|With the Liberals' falling poll numbers in BC, they are likely to lose seats and this riding will probably be one of the first to fall. The NDP and Conservatives are probably the true contenders here; I'm just not sure which one has the advantage here.|
There is movement in the polls in BC. The NDP are doing well mostly at the expense of the Greens and are the only one of the big four that are up relative to 2019. The CPC has recovered but is down by one point and the Liberals are down by two points. Plugging that into my calculus I would think this will flip to the NDP.
I will now point out that I regularly anticipate the NDP picking up this seat and usually I am wrong. So if the grits hold on because of local candidate appeal, I won’t be surprised.
|If the last few days’ polls are accurate, Lib support has fallen substantially in BC. It wouldn’t take much to flip this seat.|
|The Liberals are collapsing in British Columbia. I see this going to the NDP.|
|NDP pickup as the polls in the province keep on indicating the NDP surging at LPCs expense.|
|It sounds like the NDP have not chosen a great candidate here and given that their last candidate was Svend Robinson it's safe to say this is a downgrade for them. All polling last election had the NDP more popular than the Liberals as a second choice for conservatives, so I think it's probable that the Conservative candidate's withdrawal actually helped the NDP, and they still lost. The Conservatives can win here in a deeply split race, but the debacle last election will probably siphon away some votes just due to inertia, making that somewhat unlikely, and the PPC won't help. There don't appear to be any provincial trends strong enough to swing much beyond what's already been laid out. Long story short, I think the Liberals win here by default.|
|The NDP nominated a bad candidate with Jim Hanson and has completely ignored North Burnaby at their peril, and there are almost zero signs for the NDP here. Meanwhile, Terry Beech has been actively campaigning in North Burnaby since he knows the NDP are ignoring it ands are concentrating on Seymour, where the sign war wages between the Liberals, Conservatives and the NDP.|
I think the NDP ignoring North Burnaby is going to cost them the win here, since they're taking voters for granted.
|Not a local comment. However NDP are up 4 points in BC, Liberals about on a par with 2019. All other things equal, NDP seems the most likely call here.|
|Mainstreet riding poll (I know take with a grain of salt as they had a few riding poll misses in 2019) shows a 1.5% CPC lead, but essentially a statistical 3-way tie (CPC, Libs & NDP all within the MOE). This one's up for grabs/TCTC: https://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/BurnabyNorthSeymour-iPolitics-08September2021.pdf|
|NDP share canvassing intel between province to fed. (They did when I door knocked for them, and assume the same still holds true.)|
The NDP BC campaign is apparently well organized. They will have a strong get out the vote movement. The Greater Vancouver Area dominates the mail in ballot requests. The assumption is that the is NDP is organizing this.
Look for Conservatives to Finnish second, and LPC 3rd.
|I know conventional wisdom is that adding a non-disgraced conservative will split the right and make the NDP win, but last election the NDP was running ahead of the Liberals in second-choice polls of conservative voters, so sadly maybe not... |
I'm tempted to think that adding a conservative will take votes from both the NDP and Liberals at similar levels, so where does that leave us? Probably a 3-way competitive race that we won't be able to call for a while.
|Actually, what's interesting about '19 is that Svend held on to his 2nd place advantage in Seymour, while the disgraced CPC candidate underperformed and virtually at par w/the Green candidate--that is, and surely for ethno-political-cultural reasons, Burnaby North was the stronger part of the riding for Heather Leung as well, and she even managed to win or tie in 9 polls. Which, if we may assume that Seymour's ‘natural condition’ is Lib vs Con, puts a different dimension to the hypothetical notion of an un-disgraced Leung helping Svend's chances--or to where Conservative strength came to be by the Scheer era: the Sino-socons vs the North Van Red Tories. Sure, there was some ‘what's he trying to prove?’ stigma still attached to Svend; but he did well enough to legitimate the Dipper option Seymour or no Seymour, and being next door to Jagmeet probably helps even more now than in '19, even with an un-Svend standard-bearer. And as for the NDP doing worse federally when they are in power provincially: the difference is that past federal elections have tended to happen either when the BCNDP-in-power was at a low ebb of their popularity, or when the federal party was in some kind of doldrums. Neither principle holds now, though who knows by campaign's end. Oh, and Seymour went NDP provincially last time around.|
|In 2019, the LPC/NDP vote split in BC was 26.2/24.4. Ipsos, Ekos, Leger and Mainstreet have all released writ period polls. Their splits are: Ipsos: 37/20; Ekos: 26/22; Leger: 38/22; Mainstreet: 28/19. I grant that the sample sizes for the province are small, but all have LPC at or above 2019 levels and all have NDP below. The average of the polls is 32.3/20.8, and all have the LPC advantage over the NDP widening. The average change from 2019 is +6.1/-3.6. Though the NDP seems to be doing better nationally than in 2019 and people might assume this would apply to BC where there is a reasonably popular NDP government, there is an established pattern of the NDP doing worse federally in BC when they are in power provincially. The evidence so far just doesnâ€™t point to the federal NDP doing well in BC.|
Unless the campaign goes sideways at the national level, with Terry Beech as a popular two-term incumbent and without long-time NDP MP Svend Robinson as the candidate, the Liberals should easily hold this.
|Too Close to Call. But leaning NDP.|
Svend who is an excellent campaigner isn’t running. Advantage Liberals
Conservative candidate had to bow out last election. Advantage NDP
This riding 3 way close race all dependent on local dynamics.
|Mainstreet riding poll:|
33% Libera,l 23% Conservative, 13% NDP. 25% undecided.
|This was a very interesting riding to follow last time, and this time around I think it is too early to predict a winner here. The Kinder Morgan pipeline terminal is in this riding, on the North Burnaby shore. Both portions of this riding are quite anti-TMX, even the North shore area, as it is quite a wooded area and relatively separated from the weird Lonsdale/Westvan mindset. Heather Leung also changed up the dynamic, which probably benefited the Liberals by a tiny margin, since the Conservatives here are more small c. Svend Robinson would not have been appealing to the small c conservatives.|
However, in 2021, the dynamic of this riding hinges on what the major campaign issues are going to be. I kind of doubt that Kinder Morgan is going be front and centre on the national radar again, but if climate change turns out to be a prime issues of 2021 again, then that would be highly beneficial for the NDP in this riding. In addition, if the Conservatives nominate a moderate candidate who isn't egregiously offensive like Leung, then the NDP will probably benefit from that as well.
While I think the latter is likely, it appears that the 2021 campaign is going to be focused on the economy, which is a more difficult cause for the NDP to harness support from, though if Singh is able to make some kind of effective national message on the matter, they may have the edge in this riding.
Realistically, the conservatives are not competitive here, and the Green collapse will benefit the NDP.
Will have to wait and see the direction of the election issues before being able to predict a clear victor.
|With Singh riding high in voter approval and the NDP solidifying around 20% nationally, they will pick up seats. This is very low-hanging fruit and should flip.|
|The NDP has nominated North Van councillor Jim Hanson. In the last election Svend Robinson was able to win North Burnaby, territory he had represented in Parliament and an area of traditional NDP strength, but lost on the Seymour side. With Hanson, will the NDP be able to close the gap? This will be an interesting race to watch, marking TCTC for now.|