1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Mississauga Centre

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
George Winter
Progressive Conservative Party:
Hon. Rob Sampson MPP
New Democratic Party:
Gail McCabe
Natural Law Party:
Bob Harrington

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Mississauga West (60%):
Hon. Rob Sampson

Member of Parliament:
Carolyn Parrish

Population: 98 140
Avg Household Income 65 128
Language (Home)
English 71 745
Chinese 4 020
Portuguese 2 535
Polish 2 020
Submitted Information
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03/06/99 M. Cooper Email:
I can confidently predict that Mississauga-Centre will back the Harris Tories in the next provincial election. Mississauga-Centre is a traditional Tory riding that backed the PC's federally until 1993. With a strong Tory incumbent and a popular Tory government it would be very difficult for anyone to win this seat aside from a Tory.
03/20/99 Burke Christian Email: external@msu.mcmaster.ca
This riding has a fairly good chance of going Liberal in the next election. George Winters is a local school teacher and the OSSTF have declared this riding a winnable riding. Education is the one issue that resonates with voters in the 905 belt and could impact this riding. I would not count the Liberals out of the race in Missisauga Centre.
Too Close
03/22/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
I'd agree that this may not be such a drop in the bucket for the PCs--and not only because Mississauga Centre scored the best "905" Liberal result in 1997. (And I suspect that given the present profile, it has more the makings of a pre-93 PC/Lib "swing" riding than of a simple Tory stronghold; it's not Mississauga South.) In effect, much of this is Mississauga's "inner city", dense in feeling, ethnically polyglot and with a significant amount of multiple housing. Only the sometimes extravagantly upscale neighbourhoods along the Credit Valley and Mississauga Road (especially those closest to the QEW) are *guaranteed* Tory strongholds; meanwhile, many of the newer suburban tracts have a history of directing their ethnicities to Liberal advantage. The 1995 provincial result here would have been the smallest PC-Liberal margin in Mississauga, though some of that may be attributed to previous MPP (and present Mississauga West MP) Steve Mahoney's residual personal popularity. On the other hand, Rob Sampson is probably, with Tony Clement, the solidest PC player in all of the Peel Region ridings, which may bolster his chances a bit...
04/08/99 NOW Email:
Cooking up a Tory defeat By Enzo di Matteo
Tory Rob Sampson hasn't exactly set the world on fire as privatization minister without portfolio. By the way, Rob, whatever happened to the promised auto insurance reform?
With few community credentials to draw on, banker Sampson, who was parachuted into the riding, has the Tory tide to thank for his surprise win over Grit incumbent Steve Mahoney in 95.
Premier Mike's coattails are a little more worn these days, and the teachers' unions have targeted the riding. That a secondary school teacher, George Winter, has thrown his hat in for the Grits provides a little extra incentive for the unions.
The area's federal Grit MP, Carolyn Parrish, has already set the tone by deriding Harris as "a silly little premier" when Tory MPP Dan Newman showed up in Ottawa to slam the feds for cutting health transfers to the provinces.
04/18/99 Mike O'Brien Email: l.obrien@nf.sympatico.ca
Rob Sampson will probably go down to defeat. Has more to do with changes in the riding. In any case, not really going to go tory any more. More of a case of a one-timer from Harris landslide.
04/19/99 J C Email: 8jc3@qlink.queensu.ca
I think the biggest challenge the liberals in this riding is be the fact that the candidate is a teacher. Lower-middle class individuals, were hit the hardest by the teachers strike. They paid the highest percent of income for their childrens childcare. The Harris government helped them out with childcare subsidies, and I have a feeling they won't be quick to forget that.
Regarding Auto Insurance reform, the harris government did bring it in. The 4-5% reduction made a difference to my insurance and certainly made an even more significant impact on those who were not in high income situations.
04/19/99 A. Email:
Although this area went strongly Liberal federally, that's not really an argument...just about EVERYWHERE in Ontario went strongly Liberal federally, but that won't stop many, many Tories and New Democrats from getting themselves elected at the provincial level (remember '93 vs. '95?) The fact is, many federal Liberals vote for other parties provincially. This is clearly the case in much of the 905 belt, and Sampson has a very strong organization that should be able to beat back the challenge from Winter.
05/10/99 Mohar Budhram Email: mohar.c.budhram@myna.com
With regards to Rob, he does not respond to people in his riding, returns no phone calls, always has his take on the issue unless you are rich and influential. The man and his party cannot be trusted.
05/29/99 Email:
Over his last term I have phoned and written to Mr. Sampson over concerns about downloading, education, and health care. Any response that I received proved that he was singing the party song instead of representing Mississagua. The usual response was a party produced pamphlet. George Winter will be a good choice. I have been very impressed with his response to questions. With downloading, we must have someone who will speak for this area.
05/31/99 CPH Email:
This will clearly go Tory. The influence of the '905' vote and the strong campaign run by the incumbent, Sampson will pull him through.
06/02/99 Brad Nicpon Email: nicpon@execulink.com
This should not be a difficult Conservative win... Sampson seems to have put a strong effort into his campaign, and on top of that he is a cabinet minister, and is running in a tory stronghold area. I don't think that his lack of returning phone calls is going to bring him down in an upper-middle class riding that has Conservative branded all over it.
06/01/99 Warren Lee Email: warren.lee@apexmail.com
I live in the geographic centre of this riding and walk my dog around it every day. My lawn-sign poll indicates that George Winter has the edge. Rob Sampson was mostly invisible until the election was called. Still undecided myself. Wish I could fold this hand and get a new deal.
06/02/99 Brad Nicpon Email: nicpon@execulink.com
With all due respect to other people here, I seriously don't believe that the fact that Mr. Sampson did not return some phone calls or letters will result in his demise. The vast majority of voters never write a letter or call their MPP, most probably don't even know how. Mississauga is another case of a win based on party and leader. A tory cabinet minister in a middle class suburban area spells out PC win to me.

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Last Updated 2nd June 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
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