Bay of Quinte

	Charlton, Erica
	Collins, Rob
	Kelly, Alison
	Leneveu, Emilie
	Smith, Todd
	Wales, Noah

Incumbent:

		Todd Smith
Population (2016):			109735
Population (2011):			109488
2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)
		TODD SMITH *
		24,224	48.02%
		JOANNE BELANGER
		16,063	31.84%
		ROBERT QUAIFF
		7,511	14.89%
		MARK DAYE
		1,730	3.43%
		CINDY DAVIDSON
		396	0.79%
		PAUL BORDONARO
		379	0.75%
		JAMES ENGELSMAN
		139	0.28%
2014 Election Result: (Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)
		16,481	38.20%
		16,828	39.00%
		7,359	17.06%
		2,126	4.93%
	OTHERS	354	0.82%
	Total Transposed		43,149
Component Riding(s)
	Prince Edward-Hastings (60.60% of voters in new riding) 2014/2011/2007 Predictions
	Northumberland-Quinte West (39.40% of voters in new riding) 2014/2011/2007 Predictions
2021 Federal Election Prediction
2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)
		Neil Ellis **
		24,099	39.20%
		Tim Durkin
		22,650	36.80%
		Stephanie Bell
		9,851	16.00%
		Danny Celovsky
		3,740	6.10%
		Paul Bordonaro
		1,207	2.00%
2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)
		Neil Ellis
		29,281	50.70%
		Jodie Jenkins
		19,781	34.30%
		Terry Cassidy
		7,001	12.10%
		Rachel Nelems
		1,278	2.20%
		Trueman Tuck
		372	0.60%

	25/05/2022	Tony Ducey 24.137.73.188
PC's will hold on here. Smith's one of the more well known members of the Ford cabinet. Also before I get ahead of myself I'm using the https://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/ontario-2022-simulator.htmlto help me make predictions here but also I'm going with gut feelings in different ridings as well.
	27/04/22	LeftCoast 207.194.253.26
A hold for tory cabinet minister Todd Smith. The Liberals have nominated an impressive young candidate, and might be eyeing a two-election strategy to build her profile and get her across the line next time.
	17/04/22	A.S. 99.225.52.35
Todd Smith was a '18 rarity: a Tory incumbent reelected without a majority--that is, it wasn't exactly a *whopping* whopping amount he won by--but that's due to the largely urban and Loyalist-moderate nature of BoQ riding, which *probably* would have made it Liberal had it existed in this form in '14 and Todd Smith weren't running (though it didn't prevent it from finally falling to the federal Cons in '21). It might not be metropolitan, but it's sufficiently *micropolitan*, which is good enough to temper Tory-hinterland tendencies. And because '18 was '18, the promiscuous progressives flocked to the NDP instead--and when it comes to a riding like this and an eternal 3rd-leg force like the NDP, *anything* that hints at a 30%+ result registers as "we could actually do this, you know", a la the '90 Rae wave or '91's Orange Crush in Quebec. And who knows what of the future w/GTA retirees and economic/Covid refugees flocking to PEC and even Belleville/Trenton. But for the NDP to actually *score* this would be giddy-making majority and extreme-Tory-repudiation territory, while the Libs are coming from too far back this time for any advances to be anything more than an intermediate stage en route to 2026. Otherwise, all that could knock Todd Smith out would be a combo of 1990-style 3-wayism and some regional "Derek Sloan" factor thieving from the right wing.
	30/03/22	R.O. 24.146.13.249
Todd Smith was first elected here in 2011 although riding boundaries have changed since then as new Bay of Quinte riding created. Which is mostly city of Belleville but include some nearby rural/small town areas. Well known high profile mpp by now as he’s served in cabinet. New ndp candidate is Alison Kelly and Emilie Lenevue is liberal candidate.
	25/01/22	Finn F. 174.114.153.56
The Progressive Conservatives won this riding by a whopping amount in 2018, and it stands to reason they will win it again. This was a close riding federally in 2021, but the federal Conservatives came away with the win, and that was with the People's party sucking away votes from the tories, and with the Federal Liberals being far more popular than the provincial ones.