1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Christopher Topple
Progressive Conservative Party:
Jerry Ouellette MPP
New Democratic Party:
Colleen Twoney
Natural Law Party:
Garry Kotack

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Durham Centre (38%):
Hon. James Flaherty
Oshawa (79.8%):
Jerry Ouelette

Member of Parliament:
Ivan Grose

Population: 105 405
Avg Household Income 48 654
Language (Home)
English 96 580
Submitted Information
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Too Close
03/14/99 Email:
Conventional Wisdom says this is a 905 Tory riding but there's also a large union presence here due to the CAW and this may be one of those ridings where the CAW's tactical voting strategy will help the Liberals.
03/14/99 Email: 3arb@qlink.queensu.ca
Organised labour is furious at the Tories for their anti-labour law... this is a traditional NDP riding which recently went Tory due to conservative blue collar voters. However, these voters just happen to be those Tory voters who are strong unionists and hate the Tory's pro management legislation. Look for a Tory collapse in this riding and a possible move back to the NDP
03/14/99 A. Email:
Colleen Twomey defeated an ex-MPP (among others) for the NDP nomination here. She's a former CUPE official and active on the local social justice committee. Unlike many area New Democrats in recent years, she has strong support within the CAW and should be able to take this riding back from the Tories.
03/16/99 A. Email:
Yet another accidental Tory victory last time around, and this time the NDP is running a prominent community activist in Twoney. They'll win the seat back.
04/14/99 Brian Email:
The riding is just aching to send a message by defeating accidental Tory MPP Jerry Ouellette. Ouellette is counting on the Reform-Tory coalition continuing but the Reform half is collapsing ( see the Federal Windsor by-election for confirmation). Voters will support the candidate best able to beat Ouellette and it seems to be Twomey at this time.
04/16/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Thanks to its exceptional electoral profile and history, Oshawa cannot be judged by typical 905-belt standards--but because Oshawa *has* been gradually subsumed by the GTA karma, I'm still viewing it as a tossup. The problem is that Ouellette didn't just win this "accidentally" in '95, he won it *big*, stunning the NDP's Allan Pilkey with double his vote and a clear-majority advantage almost equal to his Durham neighbours...almost as if there was an epiphanous regional element running deeper than CAW conservatism. (Besides, the right-wing vote's always been a wasted vote in Windsor, while Oshawa was very clearly a Reform target in both '93 and '97.) A lot depends on how well Howard Hampton succeeds in framing himself as an attractively earthy left-wing version of Harris in '95, or as a modern echo of favorite son Ed Broadbent. But I still can't automatically deem this to be Twomeyville in '99. Or Ouellette Town, for that matter.
04/18/99 Mike O'Brien Email: l.obrien@nf.sympatico.ca
Tories would need to have a candidate in place by now to have a shot. They need organization to counter massive opposition gains in polling in 905 area in recent years. Ouellette might be able to help the Liberal out, but The unions will probably give the NDP the push they need.
04/19/99 J C Email: 8jc3@qlink.queensu.ca
It would appear that some have jumped to conclusions regarding this riding. It brings with it the interesting dichotomy of highly paid but unionized workers. The question I pose is will the constituents be voting with their pockets or pay cheques? Voting with their pockets in the sense they would be looking for more tax cuts, resulting in a conservative win. There pay cheques reffering to the unions who deducts fees from them every two weeks. It would be my wager that middle class oshawa will be looking for more tax cuts. With resent investment in the Oshawa General Hospital in the way of a Cancer Centre the number one issue is certainly in Jerry Oulettes favour. In all fairness I wouldn't rule out the liberals. They may have the rare advantage of benefitting from a vote split. With the traditional fight for the left vote being pre-empted for a very untradition fight for the loyalty vs personal gain. It could turn out to be a very interested riding in the end!
04/26/99 Jordan I.J. Berger Email:
Liberals have no campaign here -- CAW and other unions will unite behind the one candidate who can beat the Tory -- the NDP's Colleen Twomey.
05/05/99 Jerry Email:
Divisions in the NDP camp since the contested nomination have decimated the NDP machine. Many long time supporters are going to the Liberals in order to defeat Harris. If this trend continues, chalk this one as a Liberal upset.
05/22/99 Chuck McPhail Email: w5p@hotmail.com
This riding has a high percentage of union households, which would seem to make it a natural home for New Democrats. Indeed, the NDP, has won this riding on numerous occasions in the past. However, the PC's, have also won it, but not as frequently. But generally, the battle is between these two parties.
Many are now saying that this riding is up for grabs, and the betting is that the NDP could pull off an upset win here. Well, not so, in my view.
Remember, Oshawa is part of that 905 belt that swung heavily Tory last time around. This belt is the rockbed of Tory support in this province. If this support ever crumbled here, that means Tory support is definitely gone elsewhere in the province. However, I don't see this happening at all. If anything, Tory support within this belt(for the most part), is solidifying and maybe even actually growing.
I believe most union members will not vote for the opposition parties, just as they didn't do the last time. They have no reason to. Generally, they like what Harris is doing, particularly, regarding his economic policies. Yes, a number of them may be alittle nervous about his approach to health care and education, but for the most part, not concerned enough to abondon him. They like him because they believe and trust him.
I think it will be a battle for second place here between the Liberals and the NDP, but the Tories will definitely retain this riding with a comfortable margin.
05/23/99 PHA Email:
Well a recent poll indicates that the tories are winning, the Liberals second, the NDP a distant third. The whole fate of this riding's election, and the province in general, is on the level of hate NDP voters have for Harris? Do they hate him so much that they will, by a majority, plug their noses and vote Liberal? Or will enough of them stick with their party, true and loyal, and give Harris a majority? Quite frankly, we will wait and see?
05/23/99 Jerry Email:
Your recent decision to change prediction is premature. There is a lot of confusion in this campaign. The Tories seem to be invisible on the ground but the polls indicate otherwise. It would be wise to ignore rogue polling especially polls favouring the Tories in the Toronto Sun. This one is going to be a nail-biter to the end. Look for the results some time after midnight.
05/26/99 hander_a Email: april@tinys.cx
I see many NDP signs in my riding yet have not heard any predictions for my area. My thoughts regarding Oshawa's riding is that we are mainly a union city having GM, etc. Harris is not for unions.
05/29/99 P. Kasman Email:
The CAW has throwen their wight behind the NDP in this riding and this is the town of the auto workers. This will be the one seat in the 905 bealt that goes NDP.
05/31/99 M. Ring Email: mikering@hotmail.com
One recent poll in the Oshawa News should be discounted because the president of the Liberal Party in Oshawa is also the president of the polling company. It was a thinly disguised attempt to siphon off NDP votes to the Liberals (in fact, the pollster had a pro-Liberal guest editorial in the very same issue). Colleen Twomey remains the candidate of choice for anti-Harris strategic voters, and the NDP have averaged 40% in Oshawa in the last three elections (adjusted for the new riding boundaries).
If the rsults in this riding differ as much from The Oshawa News poll as I believe they will, there should be an investigation into the journalistic integrity of The Oshawa News and its association with its prefered pollster.
06/01/99 Email:
The NDP seems to have gained back the support of the CAW, whose withdrawal of support doomed the NDP in this region for nearly a decade. Although Colleen Twomey isn't a CAW member, they have been backing her fully, and this should help her win back this traditional NDP seat.
06/01/99 sylvain Email: psperron@yahoo.com
everyone is saying that the liberal dont have a campaign either the people are blind or dont see anything they are doing more then anyone else in this riding and the candidate chris topple is the one that can bring a change here in oshawa, the poll done by the oshawa news is good and to the point jerry ouellette left the caw meeting before the end one hour before the end to go to another important meeting he said eh was going to a sport meeting where he was speaking in place of meeting the caw worker, for colleen twommey she is riding in a 1950 era car and we are not seeing her around at all, so when people say that the union are behind twommey well better check again because most union are going with chris topple the reason he is defending a lot of union member at the workermen compassation board canada pensions and others board and he is near the people and he got my vote in oshawa, not the ndp that cannot even make the next gouverment, so in place of telling some untruth about the campaign tell the truth, the liberal may take this riding on thursday and may also be the next gouvernment concerning the poll it was done and paid by all the party for the information of all, so saying that it was fixed well sorry the ndp, pc and the liberal paid for it and knew about it so if they pay for it and approuved it where the problem, and also like the person is saying about it why did not one newspapers, local tv or major newspapers pick up the story and did a article on it, and also to show why i think the liberal might win against jerry ouellette, he been using a polling firm from western canada to do phone call for is poll research and they dont even know who is mike harris, also why dont they used local people to make the call they would contribute making jobs but no they have to go elsewhere to do that that is why i say the liberal will win and not the ndp and torries

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Last Updated 2nd June 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
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