1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Jeff Leal
Progressive Conservative Party:
Gary Stewart MPP
New Democratic Party:
David Nickle
Green Party:
Larry Tyldsley
Natural Law Party:
Robert Mayer
Bob Bowers
Kenneth Burgess

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Peterborough (93%):
Gary Stewart
Hastings-Peterborough (37%):
Harry Danford

Member of Parliament:
Peter Adams

Surrounding Ridings

Population: 107 289
Avg Household Income 43 870
Language (Home)
English 103 315
Submitted Information
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03/05/99 I.MacFarlane Email: imacfarlane@accel.net
The incumbent is not well thought of, after spending four years in the tory backbenches. I won is part due to the Tory tide sweeping the broader GTA area. Is currently involved in several matters involving his travel agency that are getting local coverage. Is facing a well known local alderman who has served on city council since the mid 1980's. Will be a close race but the liberals are most likely to win over a weak Tory Incumbant.
03/07/99 glb Email:
Dave Nickle is well known in the Peterborough area for his battle to halt the Tory cuts to education. With education and health care as the two primary issues in the upcoming campaign he has a good chance of success.
03/09/99 A. Email:
Dave Nickle is a well-respected candidate who has managed to put together a formidable campaign team. Peterborough is one of those ridings that has elected MPPs of all three parties in recent years, and it's traditionally been a very close three-way fight. Look for Nickle to pull ahead.n
03/09/99 I.MacFarlane Email:
The NDP candidate is over rate by some since he is the OSSTF head in the area. Most of the local teachers do not support him at all. A great number of teachers took part in the liberal nomination process in Peterborough and Jeff Leal has strong ties with the rank and file teachers in town. Education will be an election issue but Healthcare is seen as being much more important in a city with a large base of Seniors, Jell Leal is a much stronger candidate when it comes to healthcare having represented a area of the city which has a large number of seniors for more than ten years.
03/12/99 aD Email: ad477@torfree.net
Jeff Leal has a great deal of youth support that will be mobilized during the campaign. He also has a great deal of support amoung Municipal politians in the city and county. Nickle is inexperienced, (just reads the platform straight from the book to an audience) and Stewart is out of touch with those in the riding.
03/17/99 RR Email: r_rotchild@hotmail.com
I don't know what the people that have posted here already are doing, but they should hurry up and get their heads out of the sand! Gary Stewart will win the election because of a vote-split by Nickle and Leal. Although Leal is a good and decent person, Stewart's appeal in the rural areas is still strong and the silent majority still supports him. Nickle is a non-player. He's a one-issue candidate with litte to no chance of even registering on the map. Leal will show well in his ward and downtown--no where else.
04/17/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Common Sense went over real big in the Kawarthas, and Peterborough provided a spectacular textbook example of how the Harris message conquered the voters; a canny, grassrootsy electoral machine (which included upper-echelon Reform/UA organizer Nancy Branscombe) gave Gary Stewart triple the vote of beleaguered NDP incumbent Jenny Carter (an ill-fated early Rae cabinet minister), and over double the vote of the Liberal candidate, Peterborough's former (and subsequently returned) mayor Sylvia Sutherland! And it might appear that the PC base has been fortified by the inclusion of more of rural Peterborough County (including the Havelock-Belmont-Methuen area, a stronghold for CoR in '90 and Reform in '97). But it's still a predominantly urban riding, and with his awkward and rightish record, Stewart might be looking a little shopworn--the problem is: whither the opposition? The Liberals might look more "natural", yet despite the Jenny Carter fiasco the NDP (whose candidate was one of the first nominated) also has a strong long-term base, especially in the central core, and may also benefit from the area's university-town and artsy-literary undertones and a bit of residual Elmer Buchanan-ness in the sticks. Between a councillor (whose wardmate, incidentally, is Branscombe) and an educator, there's a conundrum as to where the most critical endorsement chips will fall, and it could just lead to those dreaded "silent majority" forces slipping neatly up the middle. But it surely says something that the opposition isn't simply lying prostrate before Stewart's forbidding '95 result...
04/18/99 L.O. Email: petercashin@yahoo.com
A tough one to call. Right now, I'd still say there isn't enough concentrated discontent with tories for either the Liberals or NDP to have a shot. Liberals might have a better chance. But Tories should keep it by a hair.
04/18/99 Mike O'Brien Email: l.obrien@nf.sympatico.ca
The PC's are going to loose seats in this election but this probably won'tbe one of them. They have enough strength from the last election so that they would have to shift a LOT of votes to loose it. The best shot on the outside would be a Liberal victory, but this one's probably going to slide tory with a substantial drop in popular vote for them.
05/12/99 Nation Post Email:
For Whom the Bellweather Tolls by John Ibbitson
There are several other ridings that once were bellwethers, but must now be declared safe Tory seats. Peterborough, for example, used to go with the flow, but Gary Stewart won the riding by more than 12,000 votes in 1995 and the rural bits now added to his riding have almost always voted Conservative.
05/14/99 M Mattos Email:
Dave Nickle is NOT a one issue candidate. Over the past couple of years Dave has been in attendance at a wide variety of forums. I have been consistently impressed with his knowledge of the issues and the history and background of those issues. I've also been impressed with his ability to present his ideas and get his point across in down to earth people friendly language. And very impressed with his ability to really listen to people, remember what they've said, treat everyone with respect and really stick up for the issues. I was I'm sure, one of many people who approached Dave and suggested he would be a good candidate.
THE NDP have a very good chance at taking this riding. Historically, in Provincial terms, it is due for a return to NDP. This past week, Stewart was booed at an all candidates meeting. It looks like he's toast. Support is dwindling. The question will be whether Leal can pull it off and how the vote will split. Nickle has a good amount of momentum, good broad based support, LOTS of signs out, and if the Hampton visit was any indication early on, a very dedicated core eam. When Howie returns with a boost, I'd say they've got a chance. Nickle's support is not overrated because he was OSSTF prez, this is something I would have said was a downfall for him pre-campaign. I think not now. Peterborough has the chance to SWING! Watch us move somewhere other than the governing party on election night!
05/21/99 W. Jones Email:
Gary Stewart has no chance. Healthcare will be the main issue in the riding and he has consistantly fumbled the ball on that issue, first denying the fact that there is a shortage of doctors in the area and secondly when the person died in the hallway on the civic hospital and was only found when family members found him in the morning. This has convinced most that the tories cannot handle the issue of healthcare. After going NDP once in the past few election most in the city myself included have vowed never again. Dave Nickle is not a bad person or candidate its the party he is running for that causes problems. Most people will support Jeff Leal a long time alderman.
05/25/99 Daphna Email:
I'm here in Peterborough, and thanks to the strong showing by Mr. Hampton in last week's leaders debate Gary Stewart will carry this riding for sure--due to a now inevitable vote split between the Liberals and NDP. Word on the street is that Leal has been nearly invisible since the writ has been dropped while Nickle's past job as OSSTF president is killing him. Rural parts of the riding are still going STRONG PC with a three-way split in the city between the parties. A guaranteed Conservative victory here on June 3rd.
05/25/99 Scott Smith Email:
Peterborough and its citizens are upset and hurt by the PC governments cuts. Our town lost St. Joseph's hospital, Sacred Heart school and Central school. We still have a high unemployment rate and many minimum wage earners. The voters of Peterborough will see past the Mike Harris campaign of more lies such as tax-cuts, and increased health-care spending we will also see past the liberals changing views and un-calculated government spending. Peterborough will vote for the only alternative today's NDP.
05/31/99 G.F. Email:
Despite the current polling for the Peterborough riding, I think it's going to be closer many think. Stewart, like Harris, has been seen as campaigning in a bubble. Leal, the Liberal candidate, has been very quiet. Nickle has been the most aggressive in his campaigning by attending many specific events. At my house, I have received more NDP literature than any other party. I think Nickle will capture a large number of the soft Liberal and undecided vote because of his aggressive campaign.
05/31/99 J.B. Email:
I think Dave Nickle has a good chance of taking this riding. Historicially, the N.D.P. have taken seats in this riding before. Many people are upset with the closing of one of our hospitals and the visible homelessness that dramatically increased since the Conservative party has taken power. Dave Nickle is a strong leader with a social conscience that will follow through with his promises.
05/31/99 J.B. Email: kayaker@cgocable.net
I think that your recent change to the prediction on this site is not accurate. The NDP have a very good chance here and many people want to vote strategically. In this riding, that means voting NDP.

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Last Updated 2nd June 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
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