1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Brampton Centre

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Gerjet Grewal
Progressive Conservative Party:
Joe Spina MPP
New Democratic Party:
Paul Schmidt

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Brampton North (59.24%):
Joe Spina
Brampton South (18%):
Hon. Tony Clement

Member of Parliament:
Sarkis Assadourian

Population: 100 431
Avg Household Income 63 634
Language (Home)
English 85 260
Portuguese 3 160
Punjabi 2 510
Submitted Information
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02/18/99 PF Email:
This could be an interesting one to watch. The Tories have a very vulnerable incumbent with a questionable legislative record. The Liberals are in disarray with no hint of a nomination meeting. The NDP could surprise with a strong showing. Their candidate, Paul Schmidt, has been working the riding since November. Schmidt has impressive credentials and his background as an educator (he's currently a High School Vice-Principal) will likely draw significant teacher support in a riding where there are a significant number of teachers and where education is the number one issue. He will also have strong labour support and, given the right split, could win the seat. In any case, if the NDP is to make a breakthrough in Peel Region, this is the most likely bet and if the Tories begin losing seats, this may be one of the first to go. Keep your eye on it.
02/26/99 J. Smith Email:
NDP will never pull more than 20% in a riding with these domographics. 97 fed election only saw them with less than 10% of the vote. 95 Brampton North saw them with about 14%. Education is not #1 issue with this riding, health and taxes are. teachers living in the riding make up less than 1% so don't expect much change. Brampton is a strong traditional Tory city as the traditional stomping grounds of former Premier Bill Davis. PCs won with 50% ov vote in 95- expect almost the same. Libs are in deep trouble as their preferred candidate may not be able to win a nomination meeting over others. Expect Leader Dalton McGuinty to appoint his candidate at the last minute in a stunning anti-democratic move. PC incumbent has been canvassing since 95 and well respected in city. Expect PCs to pull through no matter what vote splits are.
03/03/99 PF Email: pferreir@pathcom.com
I respectfully disagree with Mr. Smith. The riding is no longer the Conservative bastion of Bill Davis. Consider that the Liberals held the old provincial Brampton seats (North & South) from '85 to '95 and the Liberals ***easily*** won the three federal Brampton seats in '97 as proof that the city is changing. It is now very ethnically diverse and boasts a large number of lower and low-middle income earners. As for the comment that the NDP will never pull more than 20 per cent -- actually, the NDP would have won the riding had it existed in 1990. In that election, the Tories finished third in both Brampton South and North and would have finished third in Brampton Centre. History aside, the opposition to the Tories appears to be coalescing around Schmidt's NDP campaign. Given the continuing troubles in the Liberal camp, this points to a very interesting campaign. It is by no means a guaranteed Tory seat. Far from it! And despite Mr. Smith's claims, education is the top issue in Peel Region. Mouldy portables, fewer teachers, labour disruptions -- all education issues and all front and centre for the past year.
03/08/99 adam Email: adma@interlog.com
It's close, but even if Joe Spina pales as an incumbent, if (IF) the 905-belt wind's in the Tory sails, he'll benefit. It's worthy to note that from my 1995-figure calculations it's the "safest" Brampton riding for the Tories--mainly by excluding heavily "ethnic" and Liberal-friendly polls in Mississauga. But as Brampton itself is not so whitebread anymore, who can tell. I have a few comments re the NDP. If PF is who I think it is--the local NDP candidate in the past federal election--then he can't be called a "neutral" source. Furthermore, despite what he says, from what I roughly calculate out of 1990, the Liberals would still have been slightly ahead of the NDP in Brampton Centre--it's Bramalea etc. to the east which the NDP would have "taken" that year. But I do give credit where due, that there may indeed be a little leftward rumbling going on here. After all, the NDP got their second highest 905-belt vote here in 1997--the highest: Oshawa, Ed Broadbent's old turf. (Yes, I know, congratulations;-)) Furthermore, Schmidt performed very credibly as the Parkdale-High Park candidate in 1997, earning 20% and second place to the Liberals. Candidatewise, campaignwise, it's truly a best-case scenario for the NDP, should they be on the path toward reestablishing itself in Peel--but I'm hedging bets until the Liberal situation is resolved. And if a strong NDPer leads to a split opposition, well...
03/12/99 M. Cooper Email:
There is not question that the race in Brampton-Centre is shaping up to be a close one. Despite this I could not see anyone winning the riding, aside from Progressive Conservative MPP Joe Spina. The Brampton area is with out a doubt is traditionally Tory. In 1987 and 1990, the old Brampton-North and Brampton-South ridings voted for the Liberals. But after all the Tories only won 16 seats in 1987 and 20 seats in 1990, the two worst showings for the Progressive Conservatives in Ontario history. In 1995 when the Progressive Conservatives led by Mike Harris made a come back both Brampton-North and Brampton-South soundly voted for the Progressive Conservatives once again. Prior to 1987, both Brampton constituencies consistently voted PC. There has been some speculation that the NDP candidate, Paul Schmidt has a chance at taking the seat. But the fact of the matter is that in 1990 when the NDP took 74 seats, neither Brampton-North or Brampton-South voted NDP. How could the NDP take Brampton-Centre when they are sitting at 10-15% in the polls, when they could not even take Brampton during their best days. Because of the fact that the NDP has a strong candidate in the riding, the NDP will likely split the left-wing vote, which will allow Progressive Conservative MPP Joe Spina to come up through the middle. And after all the Harris Progressive Conservatives are overall a popular government, and I'm sure the PCs can count on Brampton-Centre to fully endorse the common sense agenda of Mike Harris and his Progressive Conservative government.
03/12/99 The Insider Email:
Brampton nORTH voted 50% PC Spina in 95 over a tough Liberal incumbent in Carman McLelland who was supposed to be a possible cabinet minister under what's her name's leadership. Now the riding picks up an area in the south that voted over 60% PC last time. Chances only get a lot better for Spina and PCs.
03/27/99 TG Email:
The NDP candidate visited my house in Peel Village this morning. I'd already received two pieces of literature from him. I must admit, I was impressed. I also learned that he's been endorsed by all of the teachers' groups. My neighbour was similarly impressed. Schmidt seems to have his campaign going well and I have yet to hear anything from the Liberals. If Spina gets beaten, look out for the NDP. Never thought I'd say that Brmapton but I guess times are changing.
04/12/99 The Real Insider Email:
Hmmmmm, is Joe Spina concerned about the NDP campaign? He was spotted Saturday madly tailing the Paul Schmidt in one of Spina's supposedly safest areas of the riding . . . Perhaps Spina realizes something others do not -- the NDP campaign is for real. In another piece of news, look for Schmidt to unveil his campaign headquarters later this week at a prominent intersection. Certainly more visible than Spina's bunker, which is buried on the third floor of a rather invisible building.
04/14/99 Rick Email:
Spina will canvass entire riding- as he has been doing since elected. Campaign offices don't determine elections. Ask your candidate about the $60 million to build 12 new schools and renovate 18 others at the Dufferin Peel Catholic school Board. Schmidt, as an employee at that board, should be very pleased that the Harris governments education funding formula is delivering the goods!!!
04/21/99 A. Email:
This one could go any way. Although Spina is well respected, he's also made a lot of enemies in the riding. The Liberals normally do OK here, but they've been very, very slow at choosing a candidate, and the NDP has done a good job with their pre-election work (not to mention their best provincial candidate in the area in a long time). So...maybe Spina, maybe Schmidt, and the Liberals' chances will depend on who they choose.
05/02/99 Don Juan Email:
Liberals nominated Gurjit Grewal as candidate- a unknown who beat a school trustee for the nomination. He has little chance as being the one to knock off the incumbent Spina is the Tory strength of 905 country.
05/27/99 Just another voter Email:
Don't count on me this time Joe. You made a fool of yourself at the all candidates meeting this week. No excuses, you flopped by yelling at the audience. It only helped the Liberals by showing off that tough guy red neck routine which is starting to wear on us! I don't even know the Liberal but he scored points while you concentrated on volume!
05/28/99 From the Left Email:
The real winner of the debate was Mr. Schmidt. He took the Tories to task for their horrendous track record on municipal downloading, health care and education. Want proof that he was the most impressive candidate: check out the Star's coverage of the meeting. The Schmidt campaign has momentum (a visit from Howard Hampton drew more than 200 and the defeated Liberal nomination candidate has thrown her support behind Schmidt); the Liberal campaign is showing signs of desperation; and the Tory is vulnerable. The Tory is still the favorite, but this is an interesting one to watch -- could be real close on election night and may very well be the biggest surprise in the province.
05/31/99 Not from the far left! Email:
I've been a member of this riding associaiton for almost twenty years and also know just about every Liberal (long term) in the nearby ridings. Eilain Moore was not a Liberal:she was just another opportunist trying to hop onto a bus. She missed and just like Anna Maria Casterelli then cried and whimpered to the press who want stories so they don't have to work hard writing one. Spina may get in here, but as a Liberal, I'll do whatever it takes to keep out your parachuted NDP candidate. It shows the complete intellectual bankruptcy of the "dippers" that they can't even field a real candidate. Schmidt didn't win any debate - especially the Heritage theatre debate. That winner was clearly Spina until he flipped out. Schmidt came across as avery convincing liar, no tmust more. My first vote would be Liberal and next (sorry Paul!) but it would be Spina. Grewal and Spina have at least invested in the riding. Schmidt is just visiting. His time as special advisor to Dave Cooke should paint a vivid picture for the voters of our riding. We don't need an irresponsible clown like that back again. NDP governments provide excuses for right wing extremes. A vote for the NDP, any NDP is a vote for Harris.
An earlier PC contributer to this survey stated that, "many Federal Liberal supporters vote PC or NDP in the provencial election". Since he has such good information he must also be a federal Liberal Supporter and will know that this area was close last time and this time it is not even a fair contest. Sampson definately is a loud talker but isn't very deep in the thinking department. Landslide Winter win here is likely and with Liberal polls now coming up fast, it can only get worse for the Tory here. Looks like the new education minister will represent Brampton centre!
06/02/99 Ralph H. Boyce Email: boyce49@home.com
This is a tight race between the NDP & PC candidates. I however feel the NDP candidate will take it, unless the divisive tactics being employed by some Liberal volunteers is effective.

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Last Updated 2nd June 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
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