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Moose Jaw-Lake Centre-Lanigan
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2021-05-11 22:44:52
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Craik, Chey

Hunter, Isaiah

Regent, Talon

Tolmie, Fraser

Townsend, David Craig

Zimmer, Katelyn


Incumbent:

Tom Lukiwski

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

79733
76106

39278
32792

32333.62 km²
2.50/km²


2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Tom Lukiwski ** 3199371.10%
Talon Regent 766017.00%
Cecilia Melanson 25175.60%
Chey Craik 16133.60%
Gillian Walker 12012.70%


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Tom Lukiwski ** 2327355.50%
Dustan Hlady 997823.80%
Perry Juttla 754518.00%
Shawn Setyo 9612.30%
Robert Thomas 2080.50%


2011 Results (redistributed)

2296360.96%
1225632.54%
14273.79%
10202.71%
Other 90.02%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Palliser
   (50.75% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Blackstrap
   (24.27% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre
   (22.3% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Saskatoon-Humboldt
   (1.2% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Souris-Moose Mountain
   (1.15% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Wascana
   (0.33% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


14/09/21 Jon
184.151.246.230
This is a normally safe conservative seat, but I see it being too close to call and leaning for the PPC according to the sign war. I didn't see many conservative signs in the area, but Moose Jaw is covered in PPC signs, and that is in the city, so I can't imagine what the country folks are thinking. Potential upset here.
21/08/21 A.S.
99.225.52.35
With a sizeable urban centre in the middle of it all, once more NDP-compatible--the main vestige of that being a CPC share closer to 70% than 80%. And said compatibility really worked better when the riding had part of Regina stapled onto it back in the ‘rurban riding’ days. Who knows, maybe as an open seat, maybe w/generic NDP rise, maybe w/attrition in a PPC/Maverick direction, it'll go back into being CPC submajority (oh, and this is the riding where Brad Trost failed in his CPC-nomination comeback bid)
20/08/21 themusicgod1
70.64.120.188
Safe blue seat in prairie heartland, unless the PPC pull a wild card.
17/08/21 R.O.
24.146.13.237
This riding has no incumbent as longtime mp Tom Kukiwiski has retired and new cpc candidate Fraser Tolmie although its been conservative for so long its more than likely going to stay cpc.
11/05/21 VotreChoix
149.202.238.204
Rural riding in Saskatchewan, should be safe CPC barring a surge from the Mavericks or PPC.



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