1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Dave Toor
Progressive Conservative Party:
Raminder Gill
New Democratic Party:
Vishnu Roche
Roy Willis

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Brampton North (40.44%):
Joe Spina
Brampton South (26%):
Hon. Tony Clement
Mississauga North (20.3%):
Hon. John Snobelen

Member of Parliament:
Gurbax Malhi

Population: 103 589
Avg Household Income 59 806
Language (Home)
English 82 945
Punjabi 5 745
Italian 3 860
Submitted Information
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Too Close
03/09/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
No incumbents running--the odd riding out in Peel Region's redistributions. With Malton having become a predominantly Indo-Canadian community, it is that population increasingly calling the political shots here; all three major candidates (and the standing Liberal MP) are of Indo-Asian origin. Like many of Toronto's "ethnic" suburbs, Malton itself strongly supports the Liberals; Bramalea has more "old stock" Ontarians, and hews Tory. The last two federal elections have seen Malhi's margins been reduced by Bramalea voters reluctant to vote for anyone with a turban; three Asians running certainly neutralizes the "race factor". Although its population's better off than the blue-collar impression left by Boeing, Chrysler, etc. might indicate, from my calculations this would have been the only thoroughly NDP riding in Peel in 1990. Despite Malton's own continued Liberalism, BGMS would have gone with the PC flow in 1995, but not by too large a margin. If the PCs hold here, it'll be held as symbolic of their having conquered the hitherto wary suburban "ethnics" and "vizmins"--not unlike Reform when they elected several Asians in 1997. But understandably, given the riding's clean slate and ethnic makeup, the Liberals will be looking here to reestablishing any kind of foothold in Peel. The NDP may have to wait.
04/18/99 Mike O'Brien Email: l.obrien@nf.sympatico.ca
They tried to call this one PC federally (on the prediction website in 97), but it had Liberal patches all over the place and it has a history of being more friendly to the Liberals.
05/27/99 Just another voter Email:
Gill's comments about the homeless all being mentally ill at an all candidates meeting which is scheduled to run again this Sunday night was stupid. Who does he believe he is? His constant mention of "our team" and "our record" was also an attempt to pass himself off as the previous MPP.
05/30/99 Brad Nicpon Email: nicpon@execulink.com
Not only is this riding in line for a tory sweep through the 905 belt, but it includes portions of the tradionally conservative area of Brampton. (Bill Davis' old area) The liberal candidate is not high profile, and the NDP have no chance at all in the middle class suburbs of the 905 area. As well, in response to a previous comment; don't think that the federal liberal influence will have anything to do with the provincial outcome. (That almost goes without saying)
05/31/99 Just another Voter Email:
Further to Mr. Nipcon's comments about Federal Liberal influence having no effect: where have you been the past eight years? All three Brampton ridings are solid Liberal and the Liberals held both Provincial ridings until a Blue wave brought Harris in four years ago - along with passeners like Clement and Spina. There won't be a wave this time and Mr. Gill should examine his ethics: he apparently will say anything and offend anyone to score points from his two "massars" tony and Joe. Of course Brampton has changed my friend, even if you have missed it or can't accpet it. Too bad. You'll eventually notice mutliculturalism is here. I hope you can rip yourself away from the hockey games on TV to look around at the signs - very red and all over!
X 06/01/99 B. Fallon Email: maltonmanor@msn.com
Although given only a one sentence mention at the end in the Toronto Star's write-up on the riding, Independent Roy Willis may benefit the most here. He is very well-known among the voters in Malton as he ran second string against Frank McKecknie in the municipal elections for the last 20 years. He has also been front-and-centre in most community functions and committees during that time as well. Point of fact, in Malton, he is the most recognizable candidate, if not for the fact that he is the only non-Asian candidate running. Numbers simply don't bear-out the perception that BGMS is a predominantly South Asian area. In Malton alone, they only make-up about 20% of the population based on Census Canada's last check, with Brampton having even less. As life-time Party affiliation becomes a thing of the past, the less well-to-do and less educated of the voting public, will vote for the name they most recognise. It truly will be a very ethnically based riding win here.

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Last Updated 2nd June 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
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