Groenewegen, Jane
	Kotchilea, Kelvin
	Laufer, Roland
	McLeod, Michael
	Mollison, Lea Anne
Incumbent:
	Michael McLeod

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			41786 41462 17666 14981 1143793.86 km² 0.00/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Michael McLeod **	6467	39.70%
	Yanik D'Aigle	4157	25.50%
	Mary Beckett	3640	22.30%
	Paul Falvo	1731	10.60%
	Luke Quinlan	296	1.80%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Michael McLeod	9172	48.30%
	Dennis Fraser Bevington **	5783	30.50%
	Floyd Roland	3481	18.30%
	John Moore	537	2.80%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		5001	32.11%
		7140	45.84%
		2872	18.44%
		477	3.06%
Other		87	0.56%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Northwest Territories    (100% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide

	17/09/21	Yellowknifer since 2009 50.117.250.226
The NDP will do better than in 2019 with a strong Indigenous candidate who will win over some of the previously Liberal Indigenous vote. The Conservative candidate, a woman from Thunder Bay who has apparently never been to the Northwest Territories and hasn't participated in a single debate or media interview, may achieve the feat of the lowest percent of the vote obtained by any Conservative candidate in the country. Most of the normally Conservative vote will probably go to Independent Jane Groenewegen, though a substantial number will stay home or spoil/refuse their ballot. A few disaffected centrist Liberals will probably vote for Groenewegen too. It'll be much closer than it was in 2019, but Michael McLeod will probably again prevail and be the only Liberal elected on a latitude between Vancouver and Winnipeg. I predict 34% for McLeod/Liberals, 32% for Kotchilea/NDP, 26% for Groenewegen, 4% for Mollison/Conservatives and 4% for Laufer/Greens.
	22/08/21	Sam 188.29.158.34
Perhaps if any, the best reason not to call this for the Liberals is how early in the campaign it is, and the vast unpredictability of the riding. Though they're probably the safest bet in this fairly splintered riding, on vote share and incumbency alone. The NDP's Kelvin Kotchilea delivered a respectable performance in a recent by-election, but beyond that he's unproven. It may be the case that the NDP try and do what they did in Nunavut - a young indigenous candidate who wants to offer a new style of representation, but Qaqqaq had the advantages of a younger riding and an open seat with no well-known Liberal.
	21/08/21	A.S. 99.225.52.35
The only territorial incumbent remaining; and judging from past margins, seems like it *ought to be* somewhat status-quo safe versus a fragmented scenario. But still; a sub-40% share, so I'll hedge, particularly if campaign shifts don't seem to be going Justin's way.
	06/08/21	J.F. Breton 207.253.54.66
La récente nomination de Mary Simon à titre de gouverneure générale ne devrait pas nuire à Trudeau dans cette circonscription libérale depuis 2015. Les Libéraux sont d'ailleurs en avance si on se fie à Canada338.
	06/08/21	Branden 70.71.182.169
While incumbent Liberal Michael McLeod is running again, due to the more candidate focused campaigns in the territories this should be too close to call until the campaign is underway and the other candidates are chosen