Biley, Barbara
	Eppich, Robert
	Farlinger, Susan
	Johns, Gord
	Lawson, Susanne
	Lee, Mary
Incumbent:
	Gord Johns

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			114647 110324 57577 52346 7912.75 km² 14.50/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Gord Johns **	29790	41.20%
	Byron Horner	23936	33.10%
	Sean Wood	9762	13.50%
	Jonah Baden Gowans	8620	11.90%
	Barbara Biley	172	0.20%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Gord Johns	26582	38.10%
	John Duncan **	19714	28.20%
	Carrie Powell-Davidson	15212	21.80%
	Glenn Sollitt	8201	11.70%
	Barbara Biley	140	0.20%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		25798	44.89%
		23399	40.71%
		3860	6.72%
		3933	6.84%
Other		480	0.84%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Nanaimo-Alberni    (68.84% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Vancouver Island North    (31.16% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide

	25/08/21	A.S. 45.41.168.91
Perhaps a superficial explanation for the Johns-Blaney ‘swap’ might be through how Johns, unlike Blaney, faced a CPC incumbent in '15. And re the 3-way-race ‘could be’: actually, this was the weakest VI riding for the Greens last time, largely due to the Alberni-centric resource economy. So, two-way it was, and two-way it shall remain--and in fact, that Parksville-Qualicum spectrum is actually leaving me wondering if, in an O'Toole-in-front circumstance, there *might* be unforeseen danger for Gord Johns on the horizon. Which is why I'm withholding a prediction...for now.
	20/08/21	Walnut 184.66.107.187
This has been a Conservative-NDP battleground riding over the years and could become a three way race like neighbouring Nanaimo—Ladysmith with the Greens in the future. But Johns has been the green NDP cross-over candidate that has, so far, avoided that.
	17/08/21	Laurence Putnam 207.81.215.3
Opportunity for the Conservatives here was last go around with a flailing NDP campaign, a surging Green Party and the Tories on the upswing (at least in the West). That was then, this is now. Gord Johns should be safe.
	15/08/21	Sam 188.28.47.23
Interesting that Johns and Blaney swapped performances from 2015 to 2019 - though not really significant in predicting the final outcome. This was despite the CPC candidate being a very hard worker here. Provincially all of this riding's territory is now NDP, and even though the CPC will still gain a lot of votes in places like Parksville, they'll struggle here - they would have to rack up votes there to counter the rest of the riding. So long as the NDP isn't having a meltdown in BC, Johns will easily see another victory here.
	04/08/21	LeftCoast 207.194.253.26
Gord Johns is a popular and high-profile incumbent, and strong NDP areas (such as Courtenay and Port Alberni) still out-number strong Conservative areas (such as Parksville and Qualicum). NDP win.
	22/05/21	ME 45.72.200.7
This riding is a safe NDP riding according to 338