Orleans

	Blais, Stephen
	Bourdon, Gabe
	Clements, Vince
	Feli??n, Melissa
	Lewis, Ken
	Petersen, Michelle
	Randall, Liam

Incumbent:

		Stephen Blais
Population (2016):			128281
Population (2011):			119247
2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)
		MARIE-FRANCE LALONDE *
		24,972	39.05%
		CAMERON MONTGOMERY
		22,509	35.20%
		BARBARA ZARBONI
		14,033	21.94%
		NICHOLAS LAPIERRE
		1,603	2.51%
		SAMUEL SCHWISBERG
		435	0.68%
		GERALD BOURDEAU
		398	0.62%
2014 Election Result: (Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)
		29,688	53.26%
		18,639	33.44%
		5,034	9.03%
		1,978	3.55%
	OTHERS	406	0.73%
	Total Transposed		55,745
Component Riding(s)
	Ottawa-Orléans (93.90% of voters in new riding) 2014/2011/2007 Predictions
	Glengarry-Prescott-Russell (5.01% of voters in new riding) 2014/2011/2007 Predictions
	Nepean-Carleton (1.09% of voters in new riding) 2014/2011/2007 Predictions
2021 Federal Election Prediction
2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)
		Marie-France Lalonde
		44,183	54.30%
		David Bertschi
		22,984	28.20%
		Jacqui Wiens
		9,428	11.60%
		Michelle Petersen
		3,829	4.70%
		Roger Saint-Fleur
		986	1.20%
2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)
		Andrew Leslie
		46,542	59.70%
		Royal Galipeau **
		23,821	30.50%
		Nancy Tremblay
		6,215	8.00%
		Raphaël Morin
		1,410	1.80%

	30/05/2022	R.O. 24.146.13.249
This riding hasn’t generated a lot of attention not even sure if any party leaders have been here. the pc candidate this year is Melissa Felian , a rookie candidate who appears to have been miss Ottawa in 2019. This riding has been pc/cpc in the past but shifted more liberal in recent elections so Stephen Blais would still seem to have an advantage, although it was fairly close in 2018 despite not being close in the by election. With polls showing a big pc lead province wide would expect numbers here similar to 2018 not 2020. Should also not Pat Stogran was listed as a candidate for None of the Above on Wikipedia early on but appears to have not made the final ballot so not a candidate.
	31/05/2022	Mark W 205.193.82.252
I am really surprised the ON PC Party have not fielded a stronger candidate I believe Blais can be defeated, he upset a lot of his constituents by leaving Cumberland Ward un represented when he decided to run to replace MF Lalonde at Queens Park. Also his relationship to the flawed LRT contracting process leaves a stain on his resume
	29/05/2022	Marco Ricci 174.114.237.78
Yes, this riding definitely looks set to go Liberal again. I live in this riding and Blais definitely has a large lead in lawn signs, with much fewer for the PC's and NDP. The PC's and NDP are putting in some effort here -- I saw the PC's going door to door in my neighbourhood, and the NDP has put up a considerable number of signs in intersections and public places. So although Blais is the clear frontrunner, the PC's and NDP look like they want to get a respectable showing.
	29/05/2022	Tony Ducey 24.137.72.105
The Liberals probably will not be forming government in Ontario on June 2 but they should keep many of their current seats including this long time Liberal stronghold.
	28/04/22	LeftCoast 207.194.253.26
Easy win for Liberal incumbent Stephen Blais. Interesting to see former Veterans Ombudsperson and federal NDP leadership candidate Pat Stogran running here for the "None of the Above Direct Democracy Party".
	18/04/22	LFCOttawa 174.114.107.158
MPP Blais should win this easily. It's my home riding. While I'm angry at Del Duca calling for an extension to mask mandates, I will still likely vote OLP here as he is a great MPP for our riding, and I doubt the PC's will run anyone with cabinet potential.
	17/04/22	A.S. 99.225.52.35
Believe it or not, this has had a recent history of PC top-targeting, a bit through its being reasonably well-to-do suburban (even if w/a Franco-Ontarian tinge), and a bit as a hangover from a second-Harris-term breakthrough in '99. But fueled by Ford Nation's lack of appeal in the Ottawa area, Orleans somehow defied the trend in '18--and in an instant, went from a commonly-perceived "vulnerable" seat to a "safe Liberal" seat. And I agree--at this point, if it couldn't fall in '18 (or in the subsequent byelection), it surely won't fall now, unless the Libs are reduced to a BCNDP '01 type of caucus.
	15/03/22	R.O. 24.146.13.249
Stephen Blais was elected here is a 2020 by election 1 of only 2 that took place since the last election , he had previously been an Ottawa city councillor for the area. It wasn?¢â‚¬â„¢t really close although riding has seen some close races in recent years and had been pc the last time they were in government back in 1999. But unless they find a star candidate they currently list no candidate for the riding . its a likely liberal hold but would like to see who the candidates are for the riding
	10/06/21	David 65.95.248.19
Marie-France Lalonde won by over 2,500 votes in the Liberal disaster that was 2018. She successfully won this riding as the federal Liberal candidate in 2019 and Stephen Blais won here in a by-election when the PC province-wide polling numbers still had them 12-14 points ahead of the Liberals. Orl?ans should easily stay in the Liberal column.