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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill


Prediction Changed
2021-11-04 01:12:00
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Dellerba, Catherine

Kasirlou, Marjan

Parsa, Michael

Pourzad, Reza

Strelkov, Igor

Wiseman, Rosaria

Zheng, Kevin


Incumbent:
Michael Parsa

Population (2016):

115227
Population (2011):106064


2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)

MICHAEL PARSA
25,21456.03%
NAHEED YAQUBIAN
9,71821.60%
KATRINA SALE
8,11618.04%
STEPHANIE NICOLE DUNCAN
1,1952.66%
SERGE KOROVITSYN
3130.70%
SANTIAGO AMESH DESILVA
2180.48%
MARGARITA BARSKY
860.19%
JANUSZ BUTYLKIN
710.16%
ABU ALAM
670.15%


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

15,758 45.72%
13,136 38.11%
3,629 10.53%
1,195 3.47%
OTHERS 747 2.17%
Total Transposed 34,464
      Component Riding(s)

Oak Ridges-Markham
(52.73% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

Richmond Hill
(23.95% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

Newmarket-Aurora
(23.32% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions


2021 Federal Election Prediction


2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Leona Alleslev **
23,56844.40%
Leah Taylor Roy
22,50842.40%
Aaron Brown
3,8207.20%
Timothy Flemming
2,1544.10%
Priya Patil
5301.00%
Serge Korovitsyn
5291.00%


2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Leona Alleslev
24,13247.30%
Costas Menegakis **
23,03945.20%
Brenda Power
2,9125.70%
Randi Ramdeen
6541.30%
Kyle Bowles
2430.50%


 

25/05/2022 Tony Ducey
24.137.73.188
The federal Conservatives lost this seat federally in the fall election but as so often happens in Ontario they'll go opposite of what is occurring federally and that means a win here.
27/04/22 LeftCoast
207.194.253.26
Liberal turned Tory Leona Allslev lost this seat federally to the Liberals, but PC MPP Michael Parsa is safe and will easily return to Queen's Park for a second term.
05/04/22 A.S.
99.225.52.35
The best thing Michael Parsa might have going for him is that he's a backbencher, i.e. he doesn't stick out as an always-in-the-news target for Liberal decapitation a la Stephen Lecce next door; if he goes down, it'd be part of a generic York Region u-turn, which is not *completely* out of the question under Del Duca. Then again, maybe defeating Leona Alleslev federally is all the Lib-led decapitation that suffices for the constituents for now.
30/03/22 R.O.
24.146.13.249
Michael Parsa was first elected here in 2018 , also the first election this riding existed under these boundaries so there was no incumbent. Marjan Kasirlou is the new liberal candidate and ndp yet to select one but not a riding there likely to focus on. This suburban riding is more pc friendly than nearby Richmond Hill riding so likely pc hold.
20/09/21 Sam
92.40.74.103
A pretty solid win for the PCs last time as the York region delivered for them - barring another sizeable Liberal majority I think the PCs will win here as the NDP aren't a factor at all, and the Liberals have many other targets in York region that they could win government with without necessarily needing this one. But it may be a challenge for them to break 50% again amid suburban anger.



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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022
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