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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Barrie-Innisfil


Prediction Changed
2021-11-04 01:13:00
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Dean, Grace

Hughes, Benjamin

Khanjin, Andrea

North, Bonnie

Olthuis, John

Reinio, Pekka

Steele, Ashlyn

Tucker, Jake


Incumbent:
Andrea Khanjin

Population (2016):

109286
Population (2011):101584


2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)

ANDREA KHANJIN
22,12149.97%
PEKKA REINIO
12,66128.60%
ANN HOGGARTH *
5,54312.52%
BONNIE NORTH
3,1907.21%
BRETT DORION
3960.89%
JAKE TUCKER
1840.42%
STACEY SURKOVA
1180.27%
ALEXANDER RYZHYKH
590.13%


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

13,733 37.51%
14,243 38.91%
6,211 16.97%
2,131 5.82%
OTHERS 290 0.79%
Total Transposed 36,608
      Component Riding(s)

Barrie
(67.44% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

York-Simcoe
(32.56% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions


2021 Federal Election Prediction


2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

John Brassard **
23,76543.80%
Lisa-Marie Wilson
15,87929.30%
Pekka Reinio
8,88016.40%
Bonnie North
4,7168.70%
Stephanie Robinson
1,0131.90%


2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

John Brassard
22,90146.40%
Colin Wilson
18,30837.10%
Myrna Clark
5,81211.80%
Bonnie North
1,9914.00%
Gary Nail
1990.40%
Jeff Sakula
1300.30%


 

25/05/2022 Tony Ducey
24.137.73.188
Easy hold here for the PC's. The other Barrie riding will be 1 to watch though.
27/04/22 LeftCoast
207.194.253.26
Should be a reasonably safe PC hold. Liberals have yet to nominate a candidate, but Mayor Lehman running next door might also lift the party here. This is the type of the seat the Greens should be focus on building their support in and could finish a strong third.
15/04/22 A.S.
99.225.52.35
The booby-prize sole riding in '18 where the Lib incumbent fell below the 15% deposit threshold (and its '95 Simcoe Centre predecessor was one of 2 that year where a *NDP* incumbent did likewise). Sure, things might shift generically leftward over the upcoming years; but the Barrie parts are pretty much filling out, and the real present-and-future growth is in the Innisfil part, which is really more of a piece with York-Simcoe, and *that's* currently in no danger of upset from generic leftward shift. And Reinio's one of those '18-style NDP shining lights giving it another go, which means we *could* see a rerun of '18's 2nd place for the party (particularly as it's the more "Lake Simcoe populistic" and less urban-Liberalish of Barrie's ridings--heck, the Libs did better with a non-incumbent in BSOM next door); but anything beyond that would be an extraordinary 1990-type circumstance.
29/03/22 R.O.
24.146.13.249
This riding in current boundaries has only existed during 1 provincial election although became a relatively safe cpc riding at federal level. As current mp John Brassard has held it for 3 elections now. The current mpp Andrea Khanjin was first elected in 2018 during her first attempt at running politically in the area. Pekka Reinio is back for the ndp and former green candidate Bonnie North also running again. Its unclear who the liberals will run.
09/09/21 Jacob
135.23.126.235
The current composition of this riding leans it toward the PCs. Federally this is a decently Conservative riding and BSOM tends to be more likely to go Liberal before the Barrie-Innisfil does. I expect the Liberals to make up much of their 2018 losses but I don't think this riding is going Liberal again at the next election given current trends. Even the 2014 transposition shows this riding leaned more conservative than Liberal. Others have commented in the federal predictions that the people moving to Barrie may shift it leftward in 5-10 years, and I agree, I just don't think this election will be the sign that it moves. It's early though so anything could change in the next year, this is just based off how things are/have been.



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