Thornhill

	Ginsberg, Jacob Joel
	Kambo, Jasleen
	Mikanovsky, Daniella
	Mirabella, Laura
	Patel, Hiten
	Pesis, Roman
	Polyakov, Aleksei
	Smith, Laura
	Tvorogov, Igor
	Ying, Brandon
	Zarkhine, Yakov

Incumbent:

		Gila Martow
Population (2016):			112719
Population (2011):			110427
2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)
		GILA MARTOW *
		28,889	61.13%
		EZRA TANEN
		9,134	19.33%
		SABI AHSAN
		6,985	14.78%
		RACHEL DOKHOIAN
		1,043	2.21%
		MIKE HOLMES
		621	1.31%
		ABOVE ZNONEOFTHE
		410	0.87%
		ALEKSEI POLYAKOV
		177	0.37%
2014 Election Result: (Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)
		16,688	43.28%
		17,228	44.68%
		3,089	8.01%
		922	2.39%
	OTHERS	631	1.64%
	Total Transposed		38,557
Component Riding(s)
	Thornhill (100.00% of voters in new riding) 2014/2011/2007 Predictions
2021 Federal Election Prediction
2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)
		Peter Kent **
		29,187	54.60%
		Gary Gladstone
		18,946	35.40%
		Sara Petrucci
		3,469	6.50%
		Josh Rachlis
		1,600	3.00%
		Nathan Bregman
		217	0.40%
		Waseem Malik
		77	0.10%
2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)
		Peter Kent **
		31,911	58.60%
		Nancy Coldham
		18,395	33.80%
		Lorne Cherry
		2,814	5.20%
		Josh Rachlis
		627	1.20%
		Gene Balfour
		587	1.10%
		Margaret Leigh Fairbairn
		157	0.30%

	30/05/2022	Tony Ducey 24.137.72.105
The new PC candidate may be a bit weaker than Martow but this riding is a strong PC riding, Smith should hold the riding for the PC's.
	29/05/2022	North 905 209.171.88.245
If you looked at the credibility of candidates this would go the Liberals with ease. But there’s too much apathy and ignorance in the riding, and Laura Smith may ride that wave to victory. Far from a superstar candidate, she took the PC nomination when many others passed at the opportunity. Thornhill has been known for having very strong community candidates for a couple of decades. Smith will pale in comparison and is likely the weakest potential MPP the riding has seen in a generation.
	18/05/2022	Will 184.149.37.144
I am not surprised that Gila isn't running again. She must not have gotten off on the right foot with Ford for whatever reason. Losing the federal nomination race was the last straw. Thornhill is one of the safest CPC seats east of Manitoba, however provincial races have been tighter in the past. I know next to nothing about Laura Smith but I do suspect she's headed to Queens Park. The only question is whether she gets 50% or not.
	28/04/22	LeftCoast 207.194.253.26
Heavily Jewish, pretty wealthy, this is just about the safest non-rural PC seat. New candidate Laura Smith will replace Gila Martow.
	05/04/22	A.S. 99.225.52.35
That Thornhill *wasn't* the best Tory riding in York Region in '18 might reflect the "moderating" influence of the Steeles frontier (whereas Markham-Unionville's more wide-open ethnoburban-sprawl interior)--but the *real* shock was the scale of Lib collapse; I'd imagine that *nobody* would have imagined they'd fall behind the NDP in what's traditionally been among the 5 or so weakest NDP ridings in Ontario. And I'd imagine that nobody'd be anticipating the same now--that the Libs have learned, and voters have forgotten, and we're not far from Del Duca country anyway. But that's only about repatriating 2nd place. And if the OLP can't do even *that*, then they're on the precipice of a no-official-party-status repeat.
	02/04/22	Stevo 164.177.56.215
This was the federal Conservatives' only majority win in the GTA last year, with Melissa Lantsman at 51%. Best the provincial Liberals can do is hold Laura Smith to around ~50% rather than the 60%+ achieved by Gila Martow.
	07/03/22	Lanb 76.66.120.71
The outgoing sitting MPP Gila Martow may as well be a de-facto independent, she's come out against her party on numerous occasions. She hasn't been visible since she was smoked by Melissa Lantsman (tells you what the riding thinks of her) in the federal nomination. Nonetheless, this riding has a history of sending PCs to Queen's Park both in government and out. Can't see that changing. Laura Smith may be unknown but she will ride the party name to victory.
	04/03/22	R.O. 24.146.13.249
No incumbent as Gila Martow not running again after a failed attempt to win federal nomination. The riding has been pc provincially for a number of years but not won by large margins like the federal seat has been although York region more favourable for pcs now so likely they?¢â‚¬â„¢d hold the seat. It appears new pc candidate is Laura Smith .
	20/05/21	Chris N 24.36.32.209
Much like the federal riding, Thornhill has become a PC stronghold over recent election cycles. Incumbent PC MPP Gila Martow has stated that she will not run for re-election. As of May 2021, no PC candidate has been nominated, but I'm confident that whoever the PCs will select will win the riding easily in 2022.