Bunko, Stefanie
	Everaert, Brian
	Gladu, Marilyn
	Kilner, Adam
	Laird, Tom
	Nantais, Lois
Incumbent:
	Marilyn Gladu

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			105337 106293 47953 45594 1477.68 km² 71.30/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Marilyn Gladu **	28623	49.40%
	Adam Kilner	12644	21.80%
	Carmen Lemieux	12041	20.80%
	Peter Robert Smith	2490	4.30%
	Brian Everaert	1587	2.70%
	Thomas Laird	531	0.90%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Marilyn Gladu	22565	38.80%
	Jason Wayne McMichael	18102	31.10%
	Dave McPhail	15853	27.30%
	Peter Smith	1605	2.80%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		26112	52.58%
		14856	29.91%
		6931	13.96%
		1252	2.52%
Other		514	1.03%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Sarnia-Lambton    (100% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction
	Bob Bailey *	26811	52.75%
	Kathy Alexander	18995	37.37%
	Neil Wereley	2246	4.42%
	Kevin Shaw	1856	3.65%
2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)
		8152	17.86%
		18722	41.01%
		16327	35.77%
		2109	4.62%
Other		340	0.74%

	06/09/21	R.O. 24.146.13.237
Marilyn Gladu was first elected in 2015 and re elected in 2019. Sarnia has been conservative since 2006 but in past had been a swing riding. Although rural south western Ontario has become more conservative federally than years past.
	25/05/21	seasaw 99.225.229.135
Last election, many expected this to be a three way race, some even though it could go NDP or Liberal, but Gladu won by a margin of over 15,000 votes. She's well liked and hard working. CPC hold.
	08/08/21	A.S. 99.225.52.35
A place of quixotic and not *entirely* out-of-line NDP hope over the course of the past 15 years--vestigially evident in their '19 2nd place and scattering of polls won within Sarnia proper. Not that the Dippers should abandon their long-term investment, but here's something to bite on: the NDP was also in 2nd in Oxford, and with a similar margin separating them from the victorious Cons. So as it now stands, why Sarnia-Lambton, and not Oxford? (Yeah, I know: ‘it's complicated’. And I guess Gladu as one of the more trollish Cons makes for a more tempting target.)