becoming more liberal. Anita Vandenbeld was first elected here in 2015 after an unsuccessful run against John Baird in 2011. The conservatives have a new candidate this year Jennifer Jennekens who has never ran before but had been a school board trustee . the riding went pc provincially by a tiny margin as the ndp did way better than expected here. will depend how the race plays out in Ontario
27/08/21 Jeff Wilson
The sign wars are in full swing the Liberals seem to have dominated the main intersections (particularly along Baseline) but the CPC seem to have an edge with representation on people's actual lawns. This is an indication of where things actually stand. There is frustration with Trudeau although Anita Vandenbeld is not unpopular. I think it will be CPC in the end but a close race.
28/05/21 MF
With the NOVA-ization of Ottawa since 2015, the days of John Baird seem like ancient history now. The Liberals should have no problem here.
08/08/21 A.S.
Even when John Baird ruled, he had his mid-40s ceiling and the riding's Lib lifeblood was always bubbling and waiting to burst out--which it did, in '15. Though there was a 10-point slide in the Lib share by '19; but perhaps more like exhaling after strategic overleverage the previous time around--and even here, just as in Ottawa South, the notion of NDP hopping over CPC for 2nd is looking increasingly *un*-implausible.

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