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Regina-Lewvan
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2021-05-11 22:44:52
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Cameron, Susan

Donaldson, Tria

Kletchko, Roderick

Steinley, Warren

Wright, Michael


Incumbent:

Warren Steinley

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

92426
79587

38657
36895

58.00 km²
1593.60/km²


2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Warren Steinley 2708852.50%
Jigar Patel 1476728.60%
Winter Fedyk 682613.20%
Naomi Hunter 20994.10%
Trevor Wowk 5731.10%
Don Morgan 2010.40%
Ian Bridges 600.10%


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Erin Weir 1684335.20%
Trent Fraser 1671134.90%
Louis Browne 1314327.50%
Tamela Friesen 8391.80%
Wojciech K Dolata 2980.60%


2011 Results (redistributed)

1689343.86%
1739845.17%
31568.19%
10612.75%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre
   (66.57% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Palliser
   (33.43% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


14/09/21 Physastr Master
72.182.100.229
Due to the Conservative nosedive in Saskatchewan accompanying a significant PPC surge this is now in play. 338 is predicting a marginal NDP win, and tooclosetocall is predicting a marginal conservative win. This riding at least deserves to be marked as TCTC to remedy the degree to which it has been overlooked so far. Remember we are only one election removed from this being an NDP riding, and that was such a disastrous incumbency that the people of Regina really can't be blamed for wanting the NDP gone. The fading of the Erin Weir debacle from memory should help Regina-Lewvan's return to the NDP, but it is currently close enough that I think TCTC is the appropriate call
01/09/21 R.O.
24.146.13.237
Warren Steinley was first elected in 2019 although he had been a sask party mla for Regina so well known. The riding had been ndp in 2015 when Erin Weir briefly mp. its only existed under these boundaries since 2015 when new ridings were created for sask cities. Likely to stay cpc this year.
21/08/21 A.S.
99.225.52.35
Somehow, it seems brash to resignedly allow for a CPC clean sweep of Regina this time, particularly as btw/Scheer's leadership and Erin Weir's disgrace, '19's situation was a bit ‘unique’--though things don't look great, either. But it is interesting to see how baldly concentrated '19's NDP polls were in the Lakeview/Cathedral area, with nothing else beyond--suggesting that if it's all a lost cause under the present boundaries, they could always create a ‘Regina Centre’ riding next redistribution out of the corresponding parts of Regina's present three ridings, so they can at least salvage *one* opposition-friendly entity. Sure, a bit pathetic how things have to come to this, but...
08/08/21 Stevo
164.177.56.217
As in Saskatoon-West, the Liberal vote in 2019 collapsed and went to the Conservatives, not to the NDP. Since then, the Liberals have alienated the province, refusing Saskatchewan a deal on carbon pricing that would have been identical to the deal granted to New Brunswick. Little to no chance of the NDP taking this back for the forseeable future.
22/07/21 Garth
50.117.233.151
Most polls show the Conservative vote down more than 10% from the last election in Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the NDP vote up just less than 10%. If the Conservatives have lost support, this is one of the ridings where one expect to see it. If the NDP has gained support, the gains will be greatest in Regina, Saskatoon and Winnipeg. If the election is called soon, this riding will be in play.
11/05/21 VotreChoix
149.202.238.204
Likely will stay safely CPC for the time being. The previous NDP candidate even ended up switching to the CPC following the election.
14/09/21 Physastr Master
72.182.100.229
Due to the Conservative nosedive in Saskatchewan accompanying a significant PPC surge this is now in play. 338 is predicting a marginal NDP win, and tooclosetocall is predicting a marginal conservative win. This riding at least deserves to be marked as TCTC to remedy the degree to which it has been overlooked so far. Remember we are only one election removed from this being an NDP riding, and that was such a disastrous incumbency that the people of Regina really can't be blamed for wanting the NDP gone. The fading of the Erin Weir debacle from memory should help Regina-Lewvan's return to the NDP, but it is currently close enough that I think TCTC is the appropriate call



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