1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Stephen White
Progressive Conservative Party:
David Tilson MPP
New Democratic Party:
Noel Duignan
Green Party:
Richard Procter

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Dufferin Peel (100%):
David Tilson
Grey-Owen Sound (7%):
Bill Murdoch
Wellington (18%):
Ted Arnott

Member of Parliament:
Murray Calder

Population: 98 460
Avg Household Income 60 151
Language (Home)
English 94 460
Submitted Information
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03/08/99 Ariella Email:
This is the cruel heart of 905 Torydom, but we did go Liberal in 1987. I would say that Tilson has an 90% chance of winning at the moment. However, if the Liberal nomination meeting picks Steven White, who's a very strong candidate, that figure will go down to about 75%. Tilson has taken some flak lately for municipal downloading and mould in school portables. Still, it remains questionable whether the Liberals can turn that into an election victory. Stay tuned.
03/23/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Like his neighbour Ted Chudleigh, Tilson's reputed to be one of the "kinder, gentler" Tories--besides, this is old Perrin Beatty country. Of course, some would say Mike Harris has made a hash out of such "kinder, gentler" fantasies; nonetheless, this remains standard safe party domain, and might have been so in 1987 if Dufferin-Peel hadn't been an incumbentless "new riding" (which invariably went Liberal that year). The best Liberal launch-pad hopes are founded in the lower reaches of Caledon (including Bolton), where there's a bit of less-homogeneous exurban overspill effect from Brampton, Mississauga, and Vaughan. Hope's not lost, but...
05/13/99 Ariella Email:
I've been out talking to people lately, and I'd say Tilson's chances are down to about 50% against Steve White. Apparently, Tilson's office has a reputation for not communicating well with constituents who have problems and many people are grumbling, even in his hometown stronghold of Orangeville. A huge proportion of the population is undecided at the moment and the riding could swing either way.
05/17/99 Email:
I have been working the 905 belt (Door/door) for the past 15 days. Anger is the best word to describe things. The results for most of the 905 ridings here haven't been updated recently but I'd expect readical swings over the past two weeks. Most Tory cabinet members hailing from 905 ridings are prime targets and based only on the sign war you can expect surprises here. Tilson has never been really great at the door step of his voters and the riding population contains large numbers of autoworkers who have designated Steve White here over the traditional NDP leanings. Noel Diugnan was a complete unknown when he was swept into power with the NDP's and Tilson may have benefit from same trend during last election in Ontario. Strategic voting and Tilson's inability to put together any type of real riding team have left him in a pickle. Expect a dog fight with slight edge to White.
05/18/99 Ron Email: macnr@interlog
I went to the all-candidates meeting last week in Caledon East. No NDP candidate there. The amount of hostility against the ruling party was surprising. All but Tilson were willing to participate in an all-candidates meeting in Bolton. White seems to have a slight edge in the private property sign wars.

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Last Updated 21st May 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
This site is maintained by Milton Chan