Bowers, Robert M.
	Ferreri, Michelle
	Lachica, Joy
	Lawton, Paul
	Monsef, Maryam
	White, Chanté
Incumbent:
	Maryam Monsef

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			118176 115264 62328 50142 3025.15 km² 39.10/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Maryam Monsef **	27400	39.30%
	Michael Skinner	24357	34.90%
	Candace Shaw	11872	17.00%
	Andrew MacGregor	4930	7.10%
	Alexander Murphy	890	1.30%
	Robert M Bowers	180	0.30%
	Ken Ranney	172	0.20%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Maryam Monsef	29159	43.80%
	Michael Skinner	23335	35.10%
	Dave Nickle	12437	18.70%
	Doug Mason	1480	2.20%
	Toban Leckie	131	0.20%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		28436	49.56%
		14342	24.99%
		12231	21.32%
		2107	3.67%
Other		268	0.47%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Peterborough    (93.59% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock    (6.41% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction
	Dave Smith	22904	37.68%
	Sean Conway	20518	33.75%
	Jeff Leal *	14946	24.59%
	Gianne Broughton	2024	3.33%
2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)
		24413	45.71%
		16407	30.72%
		9666	18.10%
		2292	4.29%
Other		635	1.19%

	19/09/21	Drew613 198.103.96.11
@prognosticator15, Peterborough-Kawartha is the ultimate bellwether riding. Every election except 1980 has seen this riding elect the candidate from the party that forms government (see: https://globalnews.ca/news/8177425/peterborough-kawartha-federal-election-bellwether/). The polls are showing that Liberals are clearly heading for victory nationally (even if it's only a reduced minority), so I'm going predict the ultimate bellwether stays that way this time around, even if Monsef wins an even narrower squeaker than in 2019.
	18/09/21	prognosticator15 97.108.177.163
Alias Philip comments below are interesting, but I think it is now safe to put this riding in Conservative column. To think one vaccine instead of two changes the dynamics here is a weak argument, I think, and is mostly for those who already accept Justin's vaccine scaremongering - surely, Lib scare strategies tended to be partly effective historically (ex. two-tier health system, with Red Tories not really even pushing one now), but it's unlikely this year's Lib rude vaccine scare strategy works that well. I am not sure it's a bellweather riding either: more than anything, sharp anti-Lib feelings and Eastern Ontario pro-Cons dynamics may be decisive factors now. Monsef's reveal of extreme views on a policy issue complicates her troubles, but she would probably lose anyway.
	17/09/21	Alias Philip Lee McClennan 192.249.135.247
To be a bellwether riding, you must not just have demographics on your side: you must have a history of prioritizing the party leader well over the local candidate. And even if that weren't so, in Ptbo we now have a situation where each of the two frontrunners have made significant faux-pas. First Monsef, with her ... questionable choice of words regarding Afghanistan and the Taliban. And then Ferreri, who indicated she was vaccinated, but now it turns out not so much, as in only partially, meanwhile visiting retirement homes on the campaign trail. How voters judge these two items likely reflects which way they lean politically in the first place, so it seems to me like it will just be a wash in the end. As always it will come down to the national and the provincial polling (until some day it doesn't, of course). Which the sign wars indicate are in line with the city/county aggregate, to my eyes. Liberals edging out Tories in the city, with a stronger than usual NDP showing, and a smattering of Green and PPC support. More Conservatives in the country, and also more PPC. Is it enough to make up the difference? And how much erstwhile NDP and PPC support ends up decamping to middle ground? The trends over the final weekend will end up telling the tale, not the colourful adventures of the local candidates.
	17/09/21	Peterborough Guy 76.68.109.165
People in Peterborough-Kawartha are very upset with Conservative candidate, Michelle Ferreri because she said she went to a senior’s residence when she was only partially vaccinated against Covid. Many are questioning why she was not fully vaccinated months ago when she was eligible. This has shifted support away from her and coupled with many NDP and Green Party voters looking to vote strategically and voting Liberal. Maryam Monsef should be re-elected.
	17/09/21	Peterborough Guy 76.68.109.165
People in Peterborough-Kawartha are very upset with Conservative candidate, Michelle Ferreri because she said she went to a senior’s residence when she was only partially vaccinated against Covid. Many are questioning why she was not fully vaccinated months ago when she was eligible. This has shifted support away from her and coupled with many NDP and Green Party voters looking to vote strategically and voting Liberal. Maryam Monsef should be re-elected.
	14/09/21	kingstonstudent 130.15.35.44
Even though she held onto the riding in 2019 Maryam Monsef's reputation has declined precipitously since then - speaking anecdotally, family members of mine in Peterborough who are also diehard Liberals have been incredibly disappointed in her. Based on 2019's results the Liberals would have to be in majority territory for this to be a lock, and clearly that hasn't worked out. If she does hold on, it will be due to the NDP continuing their tradition of underperformance compared to the old Linda Slavin days, but with their polling staying put close to 20% that seems unlikely.
	08/09/21	Thomas K 24.85.228.170
Peterborough-Kawartha is a bellwether riding, and with a prime minister O'Toole looking increasingly likely, that is one reason to believe this will flip, coupled with his good polling in Ontario. Then, Maryam Monsef, who is already a more disliked and partisan MP in the Liberal caucus, referring to the Taliban as ‘brothers’ is clearly going to be the final nail in the coffin for her campaign here.
	05/09/21	Wildflower 172.83.175.119
Not sure if Maryam Monsef can hold this seat after what she said about Afghanistan . I think if she hanged her approach she might be able to hold onto the seat, but there might not be enough time for her to do it. Hard to say
	04/09/21	JC 70.24.89.29
Monsef was not that popular and felt more like part of the Trudeau wave. His numbers are too low, her campaign would have to ignite passion, not sure that is going to happen leading to Liberals staying home or going CPC. Also could see this going CPC and breaking the bellwether tradition as the Libs are strong in their traditional urban strongholds.
	02/09/21	R.O. 24.146.13.237
New mainstreet poll for Peterborough , cpc candidate Michelle Ferreri is at 40 % , Maryam Monsef is at 27 % and ndp candidate Joy Lachica is at 19 %. https://ipolitics.ca/2021/09/02/maryam-monsef-falls-in-polls-after-calling-taliban-our-brothers/
	01/09/21	PTBO Pundit 24.235.193.106
Changing my prediction... We always wonder if a local candidate could ever do something so significant to make a difference in the local race. ‘Taliban / brothers’ is that *something*. That remark eliminated Monsef from politics once and for all. Tory gain.
	27/08/21	NIck M. 172.219.67.212
A very competitive nomination battle for the CPC, means this candidate will have brought in a well organized battle ready ground game.
	26/08/21	R.O. 24.146.13.237
Maryan Monsef was first elected in 2015 replacing former mp Dean Del Mastro who had been elected as a conservative in 2006. This riding has the reputation of being a swing riding and generally goes to the winner. The conservatives and ndp have new candidates this year Michael Skinner has been replaced by Michelle Ferrari as cpc candidate. Joy Lachica is the new ndp candidate I’m not aware of any specific local issues which would influence the race here so comes down to what goes on in Ontario and at this point I’d hold off on making a solid prediction
	19/08/21	Outside Inside 198.103.208.3
And just like that, an 'insurmountable' Liberal lead has turned into a competitive national contest, and so it will be the case in Peterborough-Kawartha as well, the closest there is to a riding that represents baseline political Canadiana. Monsef will probably not rise above her party's fortunes. Her profile at the helm of the portfolio most connected to the Liberals' self-styled 'feminist government' didn't result in any sort of outperforming expectations in this riding in 2019, and nothing in the past two years suggests that will change. The current Conservative candidate also has more of a local profile than the previous candidate did, which doesn't hurt. Will remain too close to call as long as the election as a whole does.
	09/07/21	PTBO Pundit 24.235.193.106
The Liberals have an insurmountable lead nationally so its already over in this riding. Also the Liberal incumbent is using the well honed, time honored tradition of telling silly stories about fictitious train stops. If there's one thing everyone loves in Peterborough, its fake trains.
	23/06/21	Stevo 164.177.56.217
It's quite repetitive each election cycle, but needs to be said. Peterborough remains, after all this time, the top bellwether seat in Canada (and the top Ontario provincial bellwether too). Yes perhaps THIS will be the election where it breaks that longstanding record, but I wouldn't bet on it.
	11/05/21	Craig 24.233.229.249
If the election was tomorrow, the Liberals would be strongly favoured in Peterborough-Kawartha as they are leading in polls. However, this is the ultimate bellwether in Canada. Hence, if the Conservatives can rise in the polls, they can't be ruled out here. As a result, it is a fool's errand to predict a winner here this early. There's something about Peterborough that makes it a microcosm of Canada and that has lasted for decades, as it falls near average on just about every indicator. There's no reason why it won't continue this time around.
	08/08/21	A.S. 99.225.52.35
Bellwetherdom is a creature of circumstance, it isn't cast in stone--had Peter Adams run again in 2006, or had the Libs run a better candidate in his stead, they probably could have prevailed over Dean Del Mastro that year. (Though even without his legal troubles, Del Mastro would have been a likelier defeatee in '15.) Central/Eastern Ontario second-term ambivalence over the Justin Libs (together with Monsef's weaknesses) explain the diminished margin here, at least compared to the increased margins in places like Waterloo Region and London--though P'boro being the most ‘metropolitan’ urban centre btw/the GTA and Kingston explains why the falloff wasn't quite so drastic as in Bay Of Quinte; there's more of an organic Liberal cushion in the big city, IOW. And this *is* increasingly a part of the outermost Toronto commuter orbit, which exudes its own ‘Liberalization’ effect--then again, if political regionalism still counts for anything, it's can also be seen as the 115-connected outer edge of O'Toole country...