1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Garry Minnie
Progressive Conservative Party:
John O'Tool MPP
New Democratic Party:
Jim Morrison
Green Party:
Gail Thompson
Natural LAw Party:
Jacinthe Millaire

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Durham East (89.5%):
John O'Toole
Oshawa (20.2%):
Jerry Ouellette

Member of Parliament:
Alex Shepherd

Population: 91 254
Avg Household Income 58 431
Language (Home)
English 87 555
Submitted Information
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03/14/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Whatever O'Toole's personal/political merits (or lack thereof), this is one of the least prepossessing GTA constituencies for the opposition to target. Some of the reasons: it's at the fast-growing easterly outer edge of the notoriously Harris-friendly 905 belt, the proportion of "new Canadians" is quite low, it still has plenty of classically conservative small-town and farm country, Reform's done particularly well here, and it is just about one of the only 5 or so ridings in all of Ontario that, under the present boundaries, might have "gone Tory" in the PC annus horribilis of 1987. And judging from recent provincial voting patterns within these boundaries (affected, admittedly, by Oshawa's presence, as well as the merits of individual candidates), one might be excused for believing that the NDP, and not the Liberals, are the "logical" opposition to endorse. But whatever the party, there's no use in not trying...
04/19/99 J C Email: 8jc3@qlink.queensu.ca
John O'toole without a doubt is the lead candidate in this riding. Due to it's demographics, rural with the fastest growing "suburban" population in the 905 belt traditional tory support is only increasing. O'tooles biggest disadvantage is the fact that he has been on the back benches, his provincial profile isn't that high. I'd have to agree with the administrator with the obvious second choice being NDP. The only reason this riding went liberal federally was because of internal struggles of the federal PC party.

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Last Updated 1st June 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
This site is maintained by Milton Chan